TheAsianSensation wrote:
I actually think WSU is in good shape against Florida because the SEC as a whole is in trouble. And I think 'Zone could legit run the table, but we'll set that aside for now.
I think your general mistake is you're doing the math from the perspective of the losses. That's part of the battle, but the other part is the quality wins. A Michigan St with 3 or 4 losses would mean they would have a treasure chest of quality wins. Same with Wisky.
If I had to guess who the 1 line will be, I'd put my money on a 31-2 Arizona, 29-4 Michigan St, 27-6 Kansas and....31-2 Wichita still. But they'll have to hold off Syracuse, any Big 12 team that emerges as a clear #2, any B1G team that emerges as a clear #2, or an outside run from Kentucky or Louisville which causes everyone to lose their sanity briefly.
Anyway, back to adult conversations ...
I think we can safely ignore Wisconsin for the one line for a while. They certainly don't look like one now.
Obviously the losses are only part of it, but I think the biggest impact on WSU will be their losses. They're going to have far more quality wins than us ... That's just insurmountable for WSU. We need to rely on a larger gap in losses. An undefeated season just doesn't happen, and I still think all hope for a one seed relies on it.
As for Arizona, they can certainly go undefeated, but I think it's important to note their schedule is backloaded with away games. They've only played four road games, winning three by single digits and two by four points or less. Meanwhile they have another seven road games in their last 12. Ucla is out of the way, and they miss Washington on the road, but they still have every other team in the top 10 of the conference to play. They have a long way to go against good competition still.