Dark Horse in Valley

[agrinut]

My comment about BU being like Missouri State last year is they have a bunch of new faces and a senior guard. I think they are highly overrated but thats just me.

But last year's MSU team didn't have a returning POY candidate. Bradley will have that along with an all-Newcomer forward in Pickett. Only Wichita State has more coming back in terms of league honors. Plus, 2 of BU's 3 incoming freshmen were consensus 3 stars while none of MSU's were.

I don't know how this season will play out and you may be right but if that happens it won't have anything to do with a Bahamas game in which the rules are different and Ford is experimenting with minutes and a newcomer heavy lineup probably without regard for the final score.

Who is a potential POY on BU Lemon? Funny how you guys are gonna be so much better than a team that beat you easily at away, and you needed a bank in half court heave to hold serve at home.....

[agrinut]

I think that's a pretty simplistic view of Loyola...

I don't want to complicate things. Why should I expect more out of bad team from an inferior conference? My Bears were putrid last year but they would have beat your ramblers.

Well, to start, LU had the 6th youngest team in D1. Additionally, we were without our best player (Averkamp) for a month with concussion problems. At that same time, we also lost our point guard (this was a plus and a minus since it allowed Jeff White to get playing time as a freshman and show his worth). Some of that time overlapped with the loss of our shooting guard. So, for February, we were playing with 6 scholarship players.

When you look at our record last year, you will see that we lost 7 games by a combined total of 12 points. Several of those were on last second shots.

Our record does not indicate how competitive we were last year. I disagree with the assertion that MSU would have beaten LU last year but there is no way to prove either of our assertions (other than the measurable stats, of which LU had the advantage in all categories).

Finally, I'll say this. Our biggest problem in the Horizon was that we played to our opponents. We ALWAYS played Butler tough (and even took games from them during their most formidable years). Honestly, I think MSU would find similar ground if you all had to play Youngstown State and the other Ohio state universities. Thankfully, we won't have that problem in the MVC.

MSU was the $th youngest team in D1, anyone that followed this league knows that they got much better as the year went on. MSU was also without one of their best players in Jarmar Gulley. The fact remains that you won less games against easier competition.....

[shoxrox]

My Bears were putrid last year but they would have beat your ramblers.

I don't think you can assume things like that with your team, when in the same year they were losing to SWAC opponents.

[Mikovio]

Who is a potential POY on BU Lemon? Funny how you guys are gonna be so much better than a team that beat you easily at away, and you needed a bank in half court heave to hold serve at home.....

I actually think Bradley and MSU will finish 4th and 5th, and probably within a game of each other. That heave was right in front of me. It never should've come to that. IIRC, Bradley led by about 20 midway through the game, dialed back the pressure and nearly gave the game away as MSU scorched the nets.

I think Bradley's improvement will hinge on improved shooting and depth over last year. Looking at the stats, it hasn't been proven on this Bahamas trip and I'm a little bit discouraged but I'm not going to panic.

[Dean Wormer]

I don't want to complicate things. Why should I expect more out of bad team from an inferior conference? My Bears were putrid last year but they would have beat your ramblers.

Why is a Missouri State fan getting so butthurt because someone mentioned that Loyola or Bradley could finish ahead of them? After your non-con last year, I don't see how you can call someone out for being inferior.

Realistically, 3rd through 8th is a crap shoot at best. I think UNI is pretty safe to stay out of Thursday night, but I don't think you can make a strong enough case for any of the rest at this point. If I had to pick right now, I would say it's ISU Red and Missouri State at 7th and 8th, and that is solely based on the fact that neither Mueller or Lusk has proven they can coach in this league yet, nothing more. With as many unknowns as there are right now, coaching is the only thing you can base any prediction on. Simmons and Jacobsen at this point seem to be safer picks than Lusk.

I am jumping on the Loyola as the darkhorse bandwagon, because it makes as much sense as anything else right now.

[Wufan]

I don't want to complicate things. Why should I expect more out of bad team from an inferior conference? My Bears were putrid last year but they would have beat your ramblers.

I kinda doubt that. The Bears couldn't beat ANYBODY. Had they played Loyola in the non-con, I would have taken Loyola.

How about Bears as a dark horse? They finished…9th last year? If they finish 6th that would a HUGE improvement.

Non-con wins for the Bears:

Philander Smith - no RPI for D-II
Malone - no RPI for D-II
Eastern Michigan - RPI 236

Non-con record for Loyola:

Toledo - RPI 193
Rockhurst - No RPI for D-II
Maryland Eastern Shore - RPI 345
Northern Illinois - RPI 332
Tennessee Tech - RPI 242
Furman - RPI 343
Mississippi State - RPI 230
St. Peters - RPI 289
Depaul - RPI 204

In case you feel that Loyola was given the benefit of an easy schedule, I would like to point out that Loyola was 8-0 in non-con games against opponents ranked 193 or higher. Missouri State was 1-4 against non-con teams ranked 213 and higher. If only the bears could have handled some of those pesky SWAC teams!

AWESOME! You should talk more smack!

If you don't like these numbers, pull your own and see how you fair. Regardless of how the Bears do this year or have performed in the past, last years non-con was the most embarrassing thing I have ever witnessed from a Valley program.

[Redbird Recon]

My Bears were putrid last year but they would have beat your ramblers.

Hypothetically close game

[GoRamblers]

MSU was the $th youngest team in D1, anyone that followed this league knows that they got much better as the year went on. MSU was also without one of their best players in Jarmar Gulley. The fact remains that you won less games against easier competition.....

We have one common opponent...Valpo. We beat them on their court (by 9) and then lost to them at home (by 9). You lost to them at home by 8.

By every metric, your team was at the very bottom of the NCAA (328th in ppg, 331st in rpg, 323rd in apg, 302nd in field goal percentage) While we "won less games against easier competition," we had better ppg, rpg, apg and managed to crack the top 100 in field goal percentage. Not to mention, MSU was 122 in points against giving up 64.7 ppg. Loyola was 64 in the nation giving up 62.4 ppg.

Am I saying we would have wiped you off the court? No chance in hell. But by all measurable metrics, we would have beaten you.

[glm38]

MSU was the $th youngest team in D1, anyone that followed this league knows that they got much better as the year went on. MSU was also without one of their best players in Jarmar Gulley. The fact remains that you won less games against easier competition.....

We have one common opponent...Valpo. We beat them on their court (by 9) and then lost to them at home (by 9). You lost to them at home by 8.

By every metric, your team was at the very bottom of the NCAA (328th in ppg, 331st in rpg, 323rd in apg, 302nd in field goal percentage) While we "won less games against easier competition," we had better ppg, rpg, apg and managed to crack the top 100 in field goal percentage. Not to mention, MSU was 122 in points against giving up 64.7 ppg. Loyola was 64 in the nation giving up 62.4 ppg.

Am I saying we would have wiped you off the court? No chance in hell. But by all measurable metrics, we would have beaten you.

We were putrid in the non con. IMO Loyola would have beaten us during the 1st half of the season. Totally different team during the 2nd half though and IMO no way we would have lost to you. But I happen to be of the opinion that Loyola will be better than expected. I think they stay out of Thurs.

[agrinut]

I don't want to complicate things. Why should I expect more out of bad team from an inferior conference? My Bears were putrid last year but they would have beat your ramblers.

I kinda doubt that. The Bears couldn't beat ANYBODY. Had they played Loyola in the non-con, I would have taken Loyola.

How about Bears as a dark horse? They finished…9th last year? If they finish 6th that would a HUGE improvement.

Non-con wins for the Bears:

Philander Smith - no RPI for D-II
Malone - no RPI for D-II
Eastern Michigan - RPI 236

Non-con record for Loyola:

Toledo - RPI 193
Rockhurst - No RPI for D-II
Maryland Eastern Shore - RPI 345
Northern Illinois - RPI 332
Tennessee Tech - RPI 242
Furman - RPI 343
Mississippi State - RPI 230
St. Peters - RPI 289
Depaul - RPI 204

In case you feel that Loyola was given the benefit of an easy schedule, I would like to point out that Loyola was 8-0 in non-con games against opponents ranked 193 or higher. Missouri State was 1-4 against non-con teams ranked 213 and higher. If only the bears could have handled some of those pesky SWAC teams!

AWESOME! You should talk more smack!

If you don't like these numbers, pull your own and see how you fair. Regardless of how the Bears do this year or have performed in the past, last years non-con was the most embarrassing thing I have ever witnessed from a Valley program.

We are not talking about non conference.... No one had even mentioned non conference.