2013-2014 Bracketology thread

[rlh04d]

An argument based primarily on SOS does exactly that- ignores the losses to the tough teams and rewards simply playing them.

And yes, I would place Syracuse above Kansas on the S-Curve if the tournament started today. 7-2 vs. the Top 50 plus one bad loss IMO trumps 12-7 vs. the Top 50 with no bad losses, despite the SOS differential.

I don't think there is a single legitimate argument other than the one you've chosen that Syracuse is better than Kansas.

Kansas' resume against the top 25 is actually better than their record against the top 50. Syracuse falls from 78% to 60%, behind Kansas.

There's a hell of a difference between potentially (I'll believe the Asian Sensation, but I haven't seen the numbers yet) the best schedule in the modern tournament era and Syracuse having the 64th best schedule this year. And, IMO, the loss to BC immediately drops Syracuse down a seed. That's an absolutely terrible loss ... Saint Louis to Duquesne is the only other loss from a top 25 team I can remember comparing.

Regardless, any debate you want to have about Kansas is still between Kansas being a 1 seed or the top 2 seed and you know it >=)

[Play Angry]

Kansas' resume against the top 25 is actually better than their record against the top 50. Syracuse falls from 78% to 60%, behind Kansas.

That means KU severely underperformed relative to Syracuse vs. 26-50. It's all in how you choose to spin it, which you are well aware of.

There's a hell of a difference between potentially (I'll believe the Asian Sensation, but I haven't seen the numbers yet) the best schedule in the modern tournament era and Syracuse having the 64th best schedule this year.

Never said there wasn't. But how you perform against those difficult teams is the key metric, not just playing them.

And, IMO, the loss to BC immediately drops Syracuse down a seed. That's an absolutely terrible loss ... Saint Louis to Duquesne is the only other loss from a top 25 team I can remember comparing.

That's nice you think that, but precedent goes against you with Kansas' loss to TCU last year.

Regardless, any debate you want to have about Kansas is still between Kansas being a 1 seed or the top 2 seed and you know it >=)

Even if true, that does nothing to defeat my argument and you know it >=)

But if you want to be honest with yourself and the board you should have included Wisconsin in your analysis instead of using the AP Top 10. KU by no means has a lock on a top 5 spot on the S-Curve on Selection Sunday as you imply.

[rlh04d]

But if you want to be honest with yourself and the board you should have included Wisconsin in your analysis instead of using the AP Top 10. KU by no means has a lock on a top 5 spot on the S-Curve on Selection Sunday as you imply.

I can include any team you want. AP Top 10 was just easier than picking and choosing teams that I thought could be in there.

We can bicker about it, but Selection Sunday is in two weeks, and Kansas will be a one seed or the top two seed, so oh well. You'll be angry when you see it, but it won't change it being true.

[Cdizzle]

I admit I'm out on an island on that, and on further review tonight, I'm removing Arizona from that post. I think 32-2 Arizona beats out 27-7 Kansas.

There is definitely a opportunity factor you have to throw in with Kansas. They have many more chances at signature wins than anyone else. But rlh04d, as he's done several times by now keeps stealing my points. The winning percentage is better than all but 4 teams, and Syracuse is not in good form and are clearly worse than Kansas. And Kansas does get extra credit for such a brutal schedule, like it or not.

A lot of people have been using the argument of what Wichita would do against Kansas' schedule. Extend that idea to every other team in the country. There's no team in the country that could have 5 or fewer losses against Kansas' schedule.

People and their absolutes. We don't know this. Assuming it is one of the worst possible arguments someone can make. We only know how one team could do against that schedule.

[Play Angry]

But if you want to be honest with yourself and the board you should have included Wisconsin in your analysis instead of using the AP Top 10. KU by no means has a lock on a top 5 spot on the S-Curve on Selection Sunday as you imply.

I can include any team you want. AP Top 10 was just easier than picking and choosing teams that I thought could be in there.

We can bicker about it, but Selection Sunday is in two weeks, and Kansas will be a one seed or the top two seed, so oh well. You'll be angry when you see it, but it won't change it being true.

Seems like you just made the exact type of post that frequently earns your condescending scorn.

[TheAsianSensation]

The 1 line: Florida (27-2), Arizona (27-2), Wichita St (30-0), Kansas (22-7)
The 2 line: Syracuse (26-3), Duke (23-6), Villanova (26-3), Wisconsin (24-5)
The 3 line: Michigan (21-7), Virginia (25-5), San Diego St (23-3), Creighton (23-5)
The 4 line: Iowa St (22-6), North Carolina (22-7), Michigan St (22-7), Cincinnati (24-5)
The 5 line: Oklahoma (21-8), St Louis (24-4), Memphis (21-7), Louisville (24-5)
The 6 line: Texas (21-8), UConn (23-6), UCLA (22-7), UMass (22-6)
The 7 line: Ohio St (22-8), Iowa (19-9), New Mexico (23-5), Kansas St (20-9)
The 8 line: Kentucky (21-8), SMU (23-6), VCU (22-7), Arizona St (21-8)
The 9 line: Pittsburgh (22-7), George Washington (21-7), Gonzaga (24-6), St Joseph's (21-7)
The 10 line: Colorado (20-9), Xavier (19-9), Stanford (18-10), Oklahoma St (19-10)
The 11 line: Oregon (20-8), Arkansas (20-9), BYU (20-10), Baylor (17-10), California (18-11)
The 12 line: Tennessee (17-11), Minnesota (17-12), Green Bay (21-5), Louisiana Tech (23-6), Toledo (23-5)
The 13 line: North Dakota St (20-6), Belmont (22-8), Iona (20-9), Harvard (23-4)
The 14 line: Delaware (22-9), Boston (22-9), Stephen F Austin (25-2), UC Irvine (18-10)
The 15 line: North Carolina Central (21-5), Georgia St (20-7), Davidson (18-11), Vermont (19-9)
The 16 line: Robert Morris (19-12), Weber St (14-10), FGCU (18-11), Utah Valley (16-10), High Point (14-13), Alabama St (12-11)

Bubble in:
St Joseph's, Colorado, Xavier, Stanford

Next 4 in:
Oklahoma St
Oregon
Arkansas
BYU

Last 4 in:
Baylor
California
Tennessee
Minnesota

Last 4 out:
Missouri (20-9)
Dayton (20-9)
Providence (19-10)
Georgetown (16-12)

Next 4 out:
St John's (19-11)
Florida St (17-11)
Nebraska (17-11)
*Green Bay
Southern Miss (23-5)

Bubble inception: WE NEED TO GO DEEPER
LSU (17-11)
West Virginia (16-13)
Marquette (17-12)
*Louisiana Tech
Indiana (17-12)
Richmond (18-11)
Clemson (18-10)


Partial bracket:
MIDWEST
@St Louis
1) Wichita St (30-0) vs. 16) FGCU (18-11)/Utah Valley (16-10)
8) Kentucky (21-8) vs. 9) St Joseph's (21-7)
@San Antonio
4) Iowa St (22-6) vs. 13) Iona (20-9)
5) Louisville (24-5) vs. 12) Louisiana Tech (23-6)
@Raleigh
3) Virginia (25-5) vs. 14) Boston (22-9)
6) UConn (23-6) vs. 11) Baylor(17-10)/California (18-11)
@Buffalo
2) Villanova (26-3) vs. 15) Vermont (19-9)
7) Ohio St (22-8) vs. 10) Stanford (18-10)


I know some posters have mentioned Virginia as the type of team Wichita wants away from their bracket. If Syracuse and Duke stay ahead of Virginia on the S-Curve, Virginia will be a lock for the Midwest regional. Because Duke is a lock for the South regional and Syracuse the East regional, respectively.

[shocktheheart]

The 1 line: Florida (27-2), Arizona (27-2), Wichita St (30-0), Kansas (22-7)
The 2 line: Syracuse (26-3), Duke (23-6), Villanova (26-3), Wisconsin (24-5)
The 3 line: Michigan (21-7), Virginia (25-5), San Diego St (23-3), Creighton (23-5)
The 4 line: Iowa St (22-6), North Carolina (22-7), Michigan St (22-7), Cincinnati (24-5)
The 5 line: Oklahoma (21-8), St Louis (24-4), Memphis (21-7), Louisville (24-5)
The 6 line: Texas (21-8), UConn (23-6), UCLA (22-7), UMass (22-6)
The 7 line: Ohio St (22-8), Iowa (19-9), New Mexico (23-5), Kansas St (20-9)
The 8 line: Kentucky (21-8), SMU (23-6), VCU (22-7), Arizona St (21-8)
The 9 line: Pittsburgh (22-7), George Washington (21-7), Gonzaga (24-6), St Joseph's (21-7)
The 10 line: Colorado (20-9), Xavier (19-9), Stanford (18-10), Oklahoma St (19-10)
The 11 line: Oregon (20-8), Arkansas (20-9), BYU (20-10), Baylor (17-10), California (18-11)
The 12 line: Tennessee (17-11), Minnesota (17-12), Green Bay (21-5), Louisiana Tech (23-6), Toledo (23-5)
The 13 line: North Dakota St (20-6), Belmont (22-8), Iona (20-9), Harvard (23-4)
The 14 line: Delaware (22-9), Boston (22-9), Stephen F Austin (25-2), UC Irvine (18-10)
The 15 line: North Carolina Central (21-5), Georgia St (20-7), Davidson (18-11), Vermont (19-9)
The 16 line: Robert Morris (19-12), Weber St (14-10), FGCU (18-11), Utah Valley (16-10), High Point (14-13), Alabama St (12-11)

Bubble in:
St Joseph's, Colorado, Xavier, Stanford

Next 4 in:
Oklahoma St
Oregon
Arkansas
BYU

Last 4 in:
Baylor
California
Tennessee
Minnesota

Last 4 out:
Missouri (20-9)
Dayton (20-9)
Providence (19-10)
Georgetown (16-12)

Next 4 out:
St John's (19-11)
Florida St (17-11)
Nebraska (17-11)
*Green Bay
Southern Miss (23-5)

Bubble inception: WE NEED TO GO DEEPER
LSU (17-11)
West Virginia (16-13)
Marquette (17-12)
*Louisiana Tech
Indiana (17-12)
Richmond (18-11)
Clemson (18-10)


Partial bracket:
MIDWEST
@St Louis
1) Wichita St (30-0) vs. 16) FGCU (18-11)/Utah Valley (16-10)
8) Kentucky (21-8) vs. 9) St Joseph's (21-7)
@San Antonio
4) Iowa St (22-6) vs. 13) Iona (20-9)
5) Louisville (24-5) vs. 12) Louisiana Tech (23-6)
@Raleigh
3) Virginia (25-5) vs. 14) Boston (22-9)
6) UConn (23-6) vs. 11) Baylor(17-10)/California (18-11)
@Buffalo
2) Villanova (26-3) vs. 15) Vermont (19-9)
7) Ohio St (22-8) vs. 10) Stanford (18-10)

How does the committee determine which 16 seeds play each other and which #1 seed they will play?

[TheAsianSensation]

How does the committee determine which 16 seeds play each other and which #1 seed they will play?

They usually pick the path that requires the least travel for the teams. For play-in game teams, Dayton to St Louis is the shortest travel available for 16 seeds, so that's why a PIG feeds into Wichita's spot.

[ACECARD]

Going down that road, do you think WSU could be moved down for a triple digit SOS?

The selection committee already said that they would take into account teams that tried to schedule up but for whatever reason the schedule was worse than they tried to put together.

Syracuse wanted a bad nonconference SOS. Wichita State wanted the best possible nonconference SOS to make up for what the rest of the Valley has done to us.

That's why WSU should spare no expense to get into another conference.

[MSUDuo]

Going to have some snow days this week so I figured if I was going to give it a shot this year I needed to get started.

-I didn't like having Villanova above Creighton but looking at it all, they're there.
-I have them right behind each other but why the big difference between SDSU and UMass? UMass has more t50 and t100 wins, better RPI, better non-con SOS but also more losses.
-The SEC could get 5 teams in and 3 will part of the last 4 in.

1 seeds
Arizona
Florida
Wichita State
Kansas

2 seeds
Wisconsin
Syracuse
Villanova
Virginia

3 seeds
Duke
Creighton
Michigan
Iowa State

4 seeds
Michigan State
UNC
SLU
Cincinnati

5 seeds
SDSU
UMass
Oklahoma
UCLA

6 seeds
Louisville
Texas
tOSU
Kentucky

7 seeds
New Mexico
UConn
VCU
Arizona St

8 seeds
Iowa
Memphis
KState
Xavier

9 Seeds
Gonzaga
George Washington
Pitt
SMU

10 seeds
Stanford
Colorado
St. Joe
Baylor

11 seeds
BYU
Oregon
Cal
Oklahoma St
Minnesota

12 seeds
Arkansas
Tennessee
So. Miss
Harvard
UW-Green Bay

13 seeds
Toledo
North Dakota St
Belmont
Iona

14 seeds
New Mexico St
Stephen F. Austin
Delaware
Mercer

15 seeds
Georgia St
Boston
Vermont
UC-Irvine

16 seeds
North Carolina Central
Davidson
Robert Morris
Weber St
High Point
Alabama St


Last 4 in
OK St
Minn
Ark
Tenn

First 4 out
Dayton
Mizzou
Georgetown
Providence