TAS Bracketology 2014-15

[TheAsianSensation]

Time to start the NIT bubble watch for Illinois St. I had them estimated as 5 adrift from the bubble before the Wichita win. It's really going to be down to the wire for them.

NIT bid steals so far - 3
Big South
Ohio Valley
Patriot

[Wufan]

Not a shot at Illinois State at all, but they are an NIT bubble team. Good luck! You deserve to get in!

[COUTEAU]

Time to start the NIT bubble watch for Illinois St. I had them estimated as 5 adrift from the bubble before the Wichita win. It's really going to be down to the wire for them.

NIT bid steals so far - 3
Big South
Ohio Valley
Patriot

OVC, will get two bids to The NCAA Tournament.
Murray State gets an at-large.
They played three horrendous games, during one week in late November, then ran off 25 straight. (including 4-0 against VALLEY schools)
They held the nation's second longest winning streak, behind UK. And, lost by 1 in their Championship game, to Belmont in a game played in Nashville.
They're in.

Leaving more room for BIRDS

[TheAsianSensation]

First things first, Murray State's status as an at-large team has no impact on ISU's NIT chances. The OVC has poached a bid from the NIT field thanks to Belmont.

Murray St has a non-con SoS north of 200. They did not beat a team that would make the NCAA tournament, and they had shots at Valpo and Xavier to do it, and absorbed a couple bad losses. They're minus in every big metric outside of beating bad teams.

[TheAsianSensation]

We're into the final week, so time for one more S-Curve blast:

The 1 line: Kentucky (31-0), Virginia (28-2), Duke (28-3), Villanova (28-2)
The 2 line: Wisconsin (28-3), Arizona (28-3), Gonzaga (29-2), Kansas (24-7)
The 3 line: Maryland (26-5), Notre Dame (26-5), Oklahoma (21-9), Iowa St (22-8)
The 4 line: Baylor (22-8), Northern Iowa (30-3), Louisville (24-7), Utah (22-7)
The 5 line: North Carolina (24-7), Georgetown (20-9), West Virginia (23-8), Butler (22-9)
The 6 line: Wichita St (27-4), SMU (23-6), Arkansas (24-7), Providence (21-10)
The 7 line: St John's (20-10), Michigan St (21-10), Cincinnati (22-9), San Diego St (23-7)
The 8 line: Iowa (21-10), Dayton (23-7), VCU (22-9), Oregon (22-8)
The 9 line: Oklahoma St (17-12), Xavier (19-12), Colorado St (25-5), Ohio St (22-9)
The 10 line: North Carolina St (19-12), Georgia (20-10), Davidson (22-6), LSU (22-9)
The 11 line: Indiana (19-12), Boise St (22-7), Ole Miss (20-11), Purdue (20-11), UCLA (19-12)
The 12 line: Texas (19-12), BYU (22-8), Stephen F Austin (24-4), Wofford (25-6), Yale (20-9)
The 13 line: Louisiana Tech (23-7), Iona (26-7), Valparaiso (24-5), Central Michigan (19-7)
The 14 line: William & Mary (18-11), UC-Davis (22-5), Georgia St (21-9), South Dakota St (20-9)
The 15 line: North Carolina Central (21-6), Belmont (21-10), Albany (23-8), New Mexico St (19-10)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (19-12), Montana (16-11), Coastal Carolina (20-9), St Francis(NY) (22-10), North Florida (20-11), Lafayette (18-12)

Bubble in:
Colorado St
Ohio St
North Carolina St

Next 4 in:
Georgia
Davidson (currently in as A-10 leader)
LSU
Indiana
Boise St (currently in as MW leader)
Ole Miss

Last 4 in:
Purdue
UCLA
Texas
BYU

Last 4 out:
Tulsa (21-8)
Temple (22-9)
Miami (20-11)
Old Dominion (24-6)

Bubble inception (we need to go deeper):
Illinois (19-12)
Stanford (18-12)
Murray St (25-5)
Texas A&M (20-10)

[TheAsianSensation]

The most amazing statistic of Bracketology season 2015:

Average RPI win is a metric used by the selection committee that is overlooked. It's what it sounds like: the average RPI of the opponents you beat. It's a simple measure used to weed out teams who fatten up on cupcakes, and rewards those who pile up quality wins by the bushel.

Kentucky is at 105. Duke and Arizona at 109, Xavier is at 108, which is why they're safe. Villanova made hay, they're at 104, 3rd best in the country. Wisconsin is at 101, 2nd best in the country.

Kansas leads the country.

With an average of 73.

That's why they're on the 2 line. Sorry, Kansas haters, but you're gonna have to deal with this one.

[Wufan]

Good info. How does the Valley compare?

[TheAsianSensation]

Good info. How does the Valley compare?

Not good. Among NCAA locks, UNI (178) and Wichita (175) have the two worst numbers. Boise St (189), Tulsa (186), Colorado St (181), SDSU (173), BYU (16-9), Dayton (166), A&M (165), Miami (163) are next closest among tourney contenders.

Among contenders on the 3-6 line:
Maryland 134, Notre Dame 157, Baylor 109, Iowa St 114, Oklahoma 110, UNC 119, Louisville 135, Utah 147, Butler 133, Georgetown 127, WVU 137, SMU 153, Arkansas 146

[Rambler63]

The Big East and Big 12 underlings really helped with their RPI in non-con this year-- Texas Tech (10-3), TCU (13-0), Creighton (9-4), and Marquette (8-4) helped keep their worst league RPIs better than 150 for most of the year, something that didn't happen in the SEC and Mountain West.

[goramblers2011]

Time to start the NIT bubble watch for Illinois St. I had them estimated as 5 adrift from the bubble before the Wichita win. It's really going to be down to the wire for them.

NIT bid steals so far - 3
Big South
Ohio Valley
Patriot

OVC, will get two bids to The NCAA Tournament.
Murray State gets an at-large.
They played three horrendous games, during one week in late November, then ran off 25 straight. (including 4-0 against VALLEY schools)
They held the nation's second longest winning streak, behind UK. And, lost by 1 in their Championship game, to Belmont in a game played in Nashville.
They're in.

Leaving more room for BIRDS

Murrary St will not be dancing. No chance. They are NIT bound.