MVCfans.com Arch Madness seeding probabilities

[MVCfans]

Back by popular demand (with a huge thank you to Hacksaw), we are happy to present the initial 2014 Arch Madness seeding probabilities.

link: The MVC Report - February 15 Arch Madness seeding probabilities

[ptownbraves]

Illinois St. only has a 4% chance of playing Thursday? I know they have 7 wins, but that seems low. Not disagreeing with the calculation but I am surprised to see that.

[uniftw]

Wow I know SIU is only 6-8 but the 43% probability of playing Thursday seems high. Meanwhile Illinois St. only has a 7% chance of playing Thursday? I know they have 7 wins, but that seems low. Not disagreeing with the calculation but I am surprised to see that.

It's all about tie-breakers and who is left on the schedule.

For SIU I see a 2-2 or 1-3 finish putting them, at best 8-10. It's possible to go 3-1 with the way the league has been this year but I don't see them winning in Cedar Falls and I think they split ISUr and Bradley and beat Evansville - though it's at UE.

ISUr has a likely loss vs ISUb, a likely loss at UNI, a toss up vs MSU (I'll give them an edge due to being at home), and then the SIU game. I see 2-2 out of that and a 9-9 finish.

Even if the tie with SIU, I think ISU has the tie breaker (assuming the series is split).

[rlh04d]

I wouldn't want to play SIU right now, anywhere.

[FearDaTrees]

I wouldn't want to play SIU right now, anywhere.

I was just thinking the same thing. I'm hoping to see them get the #5 seed so they are on your side of the bracket.

[uniftw]

I wouldn't want to play SIU right now, anywhere.

Agreed...but UNI I'd a completely different breast at home then the road which is why I have them losing at UNI

At home UNI average score is 81-67, that's with a game we only scored 55

Road is 66-69

I don't think there is another team in the nation that has a 15 point drop between home and away

[BCPanther]

I want to know what the one scenario is where Loyola could finish 3rd. That had to be just absolutely insane.

[rlh04d]

I wouldn't want to play SIU right now, anywhere.

Agreed...but UNI I'd a completely different breast at home then the road which is why I have them losing at UNI

At home UNI average score is 81-67, that's with a game we only scored 55

Road is 66-69

I don't think there is another team in the nation that has a 15 point drop between home and away

UNI's definitely a lot tougher at home. But also have to remember that SIU is the only team other than WSU to beat ISUb, nearly beat ISUb again on the road, gave WSU a good fight on the road, and are on a hell of a six game run. And on that six game run, Beane's shooting 55%, 47% from 3, 23 ppg, etc., etc.

I'd just be hoping Beane cools off before coming into UNI.

[Hacksaw]

I want to know what the one scenario is where Loyola could finish 3rd. That had to be just absolutely insane.

There are actually 20 scenarios (0.0019%) allowing Loyola to pull off the 3-seed. When the games are weighted though, that probability falls to 0.00012% (approximately 1 in 1,048,576).

For this to occur, these must happen:
1) Loyola must go 4-0
2) ISU-Red must go 1-3, with the one win being at UNI
3) MSU must go 1-3, with the one win being at ISU-Red
4) UNI must go 1-3, with the one win being vs SIU
5) SIU must go 1-3, with the one win being vs ISU-Red
6) Drake must lose at least one of: at WSU, at UE, or vs BU
7) Bradley must lose at least one of: vs WSU or at Drake

All of this will result in a 4-way tie for 3rd place at 8-8 (Loyola, ISU-Red, MSU, & UNI) with Loyola having 4 round robin wins, UNI & ISU-Red both having 3, and SIU having 2. (Seeds 3-LUC, 4-ISU-Red, 5-UNI, 6-MSU)

If steps 1-7 happen and Bradley also finishes 8-8, there will then be a 5-way tie for 3rd with Loyola having 5 round robin wins, ISU-Red/MSU/UNI will all have 4, and Bradley 3. (Seeds 3-LUC, 4-UNI, 5-ISU-Red, 6-MSU, 7-Bradley)

[BCPanther]

You are the best Hacksaw!