2013-2014 Bracketology thread

[rlh04d]

Bolding the teams that have lost since your last update:

Update: If Wichita wins out, who can still finish ahead of them on the S-Curve?

Definitely: Florida, Arizona, Syracuse, Kansas, Duke, Wisconsin

Maybe: Michigan St, Michigan, Iowa St, Creighton, Villanova

Probably not, but not impossible: Cincinnati, San Diego St, Virginia, St Louis (x2) (yes, even with the H2H loss)

I SWEAR TO GOD, MEDIA, IF YOU HYPE THIS TEAM AND WANT THEM TO BE A 1 SEED IF THEY WIN OUT, I WILL PERSONALLY DRIVE TO EACH AND EVERY ONE OF YOUR HOUSES AND PUNCH YOU IN THE FACE: Louisville, North Carolina

San Diego State playing now. Arizona, Villanova, Wisconsin to play tomorrow.

My guess for the one seeds: Florida, WSU, Arizona, Duke.

[TheAsianSensation]

Update: If Wichita wins out, who can still finish ahead of them on the S-Curve?

Definitely: Florida, Arizona, Kansas, Wisconsin

Maybe: Syracuse, Duke, Michigan, Iowa St, Villanova

Probably not, but not impossible: Michigan St, San Diego St, Virginia, Creighton

The list is dwindling. There is now only one scenario where I would say Wichita would definitely lose the 1 line. Syracuse has given away too much, and I just don't feel it with Duke anymore.

For now:
The 1 line: Florida, Arizona, Wichita St, Kansas
The 2 line: Syracuse, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin
The 3 line: Michigan, San Diego St, Creighton, Virginia
The 4 line: Iowa St, North Carolina, Michigan St....Cincy/Louisville/OSU. Pick one, I don't care

[TheAsianSensation]

Bolding the teams that have lost since your last update:

San Diego State playing now. Arizona, Villanova, Wisconsin to play tomorrow.

My guess for the one seeds: Florida, WSU, Arizona, Duke.

You son of a ***** I'm typing the update as you post this

[rlh04d]

Bolding the teams that have lost since your last update:

San Diego State playing now. Arizona, Villanova, Wisconsin to play tomorrow.

My guess for the one seeds: Florida, WSU, Arizona, Duke.

You son of a ***** I'm typing the update as you post this

Too slow, Gargoyle.

I actually just looked at a comparison between Duke and Kansas again and Kansas is definitely over Duke for a one seed, even after that loss to OSU.

WSU is now in the top 5 on KenPom. One more argument gone from the trolls. 13th in offensive efficiency, 9th in defensive efficiency. Those are incredible numbers. Our statistical comparison to Florida is essentially identical:

4 Florida SEC 27-2 .9353 116.8 11 92.6 10
5 Wichita St. MVC 31-0 .9337 116.3 13 92.4 9

If I'm looking at a bracket for the Final Four right now, independent of my fandom for Wichita State or logically as to where they're in regional brackets, I'm penciling in Kansas, Virginia, Florida, and Wichita State. All four in the top 8 by KenPom, top 12 by LMRC, without significant weaknesses (Duke/Creighton immediately eliminated for poor defense), healthy (Arizona eliminated for lack of Brandon Ashley). Louisville would be my darkhorse.

As a WSU fan, I don't want those four teams in our bracket. I don't see any reason Kansas or Florida would be, so ... c'mon no Louisville/Virginia.

[Wufan]

I'm not seeing a 27-7 KU team (their record if they win out) as a #1 seen and a 34-0 WSU team as a #2 seed. I can see both on the 1 line, but not KU over WSU. Same with Wisconsin. 29-5 could be a #1, but not in place of WSU. I no longer see a scenario where WSU wins out and is NOT on the 1 line.

[TheAsianSensation]

I'm banking on the fact that I think the committee has a fetish for strength of schedule.

And a 27-7 Kansas might not just be a 1, but the overall 1. Ahead of 34-0 Wichita. Ahead of 32-2 Florida. Ahead of 32-2 Arizona. Ahead of everything. I will say their margin of error is now 0, since the next loss would mean either a) they lost to a non-tourney team, or b) they failed to win the Big 12 championship double.

Wisconsin has signature road wins up and down their schedule, have a clearly identifiable stretch that they've recovered from, and the #2 SoS in the country. The tricky part is having Michigan, not them, win the B1G title, but Wisky has a monster profile outside of that.

[Wufan]

I'm banking on the fact that I think the committee has a fetish for strength of schedule.

And a 27-7 Kansas might not just be a 1, but the overall 1. Ahead of 34-0 Wichita. Ahead of 32-2 Florida. Ahead of 32-2 Arizona. Ahead of everything. I will say their margin of error is now 0, since the next loss would mean either a) they lost to a non-tourney team, or b) they failed to win the Big 12 championship double.

Wisconsin has signature road wins up and down their schedule, have a clearly identifiable stretch that they've recovered from, and the #2 SoS in the country. The tricky part is having Michigan, not them, win the B1G title, but Wisky has a monster profile outside of that.

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Kansas will all be rewarded with 2 seeds along with Syracuse.

Duke, will somehow slip in to a #1, past Syracuse and Kansas. Arizona, Florida, and WSU will join them.

[TheAsianSensation]

I know everyone's paranoid about Duke but last year Gonzaga took a 1 seed from them in part because Duke lost ACC championships to Miami. Same with this year and Virginia.

[MSUDuo]

I'm banking on the fact that I think the committee has a fetish for strength of schedule.

And a 27-7 Kansas might not just be a 1, but the overall 1. Ahead of 34-0 Wichita. Ahead of 32-2 Florida. Ahead of 32-2 Arizona. Ahead of everything. I will say their margin of error is now 0, since the next loss would mean either a) they lost to a non-tourney team, or b) they failed to win the Big 12 championship double.

Wisconsin has signature road wins up and down their schedule, have a clearly identifiable stretch that they've recovered from, and the #2 SoS in the country. The tricky part is having Michigan, not them, win the B1G title, but Wisky has a monster profile outside of that.

Going down that road, do you think WSU could be moved down for a triple digit SOS?

[2livewu]

Not with a top 40 non-con strength of schedule.