Trending up. Trending down.

[DUBulldog]

Bradley---up.....as long as they can keep Chin Coleman on staff, the Chicago pipeline will remain open
Drake---up....if Giacoletti can bring in a similar class this fall as he did last fall, there will be a very good foundation for the future.
Evansville---up....Marty has more talent than ever. It will be interesting to see if he continues with the "star" philosophy, where 90% of the offense flows through one player
Illinois State---up...if Muller can stop the revolving door of players. He's bringing in a lot of talent.
Indiana State---down slightly. Not sure they can completely replace what Odum brought to the program.
Loyola---up. With the move to the MVC, their recruiting will improve. Doyle is a good piece to build around
Missouri State---up. Lusk seems to improve the talent level every year.
Northern Iowa---equal. Will continue to be a very solid program every year. Jake has a system that works. It will be interesting to see if the Panthers continue to play more uptempo as they did this year.
Southern Illinois---up. Only one way for Barry's team to go. I don't see any reason why he won't get this program to the level he had at MSU.
Wichita State---down slightly. Just because the last 2 years have been so good. They'll still be very good.

It's interesting that most posters think the majority of the teams will improve over the next 4-5 years. Some teams will improve and still be Thursday night teams. But, I'd love to see the MVC get back to the level where even the Thursday night teams are very solid.

[DUBulldog]

Birds, Bears, Panthers up
Shox down its impossible to live up to their past 2 seasons
Southern, Aces, Braves sideways
Sycs, Ramblers (I hope their the dark horse), and dogs dowb

Most of the other people in this thread are predicting a lot more teams headed up than down. You pick only 3 of 10 teams to improve over the next 5 years, and I'm curious as to why you're so much more pessimistic about the league than the rest of us. You didn't include any explanation for your picks, and I'm legitimately curious.

[Snaggletooth]

Shox down its impossible to live up to their past 2 seasons

why is it impossible? There are multiple ways next year WSU team could have as good or better perceived year than last year. Even though WSU was 34-1 team last year, had a few games broken a little differently they could have easily been 31-4. I expect WSU to be as good as last year team just with a different flavor and their record may not be as good, they in fact may be more dangerous depending on how their newcomers develop to provide depth.

Also, there should be a common objective/metrics for all teams in the MVC - building a resume such they are an at-large caliber team. If teams are moving to or exceeding that threshold then they are trending up, if they are below that threshold and not moving towards it - then you are trending down.

[Cdizzle]

When referencing WSU not being able to maintain excellence, many of you are using a 2-year window. So I guess regressing to a Valley-dominating 16-2 and 5 seed in the tournament would not be excellence?

At some point, folks should probably realize that so long as Marshall is in Wichita, the chances of this team reloading and this train rolling along at a Top 20 level are pretty high.

I think the Valley will be up across the board this year (thank goodness), Indiana State notwithstanding. Should be much more fun. There were a lot of, shall we say, really freaking terrible displays of "basketball" last year. A lot of the Valley TV games were extremely difficult to watch, because the quality was just so poor. Looking forward to teams trying to beat each other next year, instead of watching both teams do their best to give the game away.

[Born2Shock]

Shox down its impossible to live up to their past 2 seasons

why is it impossible? There are multiple ways next year WSU team could have as good or better perceived year than last year. Even though WSU was 34-1 team last year, had a few games broken a little differently they could have easily been 31-4. I expect WSU to be as good as last year team just with a different flavor and their record may not be as good, they in fact may be more dangerous depending on how their newcomers develop to provide depth.

Also, there should be a common objective/metrics for all teams in the MVC - building a resume such they are an at-large caliber team. If teams are moving to or exceeding that threshold then they are trending up, if they are below that threshold and not moving towards it - then you are trending down.

This is a good thread. I like the idea of a metric, and the NCAA tourney is probably as good as any. Something to keep in mind, as the OP suggested, is a 5 year window. Statements like Marcus Marshall is gonna be back next year, or FVV is OFFDAHEEZY, dont really apply as much in a 5 year window. Obviously they have a potential huge impact in the next couple years, but how does your program roll along once they have to be replaced? Can your current coach/program do that? Will it get better or worse?

[Redbird23]

Birds, Bears, Panthers up
Shox down its impossible to live up to their past 2 seasons
Southern, Aces, Braves sideways
Sycs, Ramblers (I hope their the dark horse), and dogs dowb

Most of the other people in this thread are predicting a lot more teams headed up than down. You pick only 3 of 10 teams to improve over the next 5 years, and I'm curious as to why you're so much more pessimistic about the league than the rest of us. You didn't include any explanation for your picks, and I'm legitimately curious.

Okay fair enough...
Bradley-loss of lemon jr will hurt addition of Cunningham will help for the future but I think they have another thur night date
Evansvile- I meant to pick UE on the rise with the players they have especially ballentine I think they avoid thur
Illinois St- I like how we have a lot of returnees plus additions and qualifiers in hawkins and mcintosh and hopefully Muller continues to recruit higher level athletes to normal. I think they finish 2nd
Indiana St- loss of seniors hurts I like them to play thur I wouldn't be surprised if Lansing exceeded expectations
Loyola- I had high hopes for them at the end of arch madness going into next season I hope they avoid thur
Missouri St- great team and with Marshall back their on the rise
UNI- tuttle and mitchells time to shine I hope we can get 3 teams from the MVC this year
Southern- Great way to end the year I think beane gets 1st team great year for pgs in mvc
Wichita- amazing team even if I have to swallow my pride but I only have them going down because they won't go undefeated

[DUBulldog]

Birds, Bears, Panthers up
Shox down its impossible to live up to their past 2 seasons
Southern, Aces, Braves sideways
Sycs, Ramblers (I hope their the dark horse), and dogs dowb

Most of the other people in this thread are predicting a lot more teams headed up than down. You pick only 3 of 10 teams to improve over the next 5 years, and I'm curious as to why you're so much more pessimistic about the league than the rest of us. You didn't include any explanation for your picks, and I'm legitimately curious.

Okay fair enough...
Bradley-loss of lemon jr will hurt addition of Cunningham will help for the future but I think they have another thur night date
Evansvile- I meant to pick UE on the rise with the players they have especially ballentine I think they avoid thur
Illinois St- I like how we have a lot of returnees plus additions and qualifiers in hawkins and mcintosh and hopefully Muller continues to recruit higher level athletes to normal. I think they finish 2nd
Indiana St- loss of seniors hurts I like them to play thur I wouldn't be surprised if Lansing exceeded expectations
Loyola- I had high hopes for them at the end of arch madness going into next season I hope they avoid thur
Missouri St- great team and with Marshall back their on the rise
UNI- tuttle and mitchells time to shine I hope we can get 3 teams from the MVC this year
Southern- Great way to end the year I think beane gets 1st team great year for pgs in mvc
Wichita- amazing team even if I have to swallow my pride but I only have them going down because they won't go undefeated

I think I see why you're picks are so different.....the OP asked everybody to project 5 years down the road, and you're looking strictly at next season. Makes more sense now.

[Drakey]

Redbird seems to have forgotten Drake.

I agree with DUBulldogs assessment completely. Most of the teams in the Valley are trending up, and that includes WSU as I anticipate they will continue to be very good which will make their program even better than it is now. The problem will be that as many teams improve, their conference records may not.

[Redbird23]

****im sorry I didn't understand the question fully my mistake
***drake-I believe is a lock for thur but I like grahm woodward in their system in 2 yrs

[rlh04d]

Over five years is a point that is pretty dependent on the overall health of the program and coaching decisions.

Bradley - Up. Good God, they have to go up, right? Bradley has too many resources to continue to be down.
Drake - Up and down. Drake will improve and Giacoletti will bounce.
Evansville - Steady. Evansville has strong players for the next few years, but on a five-year timeframe, Evansville isn't going anywhere.
Illinois State - Up. Muller's a good coach. Good reason to assume he's dedicated to IlSU. Given some consistency on the roster, they're trending up.
Indiana State - Down. No commitment financially. No long-term success.
Loyola - Steady. They can't really trend down. I don't think their coach is good enough long-term.
Missouri State - Up and down. Definite upward trajectory for the next two-to-three years, but Lusk will bolt.
Northern Iowa - Steady. Second highest floor of any team in the conference, relatively high ceiling every few years, and no reason to think Jacobson plans on leaving.
SIU - Up. Hinson is a good coach, but not so good that he'll leave (although, personally, my dream situation is that he struggles just enough and SIU fires him, and WSU hires him as an assistant HC).
Wichita State - Down. I think Marshall will leave after FVV graduates (not saying Baker, as I think Baker might go pro as a JR). WSU will hire a good replacement, but a Golden Age doesn't last forever. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm happy just enjoying the next two years for now.

Up: 3.
Steady: 3.
Up enough to lose their coach and then down: 2.
Down: 2

Seems fair to me.