Who controls the future of the MVC?

[CBB_Fan]

The next 5 years are going to be big for the MVC going forward, and will set the tone with Creighton's departure. Either the league will continue to be one of the top basketball conferences outside of the power conferences, or it will fall back to the pack of mediocrity.

The important difference between those two is the ability to get at-large bids (and preferably multiple bids). Even when a conference has one outstanding team, the conference still is in the mediocre camp without competition (ex: WCC when only Gonzaga was dominant, CUSA with Memphis, various others with rotating strong teams). So the Valley's future does not depend on Wichita State, or any other single team being dominant. If the Valley has one strong team, that reflects well only on that team.

So does the Valley depend on the teams that have been consistently good, like UNI or Evansville the last few years? Those teams are important, but consistency is just one part of the formula. If the Valley has good teams in the top four, but only one goes to the tournament then it will still be a one-bid conference. So the teams that consistently make the best of their budgets are not going to be the key, though they need to stay at the same level (and occasionally have great seasons).

I believe that the real key for the Valley will be the teams like Bradley and Loyola (possibly Missouri State and SIU). These teams have the pocketbooks to improve themselves, but currently are not competing for at-large bids. If those teams can improve themselves, then at the very minimum those teams that are currently going to the NIT would have the RPI to get a better shot at an at-large bid. At best, those teams can improve enough to significantly raise the profile of the Valley to closer to the A-10, which can still get multiple bids even with the departure of several very good teams.

So for the Valley to be nationally relevant instead of regionally relevant, we need the bottom teams to recruit better and hire better so that eventually they can play better. These teams have the potential to raise the Valley up or keep it down, and that makes them essential. But even if they improve their teams, it won't matter unless those teams have the potential for good wins. That means that scheduling as a whole needs to go up as well. The Valley desperately needs a scheduling mandate to return, given how important strength of schedule is. This is on each team and on the league office.

So the Valley is going to rise and fall with Wichita State, or whoever is the next dominant team when the cycle shifts again. It isn't going to depend on the team's that are consistent. We are all depending on those teams with untapped potential. Obviously they cannot all compete for Valley titles each year, but we need at least one of those teams each year to play to their potential so that the Valley can get multiple bids. We also need the opportunity to get big wins OOC so that wins in the conference mean something.

So no matter how much us Wichita State fans feel the Valley revolves around us, that simply is not true. And even if SIU returns to dominance or a team like UNI has a year or two like 2009, that won't matter if those teams are alone at the top. The truth is that the conference needs to have at least 2 and preferably 3 or more teams that are nationally relevant, and that has to come from the bottom.

[Aargh]

So does the Valley depend on the teams that have been consistently good, like UNI or Evansville

Evansville consistently good? I'd like to see some stats to back up that claim.

I believe that the real key for the Valley will be the teams like Bradley and Loyola (possibly Missouri State and SIU). These teams have the pocketbooks to improve themselves

Missouri State and SIU with deep pocketbooks? SIU sank to unprecedented depths under Lowery because SIU could not afford to fire him when it was needed. MSU is on the low end of the BB coaching pay scales in the Valley. MSU is more often seen as financially challenged rather thn having deep pockets. Hammond gives them buildings that he can put his name on, but he isn't giving them much scholarship money for a FB team that doesn't draw real well.

If the Valley is going to remain competitive, there are going to have to be a lot of alumni making big contributions to support athletic department budgets. Paying a coach $750,000 a year doesn't guarantee a winning program, but paying less than $500K is almost a guarantee that your coach will leave as soon as he has some success. Jacobsen at UNI is bout the only exception to that I've seen in the last decade.

[BCPanther]

The Valley got really good in the Mid-2000s when UNI and WSU got good. One 'traditional' power and one 'awakened' program.

The keys this time are Loyola and SIU. If those two can really get something put together and make a climb towards the top, the league will jump back into the 'best non-power 5' discussion again, if those two can figure out some sustained success, the league takes a big step forward.

Missouri State and Indiana State will continue to go in spurts because they don't financially support their programs to the necessary extent. Bradley has shown they'll spend the money, but results are mixed so far (I think Geno will have success there, fwiw). Evansville is Evansville and they appear content with what they're doing now. Illinois State has really underachieved and with the terrible hire of Dan Muller they look to be Thursday team for a considerable while longer. Drake will be interesting to watch and is a complete wildcard at this point (I didn't like the Giacolletti hire, fwiw. I would have thrown the world at Bruce Pearl and then gone from there)

[Cdizzle]

Bradley or bust. For a lot of reasons. C'mon Geno. Don't let me down.

[Red]

The A10 and the MWC control our future. If either come looking for new schools, I am sure the Bradley's and Wichita State's of the world will jump ship.

[BCPanther]

The A10 and the MWC control our future. If either come looking for new schools, I am sure the Bradley's and Wichita State's of the world will jump ship.

Mountain West isn't taking anybody that doesn't play football. I don't think the A10 wants to come this far west again.

[TheAsianSensation]

We need to go a bit deeper with our legitimate teams. To use the WCC as a reference point, they have a big 3 of Gonzaga/St Mary's/BYU, with another team or two peaking into that group once in awhile. Another reference point, the MWC has had New Mexico/SDSU/UNLV be at the top for a few years now. For us, Wichita is #1 and UNI is good enough to be a #2 IMO, but we need a #3 to emerge, and more importantly, to stay there for a few years.

The opposite side is what happened to the Colonial. What happened to them is the model for what could destroy the MVC's strength. First conference realignment (ODU/VCU and Creighton) took away some of the strength. Teams failing to build on big tournament runs (Mason and Bradley) took away a little bit more. Teams who were once to be counted on (Hofstra/UNCW and SIU) took major steps back just when the conference needed them. And the mid-table teams, when they would up with the best teams, were suddenly unable to fill the role of leading the conference in the years they got near the top. To elaborate on the last point, that's because either their non-con SoS was so bad (Drexel and IlSU losing what would have otherwise been cinch at-large bids), or they were unable to take advantage of their peak years (Drake flaming out early in the tourney, William & Mary and Missouri St unable to find the tournament in their peak year, Northeastern failing to get to the tourney when they established themselves as top dog last year, Indiana St failing to get to the tourney with signature wins in hand, and so on). And finally, the bottom teams hurt both the CAA and MVC in recent years (bad SoS in both cases).

The takeaway is this: when you have a legit team, be ready. We need our peak teams, our cyclical teams, to have high up cycles. That's what made Indiana St's late slide last year hurt so much. We need to be able to turn that into an at-large team on a consistent basis. For this year, we need to be able to turn one of UNI/InSU into an at-large team. Our peak needs to be better, and we need to find another lynchpin at the top (preferably one who has the budget for it. I'll homer up and say Bradley since they've got the most resources, but any will do).

[TheAsianSensation]

The A10 and the MWC control our future. If either come looking for new schools, I am sure the Bradley's and Wichita State's of the world will jump ship.

I'm actually a bit more optimistic about realignment now. A-10 has now established they want to stay east. MWC, even though I still think it's insane, doesn't want a balancing partner for Hawaii (seriously, I have no idea why they're not pursuing a non-FB). MVC kinda has the midwest to itself now.

[Bluejay09Bear06]

LOL @ UNI poster throwing stones re: financial support of athletics.

[TheDrake]

IMO almost the entire conference is trending up right now.

Wichita State has the coach, resources, and fan base to continue sending teams to the tournament for the foreseeable future.

Bradley has the facilities and the coach they need to succeed and their administration is willing to spend the necessary money to win. The Braves will be visiting the Tournament again sooner rather than later.

UNI will be consistently solid for as long as Jacobson is coach.

SIU should continue to get better while Hinson is there and assuming Loyola invests the money they've said they would, the ramblers have the ability to be a consistent top-4 finisher in the conference.

Missouri St. should be pretty solid for the next 5 years as should Evansville.

It will be interesting to see what happens at INST when Odum graduates. Hopefully they can remain where they've been.

Illinois State has been recruiting well. It's just a matter of what Muller is able to do with the players.

Drake is just about to break ground on an 8 million dollar practice facility for next year and the administration is willing to commit financially to basketball. http://www.bbstate.com/info/teams-hoopsbudget&c=VALLEY
The bulldogs have an experienced coach who knows what he's doing and are paying him appropriately. Des Moines is one of the largest cities in the Valley and people have shown that they'll support Drake when Drake is good.

Moving forward I see Bradley, Drake and potentially Loyola as teams that haven't been successful recently, but should be very successful within the next 5 years.