Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

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Re: Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

Postby BradleyBrave » January 31st, 2014, 2:03 pm

Shockerfan13 wrote:Elgin was on a local radio show in Wichita a week or so ago and mentioned that they have or are implementing a program to penalize schools with weak non conference schedules. I believe I have heard him before say he was looking at bringing back the previous rule as well.


Bringing back the previous rule would be great.
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Re: Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

Postby UNIFanSince1983 » January 31st, 2014, 2:40 pm

There should definitely at least be a rule that you cannot schedule any SWAC teams. Maybe even MEAC teams. Looking at you Bradley, Evansville, Missouri State, and Wichita State.

That would at least be a start...
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Re: Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

Postby shocktheheart » January 31st, 2014, 2:54 pm

UNIFanSince1983 wrote:There should definitely at least be a rule that you cannot schedule any SWAC teams. Maybe even MEAC teams. Looking at you Bradley, Evansville, Missouri State, and Wichita State.

That would at least be a start...


What MEAC team is bringing down WSU's RPI? Oh you mean NCCU whose RPI is 126 and UNI is 109...big difference! Maybe if the other Valley schools didn't suck so bad as there are 5 teams lower than NCCU. UNI played Savannah St which is in the MEAC and has a RPI of 307. Maybe you should look at your team?
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Re: Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

Postby Cdizzle » January 31st, 2014, 2:57 pm

UNIFanSince1983 wrote:There should definitely at least be a rule that you cannot schedule any SWAC teams. Maybe even MEAC teams. Looking at you Bradley, Evansville, Missouri State, and Wichita State.

That would at least be a start...


This is a really clueless way to look at scheduling. I assume your reference to WSU is in regard to MEAC opponent North Carolina Central? 12-5 NCCU whose predicted RPI (106) is 13 below UNI's and good enough for 5th in the Valley? After playing the Valley schedule this year, NCCU may actually be one of WSU's best wins.

It is more important to choose correctly on the teams you're adding to your schedule for the year. Choosing a team that is likely to finish in the top 1-2 in the SWAC/MEAC/other leagues will generally lead to a good schedule. Those teams will pick up a lot of wins in their conference and buoy their RPI.

Unfortunately that is easier said than done.

1. You have to pay attention and know which teams have a good year coming up in their respective league.
2. You have to get your dates to match up.
3. You have to have enough $$$ to outbid the other schools that have figured this out.
4. You have to beat the team.
5. You have to end up being right and watch the team be successful in their league.

Having one or two RPI-stinkers on the schedule isn't really the problem anyway. That happens. Having 4-6 of them is a problem, one created by some combination of terrible scheduling and terrible luck.
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Re: Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

Postby BradleyBrave » January 31st, 2014, 8:53 pm

UNIFanSince1983 wrote:There should definitely at least be a rule that you cannot schedule any SWAC teams. Maybe even MEAC teams. Looking at you Bradley, Evansville, Missouri State, and Wichita State.

That would at least be a start...


We have had our reasons for the light schedule, but agree 100% that it can't continue for our sake or the league's. Ours was a little better this and I expect it to be much better next year.
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Re: Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

Postby rlh04d » January 31st, 2014, 9:09 pm

UNIFanSince1983 wrote:There should definitely at least be a rule that you cannot schedule any SWAC teams. Maybe even MEAC teams. Looking at you Bradley, Evansville, Missouri State, and Wichita State.

That would at least be a start...

Yeah, WSU's nonconference schedule is the problem with the MVC.
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Re: Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

Postby AndShock » February 1st, 2014, 12:20 pm

UNIFanSince1983 wrote:There should definitely at least be a rule that you cannot schedule any SWAC teams. Maybe even MEAC teams. Looking at you Bradley, Evansville, Missouri State, and Wichita State.

That would at least be a start...


You can schedule those conferences you just have to smart about. Like it's been mentioned, NCCU has been a great buy game. Southern would've been a great buy game this year. Texas Southern was a solid buy game when Wichita State played them. I would replace SIU and Loyola with Southern this year in a heartbeat.
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Re: Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

Postby TheAsianSensation » February 1st, 2014, 1:22 pm

Never ever ever ever a SWAC school. Ever. No exceptions. Period. Ever. Well, if you have to play one in a MTT, fine, but you better get value elsewhere in that MTT. Even if you know that SWAC team will run the table in that conference, you don't take them. The significant hit to your opponent SoS component of the RPI is too massive.

The MEAC is a little different. You can find some hidden value, especially because some teams can dominate that conference and rack up a good W-L for your SoS.
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Re: Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

Postby AndShock » February 1st, 2014, 1:28 pm

TheAsianSensation wrote:Never ever ever ever a SWAC school. Ever. No exceptions. Period. Ever. Well, if you have to play one in a MTT, fine, but you better get value elsewhere in that MTT. Even if you know that SWAC team will run the table in that conference, you don't take them. The significant hit to your opponent SoS component of the RPI is too massive.

The MEAC is a little different. You can find some hidden value, especially because some teams can dominate that conference and rack up a good W-L for your SoS.


Southern is projected to lose 3 games in conference and still have an RPI in the Top 200. I would argue they've underperformed this year too. I would take them over a D2+ any day.
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Re: Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

Postby TheAsianSensation » February 1st, 2014, 1:38 pm

AndShock wrote:
TheAsianSensation wrote:Never ever ever ever a SWAC school. Ever. No exceptions. Period. Ever. Well, if you have to play one in a MTT, fine, but you better get value elsewhere in that MTT. Even if you know that SWAC team will run the table in that conference, you don't take them. The significant hit to your opponent SoS component of the RPI is too massive.

The MEAC is a little different. You can find some hidden value, especially because some teams can dominate that conference and rack up a good W-L for your SoS.


Southern is projected to lose 3 games in conference and still have an RPI in the Top 200. I would argue they've underperformed this year too. I would take them over a D2+ any day.

And they weren't even preseason favorites, so if you put them on the schedule this year, you thought you were taking a hit.

This has actually been a historically good year for the SWAC. I don't expect them to maintain their value like this in future years.
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