AT-LARGE ODD [Update - 1/3 of Conference]

[Snaggletooth]

I decided to do this because, you have certain fans who have this very emotional outlook that is "we have no chance" when in reality they are just letting their emotions guide them instead of the raw numbers. Non-Conference is about building your at-large resume, but just success in non-conference is the whole season. It is your whole body of work that matters and if you don't have a great non-conference season then you just need to have a better second half.

Of course we know one of the problems with the MVC is it never seems we get 3-4 teams that separate themselves from bottom dwellers. MVC loves to eat their own. Therefore with not one of the greatest non-conference season for this conference to get multiple bids, it will require 2-3 teams to separate themselves from everybody else.

Here is where everybody status:

Note: all data taken from http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/MVC.html. Records are only for Div I opponents.


MVC is Ranked 11th and is expected to be #11 for the season.

Wichita State
STATUS: GREEN
Current RPI: 12
Expected RPI: 16

Non-Conference Record: 12-0
Projected Conference Record: 15-3
Projected Final Record: 27-3

Record Need to be On Bubble: See Remarks
Probability: See Remarks

Best Wins: SLU (31.6), BYU (42.7)
Top 100 Wins: SLU (31.6), BYU (42.7) - but is struggling, Tenn (64.7), Alabama (90.4),

Remarks: WSU is in a unique situation, they had a perfect Non-Conference which means they would have to have a total meltdown for their RPI not to be on the bubble, but if they have that bad a meltdown I don't think they get in. They have to win the MVC. So 3-4 loss at most, maybe 5 (5 gives them Projected RPI of 27). WSU does need SLU, Tenn, Alabama to finish strong. BYU doesn't look like they will.

Indiana State
STATUS: ORANGE
Current RPI: 95
Expected RPI: 78

Non-Conference Record: 7-3
Projected Conference Record: 12-6
Projected Final Record: 19-9

Record Need to be On Bubble: 23-5 to 22-6
Bubble Margin (losses): 2-3
Probability: 6.1%

Best Wins: Belmont (80.9)
Top 100 Wins: Belmont (80.9), ND (83.1)

Remarks: ISUB has some work to do. The ND win has lost some of it luster ISUB has to go at the very worst 15-3 in conference play. Notre Dame win has lost some of it luster and ISUB fans need to hope that they can turn their season around in their conference. Also watch, Pepperdine. They beat BYU, so maybe they will have a better 2nd half. ISUB has to beat WSU at least once and needs a couple other teams in conference to separate themselves from the pack (DU, MOST, UNI).

DRAKE
STATUS: ORANGE
Current RPI: 71
Expected RPI: 79

Non-Conference Record: 8-3
Projected Conference Record: 11-7
Projected Final Record: 19-10

Record Need to be On Bubble: 23-6 to 22-7
Bubble Margin (losses): 3-4
Probability: 6.5%

Best Wins: Nebraska-Omaha (107)
Top 100 Wins: None

Remarks: Drake is example of where they have played the RPI well. They have scheduled some difficult opponents (St. Mary's, Iowa, New Mexico St.) to give their schedule strength and then filled it out the remaining with cup-cakes. They beat all their cupcakes, but didn't win any quality games. Had they won 1 or 2 more games they would be setting a lot better. So they now have to earn their resume in conference play.

Missouri State
STATUS: ORANGE
Current RPI: 72
Expected RPI: 88

Non-Conference Record: 9-2
Projected Conference Record: 10-8
Projected Final Record: 19-10

Record Need to be On Bubble: 23-6 or 22-7
Bubble Margin (losses): 4-5
Probability: 7.4%

Best Wins: ORU (104)
Top 100 Wins: None

Remarks: Missouri State doesn't really have that good non-conference win they can point to. They had two opportunities against quality competition and didn't really compete well. They need to hope that Tulsa (182), Texas A&M (135), ORU (104) can turn it up a notch. So all their work has to be done in conference play. If they can finish in a strong 2nd place they might have a shot at a at-large.

Northern Iowa
STATUS: ORANGE
Current RPI: 89
Expected RPI: 92

Non-Conference Record: 5-6
Projected Conference Record: 11-7
Projected Final Record: 16-13

Record Need to be On Bubble: 20-9/19-10
Bubble Margin (losses): 3-4
Probability: 4.9%

Best Wins: VCU (25)
Top 100 Wins: VCU (25)

Remarks: Northern Iowa had a very good non-conference schedule that even though they didn't have great success, still leaves them with a shot. UNI has the best non-conference win of the year over VCU and if they can finish at least 2nd might also have a shot of at-large.

Illinois State
STATUS: RED
Current RPI: 147
Expected RPI: 161

Non-Conference Record: 6-5
Projected Conference Record: 8-10
Projected Final Record: 14-15

Record Need to be On Bubble: 21-7
Bubble Margin (losses): 2
Probability: 0%

Best Wins: Dayton (59)
Top 100 Wins: Dayton (59)

Remarks: For ISUR team they actually had a decent schedule with VCU, Dayton, Drexel, Manhattan, SF, Depaul - problem is they didn't win all that many. It hard to see ISUR winning the conference, but that what it would take.

Evansville
STATUS: BLACK
Current RPI: 199
Expected RPI: 171

Non-Conference Record: 5-6
Projected Conference Record: 8-10
Projected Final Record: 13-16

Record Need to be On Bubble: 22-7
Bubble Margin (losses): 1
Probability: 0%

Best Wins: Mercer (83)
Top 100 Wins: Mercer (83)

Remarks:Played some good teams (Indiana, Ohio, Xavier, Butler) but couldn't break through. Their only hope is to try and finish in the top 6 and hope to catch fire in STL.

SIU
STATUS: BLACK
Current RPI: 325
Expected RPI: 257

Non-Conference Record: 3-9
Projected Conference Record: 7-11
Projected Final Record: 10-20

Record Need to be On Bubble: -NA-
Bubble Margin (losses): 0
Probability: 0%

Best Wins: Ball State (255)
Top 100 Wins: None

Remarks: Not much to say except it looks like they play down to their opponent. Their season can be defined by 11 points in 4 games and their fans might have a different perspective on the season. Unfortunately for the valley, they will probably sneak up on a couple teams.

Bradley
STATUS: BLACK
Current RPI: 250
Expected RPI: 268

Non-Conference Record: 5-8
Projected Conference Record: 5-13
Projected Final Record: 10-21

Record Need to be On Bubble: -NA-
Bubble Margin (losses): 0
Probability: 0%

Best Wins: Central Michigan (273)
Top 100 Wins: None

Remarks: Really not much to say, just very disappointing non-conference schedule and results.

Loyolla
STATUS: BLACK
Current RPI: 317
Expected RPI: 291

Non-Conference Record: 4-7
Projected Conference Record: 4-14
Projected Final Record: 8-21

Record Need to be On Bubble: -NA-
Bubble Margin (losses): 0
Probability: 0%

Best Wins: Milwaukee (169)
Top 100 Wins: None

Remarks: Welcome to the Valley of Death. Well got off to a good start with win against Milwaukee. But then lost to 270, 274, 279, 325, 196, 223.

BTW, you will get a pass on your schedule this year, but no more. You could have went undefeated and nobody would take Loyolla serious.

[GoAcesgo]

Agree that a team could get hot and run the table in the St. Louis, I feel if WSU wins regular season and conf. tourney all other teams no matter who it is, maybe ISU or NIU as an exception will have a hard time getting in because of no quality preseason wins.

[Wufan]

Good thread! Two of UNI, Indiana State, Mo State, and Drake need to separate themselves from the other two, meanwhile, all four need to separate from the bottom half of the Valley. With strong records (14-4 or better) along with beating a WSU team that DOESN'T falter greatly (14-4 or better), then we have 3 teams that COULD end up in the at-large conversation. What's important is to keep all 5 teams in the top 100 RPI so that those that separate have as many top 100 RPI wins as possible.

It looks unlikely right now, but if multiple teams are deserving, then those teams will demonstrate it in league play.

[rlh04d]

Good post.

I don't think there's more than about a 5% chance of a non-WSU team getting an at-large bid. It's going to take a clear distinction between the top and bottom of the conference all year to maintain the five top 100 RPI teams we have now, and probably a distinct #2 team that will beat WSU at least once and get a number of top 100 wins from the other top teams.

Basically I think there's as much of a chance of WSU going undefeated in the regular season right now as there is of Indiana State/UNI/Drake/MoSt putting together an at-large resume. Not impossible, but very unlikely.

The best hope for the Valley will be Wichita State's long-standing tradition of blowing Arch Madness to get multiple bids.

[GoAcesgo]

Good post.

I don't think there's more than about a 5% chance of a non-WSU team getting an at-large bid. It's going to take a clear distinction between the top and bottom of the conference all year to maintain the five top 100 RPI teams we have now, and probably a distinct #2 team that will beat WSU at least once and get a number of top 100 wins from the other top teams.

Basically I think there's as much of a chance of WSU going undefeated in the regular season right now as there is of Indiana State/UNI/Drake/MoSt putting together an at-large resume. Not impossible, but very unlikely.

The best hope for the Valley will be Wichita State's long-standing tradition of blowing Arch Madness to get multiple bids.

Agree with this...if Drake and Mo ST are in at large talks that means they have run the table and this would be bad news for WSU.

[Wufan]

I don't think there's more than about a 5% chance of a non-WSU team getting an at-large bid.

Pretty much. If you note the % listed by Snaggletooth, the projected percentage of the teams winning at that rate is roughly 5%. Per RPIForecast, here's todays percentage that they finish on the bubble or better:

ISUb: 7.3%
Drake: 6.4%
MSU: 5.6%
UNI: 5.2%

In addition to those numbers, the team would probably have to play on Sunday in St. Louis.

Basically I think there's as much of a chance of WSU going undefeated in the regular season right now as there is of Indiana State/UNI/Drake/MoSt putting together an at-large resume. Not impossible, but very unlikely.

Chances for WSU going undefeated: 5.0%

The numbers back what you are saying.

[Wufan]

Agree with this...if Drake and Mo ST are in at large talks that means they have run the table and this would be bad news for WSU.

Nope. It means they will have won 13+ games. I win over WSU would be helpful to that team, and not awful to WSU, but an undefeated WSU and a second team getting an at-large aren't mutually exclusive. Both are, however, unlikely.

[rlh04d]

I don't think there's more than about a 5% chance of a non-WSU team getting an at-large bid.

Pretty much. If you note the % listed by Snaggletooth, the projected percentage of the teams winning at that rate is roughly 5%. Per RPIForecast, here's todays percentage that they finish on the bubble or better:

ISUb: 7.3%
Drake: 6.4%
MSU: 5.6%
UNI: 5.2%

And those numbers are all opposed to each other as well. If ISUb is making a run at an at-large bid, it's almost certain that the other three aren't, because those numbers are going to be heavily based on those teams beating each other.

[Snaggletooth]

I don't think there's more than about a 5% chance of a non-WSU team getting an at-large bid.

Pretty much. If you note the % listed by Snaggletooth, the projected percentage of the teams winning at that rate is roughly 5%. Per RPIForecast, here's todays percentage that they finish on the bubble or better:

ISUb: 7.3%
Drake: 6.4%
MSU: 5.6%
UNI: 5.2%

And those numbers are all opposed to each other as well. If ISUb is making a run at an at-large bid, it's almost certain that the other three aren't, because those numbers are going to be heavily based on those teams beating each other.

I think there is only 1 other team that will have a chance to make that run as at-large - who it is, your guess is as good as mine and it will probably take a perfect storm of events to occur.

Most likely outcome is another Valley of Death chewing everybody up. But teams have a clock and they have a chance until they hit these numbers of ~losses in league play. Some will be eliminated in the first week.

ISUB - 3 loss margin
Drake - 4 loss margin
MSU - 5 loss margin
UNI - 4 loss margin
ISUR - 2 loss margin
UE - 1 loss margin
SIU - 0 loss margin
Bradley - 0 loss margin
Loyolla - 0 loss margin

[Wufan]

BTW, I'm not sure UNI gets a bid with less than 21 wins.