Cdizzle wrote:Seemed a little low to me, but perhaps that is just wishful thinking on my part. His analysis seemed pretty spot on.
"Final Projection:
If anybody besides Wichita State is going to compete for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid, it should be Northern Iowa. However, the Panthers have been down this road before where they return so much experience from an average team. And it has not always worked out as expected. The Panthers must take advantage of their returning experience and win some of their marquee non-conference games if there is any hope for an at-large berth. However, there are not many marquee games on the schedule."
Hard time disagreeing with him as well because we were average last year. However, last years schedule was brutal. Discounting the postseason opponents and UNI probably had the toughest schedule and I believe it finished in the Top 30ish for SOS. Considering how inexperienced a good portion of last years team was and also considering that they were just one extra horse, or just one more shot away from turning a mediocre record into another 20+ win season. They were 16-15 but they outplayed a good number of Valley teams for large portions of the game only to let it slip away late because some of the depth just wasn't there like it had been in the past.
Considering we replace an undersized post player who was really supposed to be just a perimeter specialist (Rank) and a feisty, intelligent yet athletically average backup PG (Morrison) with the states best recruit (Lohaus), an experienced and lengthy guard who is an above average Valley player on both ends of the court (Jesperson) and then throw in all of last years redshirt class, who have earned plenty of praise for their play in practice and the Primetime League against University of Iowa players (2 posts: Koch and Carlson; 1 guard: Knar), we will have much more talent and depth hitting the floor than last year. I have the utmost respect for Chip Rank and Matt Morrison but this team will be immensely better equipped for the season with Lohaus, Jesperson and Koch seeing floor time rather than those two. Not counting Knar, Friedman and Carlson, that's 11 guys who will likely see the floor for us on a regular basis. Considering only 4 of those 11 are forwards, you can bet Carlson and Friedman will get in on the action too.
Clearly that's got a hint of wishful thinking added to it but I imagine UNI does a much better job of finishing games than compared to last year. With an "easier" schedule (it'll still be a pretty good one) and better depth I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish with 24-25+ wins