(but first, Basketball Jesus has to come down from Notre Dame and perform some miracles)
According to Ken Pomeroy's blog, SIU has a 0.02% chance of winning the league, Evansville 0.08%, and several teams with odds greater than 0.1%.
I'll leave you in suspense on who he thinks is most likely win the league.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog ... ons_part_i