2013-2014 Bracketology thread

[TheAsianSensation]

Because it's never too early to whine about someone's non-con SoS.

I'll put my projections in here throughout the year, and I invite more to do the same. This can also be used as a good general catch-all for all postseason-related topics that may be thoughtful enough to talk about but maybe aren't worth their own thread. And having a centralized thread for all big-picture thoughts about the tournament will help.

I'm also going to shamelessly plug my blog. I'm trying to set up a more permanent home for my detailed pontification. Blog will have a decidedly national flavor to it, as opposed to the more MVC-centric thread here. Spread the word if you like my work. There's a few preview posts up, and more coming in the next few days.

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/


As for now, I'm just going to apologize for what Bradley's SoS is going to do to the league this year.

[MSUDuo]

Love your stuff as always TAS. Looking forward to seeing more of it this year!

[TheAsianSensation]

Observation made on the Lunardi bracket, that is of some note to Wichita.

With Kentucky and Kansas both down on the 4 line, and Wichita on the 3 line, the St Louis regional opens up for WSU.

Wichita would have to beat out 2 of Kentucky, Louisville, and Kansas to get that regional site. I thought it was impossible a month ago. Now, at the least, I see a path that exists. It's booby trapped, but it's a path.

[shocktheheart]

WSU tied with KU for a 3 seed. Indiana State in one bracket as a 11 seed.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

[TheAsianSensation]

Here's the board's Christmas gift: A projection!

The 1 line: Arizona (13-0), Wisconsin (12-0), Ohio St (12-0), Syracuse (11-0)
The 2 line: Louisville (11-1), Michigan St (10-1), Villanova (11-0), Kansas (8-3)
The 3 line: Oklahoma St (11-1), Duke (9-2), Kentucky (9-3), Iowa St (11-0)
The 4 line: Wichita St (11-0), Connecticut (10-1), Massachusetts (10-1), Oregon (11-0)
The 5 line: Florida (9-2), Baylor (8-1), Iowa (11-2), Colorado (10-2)
The 6 line: Memphis (8-2), San Diego St (8-1), Creighton (9-2), Gonzaga (9-2)
The 7 line: UCLA (10-2), North Carolina (8-3), Georgetown (7-3), Missouri (10-1)
The 8 line: New Mexico (9-3), VCU (10-3), Florida St (8-3), Michigan (7-4)
The 9 line: Pittsburgh (11-1), LSU (8-2), St Louis (10-2), Oklahoma (11-1)
The 10 line: Illinois (10-2), Texas (10-2), Harvard (9-1), Butler (8-2)
The 11 line: Indiana (10-3), Stanford (8-3), Virginia (9-3), BYU (7-5)
The 12 line: Cincinnati (10-2), George Washington (10-1), Boise St (8-2), St Mary's (9-2), Toledo (10-0), Southern Miss (9-2)
The 13 line: North Dakota St (8-4), Belmont (7-5), Manhattan (9-2), Drexel (8-3)
The 14 line: Green Bay (6-3), New Mexico St (9-5), UC Santa Barbara (6-4), Mercer (6-4)
The 15 line: Louisiana-Lafayette (6-4), Bucknell (5-5), Stephen F Austin (8-2), North Carolina Central (5-3)
The 16 line: Elon (5-5), Bryant (6-6), Northern Colorado (4-3), Stony Brook (8-4), Radford (6-4), Jackson St (4-7)


Last 4 out:
Minnesota
SMU
Arizona St
Xavier

Next 4 out:
Charlotte
Dayton
Tennessee
Princeton


This time of year, I do a fair bit of projecting in addition to current results. Wichita is straddling the 3/4 line and will probably be there the whole year pending disaster. I think Wichita has a couple of free passes this year. There won't be much difference between 30-0 and 27-3 with this team.

If you're thinking Wichita can replicate last year's Gonzaga, probably not. Even if they build a better resume, the 1 seeds this year are stronger this year than compared to last year. More possible dominant teams.

What keeps Wichita as a 4 is my projection that Duke and Kentucky will be better than their current computer profile says, and Iowa St and the Big 12 in particular has taken a leap forward. Big 12 is stronger than I thought, and I think they can support Kansas, Okla St, AND Iowa St on the top 2 lines.

No other MVC teams on the board right now, although Indiana St and Missouri St are reasonably close. Based on the law of averages, I expect a 2nd team to emerge in conference play to the at-large board. But for now, I don't have enough to project Indiana St up there.

And in EVERYBODY PANIC news, rpiforecast now says the MAC has caught us for 11th. Wichita reserves the right to throw a fit about the conference, and we need a gentleman's agreement that says they're allowed to this year. This conference is letting them down, period.

[isumvc1]

Here's the board's Christmas gift: A projection!

The 1 line: Arizona (13-0), Wisconsin (12-0), Ohio St (12-0), Syracuse (11-0)
The 2 line: Louisville (11-1), Michigan St (10-1), Villanova (11-0), Kansas (8-3)
The 3 line: Oklahoma St (11-1), Duke (9-2), Kentucky (9-3), Iowa St (11-0)
The 4 line: Wichita St (11-0), Connecticut (10-1), Massachusetts (10-1), Oregon (11-0)
The 5 line: Florida (9-2), Baylor (8-1), Iowa (11-2), Colorado (10-2)
The 6 line: Memphis (8-2), San Diego St (8-1), Creighton (9-2), Gonzaga (9-2)
The 7 line: UCLA (10-2), North Carolina (8-3), Georgetown (7-3), Missouri (10-1)
The 8 line: New Mexico (9-3), VCU (10-3), Florida St (8-3), Michigan (7-4)
The 9 line: Pittsburgh (11-1), LSU (8-2), St Louis (10-2), Oklahoma (11-1)
The 10 line: Illinois (10-2), Texas (10-2), Harvard (9-1), Butler (8-2)
The 11 line: Indiana (10-3), Stanford (8-3), Virginia (9-3), BYU (7-5)
The 12 line: Cincinnati (10-2), George Washington (10-1), Boise St (8-2), St Mary's (9-2), Toledo (10-0), Southern Miss (9-2)
The 13 line: North Dakota St (8-4), Belmont (7-5), Manhattan (9-2), Drexel (8-3)
The 14 line: Green Bay (6-3), New Mexico St (9-5), UC Santa Barbara (6-4), Mercer (6-4)
The 15 line: Louisiana-Lafayette (6-4), Bucknell (5-5), Stephen F Austin (8-2), North Carolina Central (5-3)
The 16 line: Elon (5-5), Bryant (6-6), Northern Colorado (4-3), Stony Brook (8-4), Radford (6-4), Jackson St (4-7)


Last 4 out:
Minnesota
SMU
Arizona St
Xavier

Next 4 out:
Charlotte
Dayton
Tennessee
Princeton


This time of year, I do a fair bit of projecting in addition to current results. Wichita is straddling the 3/4 line and will probably be there the whole year pending disaster. I think Wichita has a couple of free passes this year. There won't be much difference between 30-0 and 27-3 with this team.

If you're thinking Wichita can replicate last year's Gonzaga, probably not. Even if they build a better resume, the 1 seeds this year are stronger this year than compared to last year. More possible dominant teams.

What keeps Wichita as a 4 is my projection that Duke and Kentucky will be better than their current computer profile says, and Iowa St and the Big 12 in particular has taken a leap forward. Big 12 is stronger than I thought, and I think they can support Kansas, Okla St, AND Iowa St on the top 2 lines.

No other MVC teams on the board right now, although Indiana St and Missouri St are reasonably close. Based on the law of averages, I expect a 2nd team to emerge in conference play to the at-large board. But for now, I don't have enough to project Indiana St up there.

And in EVERYBODY PANIC news, rpiforecast now says the MAC has caught us for 11th. Wichita reserves the right to throw a fit about the conference, and we need a gentleman's agreement that says they're allowed to this year. This conference is letting them down, period.

I agree 100%, the MVC has really taken a step back this year and WSU fans have every right to be PO'd, all we can hope for is that this year is an anomaly and that next season the MVC will bounce back to being a top 10 RPI conference. Of course losing CU and adding Loyola has hurt, but again, hopefully for just this season.

[iSASO]

For those desirous of WSU's demise, the shared sucktitude from team 2-10 just might be a huge factor in Marshall leaving WSU.

[AndShock]

This time of year, I do a fair bit of projecting in addition to current results. Wichita is straddling the 3/4 line and will probably be there the whole year pending disaster. I think Wichita has a couple of free passes this year. There won't be much difference between 30-0 and 27-3 with this team.

If you're thinking Wichita can replicate last year's Gonzaga, probably not. Even if they build a better resume, the 1 seeds this year are stronger this year than compared to last year. More possible dominant teams.

What keeps Wichita as a 4 is my projection that Duke and Kentucky will be better than their current computer profile says, and Iowa St and the Big 12 in particular has taken a leap forward. Big 12 is stronger than I thought, and I think they can support Kansas, Okla St, AND Iowa St on the top 2 lines.

I'm guessing all this means we have about a 1% chance at grabbing St. Louis now? On the positive side, coming from my very uninformed bracketology mind, San Antonio looks pretty open for us. That would certainly be a much better drive than we've been assigned in recent years.

[TheAsianSensation]

I'm guessing all this means we have about a 1% chance at grabbing St. Louis now? On the positive side, coming from my very uninformed bracketology mind, San Antonio looks pretty open for us. That would certainly be a much better drive than we've been assigned in recent years.

1% is about right. Oklahoma St, Louisville, Kansas, and Kentucky (not to mention Iowa St now) are all looking to St Louis. That's just too much to overcome with the MVC schedule.

What might be best is to root for a big season for the Big 12. Hope Kansas and OK State go to St Louis. Because if Louisville and Kentucky get those spots instead, KU and OSU go to San Antonio and Wichita gets sent careening to San Diego. But if Kansas and OK State go to St Louis, Kentucky and Louisville head east and Wichita makes it to San Antonio with probably any seed 5 or better.

[pafan]

And in EVERYBODY PANIC news, rpiforecast now says the MAC has caught us for 11th. Wichita reserves the right to throw a fit about the conference, and we need a gentleman's agreement that says they're allowed to this year. This conference is letting them down, period.

The #1 reason is the poor scheduling in the conference.

Here are the present SoS figures from bbstate.com:
1. UNI - #20
2. WSU - #74
3. D+ - #102
4. Evansville - #129
5. IlSU - #132
6. Bradley - #161
7. MSU - #233
8. SIU - #270
9. InSU - #290
10. Loyola - #310

Indiana State and MSU can't build a profile to help the conference by playing the #230 and #290 schedules in D1. And, because this is based on RPI, it doesn't even include the non-D1 games MSU and InSU have played.

Evansville can't help by going 1-3 against the RPI top 100 (and playing two non-D1 games, and two HBCUs, and IUPUI)