Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

[AndShock]

Never ever ever ever a SWAC school. Ever. No exceptions. Period. Ever. Well, if you have to play one in a MTT, fine, but you better get value elsewhere in that MTT. Even if you know that SWAC team will run the table in that conference, you don't take them. The significant hit to your opponent SoS component of the RPI is too massive.

The MEAC is a little different. You can find some hidden value, especially because some teams can dominate that conference and rack up a good W-L for your SoS.

Southern is projected to lose 3 games in conference and still have an RPI in the Top 200. I would argue they've underperformed this year too. I would take them over a D2+ any day.

And they weren't even preseason favorites, so if you put them on the schedule this year, you thought you were taking a hit.

This has actually been a historically good year for the SWAC. I don't expect them to maintain their value like this in future years.

I just don't think banning conferences is a better alternative than banning teams. Texas Southern is probably +250 this year but it's the first time that's happened in the past 4-5 years. It's still not a 300+ drag even in their down year. They've been Top 200 2 of the last 3 years.

IUPUI is the biggest RPI drag on WSU of teams that didn't appear on WSU's schedule because Valley teams were in love with scheduling them. Their RPI is only higher than 2 SWAC schools and they were 300+ last year. Ban IUPUI and SIU-E from schedules, not Texas Southern and Southern.

[TheAsianSensation]

I just don't think banning conferences is a better alternative than banning teams. Texas Southern is probably +250 this year but it's the first time that's happened in the past 4-5 years. It's still not a 300+ drag even in their down year. They've been Top 200 2 of the last 3 years.

IUPUI is the biggest RPI drag on WSU of teams that didn't appear on WSU's schedule because Valley teams were in love with scheduling them. Their RPI is only higher than 2 SWAC schools and they were 300+ last year. Ban IUPUI and SIU-E from schedules, not Texas Southern and Southern.

Oh, make no mistake, I'd institute the old Top 150 rule long before I'd even suggest banning conferences from non-con play.

But the conference avoidance is still a decent strategy. The problem is year-to-year variance for individual teams. You can want to avoid particular teams you think will be a drag, but there's always the chance they're better, or the team you thought was good goes in the tank. Bradley went into this year's schedule thinking of the Milwaukee-IUPUI-IPFW stretch as a stretch where IUPUI was the best opponent. That got flipped on its head. IUPUI was actually pretty good until they lost their coach to Georgia St. Now, a bunch of MVC teams put them on the schedule immediately after the change. Boom, a good game turns bad.

That's why it's a better idea to target whole conferences who consistently perform badly. Trying to identify individual teams to avoid will inevitably backfire.

[Cdizzle]

I just don't think banning conferences is a better alternative than banning teams. Texas Southern is probably +250 this year but it's the first time that's happened in the past 4-5 years. It's still not a 300+ drag even in their down year. They've been Top 200 2 of the last 3 years.

IUPUI is the biggest RPI drag on WSU of teams that didn't appear on WSU's schedule because Valley teams were in love with scheduling them. Their RPI is only higher than 2 SWAC schools and they were 300+ last year. Ban IUPUI and SIU-E from schedules, not Texas Southern and Southern.

Oh, make no mistake, I'd institute the old Top 150 rule long before I'd even suggest banning conferences from non-con play.

But the conference avoidance is still a decent strategy. The problem is year-to-year variance for individual teams. You can want to avoid particular teams you think will be a drag, but there's always the chance they're better, or the team you thought was good goes in the tank. Bradley went into this year's schedule thinking of the Milwaukee-IUPUI-IPFW stretch as a stretch where IUPUI was the best opponent. That got flipped on its head. IUPUI was actually pretty good until they lost their coach to Georgia St. Now, a bunch of MVC teams put them on the schedule immediately after the change. Boom, a good game turns bad.

That's why it's a better idea to target whole conferences who consistently perform badly. Trying to identify individual teams to avoid will inevitably backfire.

Or one could use a brain and realize that maybe a team will take a step back when they change coaches....

[AndShock]

I just don't think banning conferences is a better alternative than banning teams. Texas Southern is probably +250 this year but it's the first time that's happened in the past 4-5 years. It's still not a 300+ drag even in their down year. They've been Top 200 2 of the last 3 years.

IUPUI is the biggest RPI drag on WSU of teams that didn't appear on WSU's schedule because Valley teams were in love with scheduling them. Their RPI is only higher than 2 SWAC schools and they were 300+ last year. Ban IUPUI and SIU-E from schedules, not Texas Southern and Southern.

Oh, make no mistake, I'd institute the old Top 150 rule long before I'd even suggest banning conferences from non-con play.

But the conference avoidance is still a decent strategy. The problem is year-to-year variance for individual teams. You can want to avoid particular teams you think will be a drag, but there's always the chance they're better, or the team you thought was good goes in the tank. Bradley went into this year's schedule thinking of the Milwaukee-IUPUI-IPFW stretch as a stretch where IUPUI was the best opponent. That got flipped on its head. IUPUI was actually pretty good until they lost their coach to Georgia St. Now, a bunch of MVC teams put them on the schedule immediately after the change. Boom, a good game turns bad.

That's why it's a better idea to target whole conferences who consistently perform badly. Trying to identify individual teams to avoid will inevitably backfire.

I understand what you're saying now. I guess we were just arguing semantics.

[MVCfans]

No major changes after 11 games. Looking forward to the first graphical representation of the probabilities chart which we'll post next week.

link: The MVC Report - February 7 Arch Madness Projections

[pafan]

That's why it's a better idea to target whole conferences who consistently perform badly. Trying to identify individual teams to avoid will inevitably backfire.

Let's say the five worst conferences were banned for the following season (America East, Big South, Southern, SWAC, MEAC). Here's how many games MVC teams would not be able to redo next year:
WSU - 2 (one of these was a BB return game against Davidson)
ISUB - 0
MSU - 4
ISUR - 1
SIU - 0
BRAD - 1
UNI - 1
LUC - 1
DU - 1
UE - 2

Not actually as many as I thought.
These five conferences have a total of 3 RPI 150 or better teams as of today, so not a lot of potential SOS to be lost with this proposal.
And I'd never have to see UE lose to Jackson State again at the Ford Center.

[AndShock]

Davidson will be in the A10 next year so that brings WSU to 1 (and the other is one of those 3 teams you mentioned.)

[agrinut]

That's why it's a better idea to target whole conferences who consistently perform badly. Trying to identify individual teams to avoid will inevitably backfire.

Let's say the five worst conferences were banned for the following season (America East, Big South, Southern, SWAC, MEAC). Here's how many games MVC teams would not be able to redo next year:
WSU - 2 (one of these was a BB return game against Davidson)
ISUB - 0
MSU - 4
ISUR - 1
SIU - 0
BRAD - 1
UNI - 1
LUC - 1
DU - 1
UE - 2

Not actually as many as I thought.
These five conferences have a total of 3 RPI 150 or better teams as of today, so not a lot of potential SOS to be lost with this proposal.
And I'd never have to see UE lose to Jackson State again at the Ford Center.

What do you do with the games that are part of a MTE? 2 of MSU's 4 games were MTE 1 is ORU who is traditionally pretty strong and the other every Bear fan would love to see removed Alabama A&M.

[Wufan]

WSU played Davidson, currently in first place in the Southern, and NCC, currently in first place in the MEAC. Both are top 150 RPIs. I think it's important to play teams from weaker conferences, but certainly in moderation. There are currently 4 teams in the MVC that have an RPI over 200. The only non-con game that WSU played against a team over 200 RPI was Tennessee State. This was scheduled as part of the exempt tourney.

We also scheduled home-and-homes against Oral Roberts from the Southland, St. Louis from the A-10, Tulsa from CUSA, and Tennessee and Alabama from the SEC. I'm not sure if Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) was a buy game or H&H.

BYU, DePaul, and William and Mary were part of the CBE in KC. Davidson was a return from the BB, so we won't see them again.

I guess what I'm saying is that Indiana State, Evansville, UNI, and Drake almost always have one BCS game from their in state foes. Every team in the MVC should be able to create a top 150 SOS if they just try a little bit, and you don't have to leave out the weak conferences all together.

[shocktheheart]

WSU played Davidson, currently in first place in the Southern, and NCC, currently in first place in the MEAC. Both are top 150 RPIs. I think it's important to play teams from weaker conferences, but certainly in moderation. There are currently 4 teams in the MVC that have an RPI over 200. The only non-con game that WSU played against a team over 200 RPI was Tennessee State. This was scheduled as part of the exempt tourney.

We also scheduled home-and-homes against Oral Roberts from the Southland, St. Louis from the A-10, Tulsa from CUSA, and Tennessee and Alabama from the SEC. I'm not sure if Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) was a buy game or H&H.

BYU, DePaul, and William and Mary were part of the CBE in KC. Davidson was a return from the BB, so we won't see them again.

I guess what I'm saying is that Indiana State, Evansville, UNI, and Drake almost always have one BCS game from their in state foes. Every team in the MVC should be able to create a top 150 SOS if they just try a little bit, and you don't have to leave out the weak conferences all together.

I don't think Oral Roberts is a home and home. Western Kentucky was a buy game