Final 10 Non Conference Games

[COUTEAU]

Down to one game left-

Monday - 12/28
New Mexico St @ Wichita St.

Currently the 13th rated RPI conference.

I think if WSU or UNI wins the regular season around 16-2, then maybe an at-large is possible. I'm afraid it will be a one-bid league this year.

Just so I understand your comment correctly.
According to you, if The ACES can complete The VALLEY schedule at 16-2. (same as you suggested for UNI & WSU for having the only shot at the second bid)
Because, if The ACES can go 16-2, they'll post for the season, a 27-4 record.
After having a season like that, according to your projection, would deserve no chance for an "at-large" look?

[Stickboy46]

Down to one game left-

Monday - 12/28
New Mexico St @ Wichita St.

Currently the 13th rated RPI conference.

I think if WSU or UNI wins the regular season around 16-2, then maybe an at-large is possible. I'm afraid it will be a one-bid league this year.

Just so I understand your comment correctly.
According to you, if The ACES can complete The VALLEY schedule at 16-2. (same as you suggested for UNI & WSU for having the only shot at the second bid)
Because, if The ACES can go 16-2, they'll post for the season, a 27-4 record.
After having a season like that, according to your projection, would deserve no chance for an "at-large" look?

IMO, depending on who the 2 losses are to, it works put them on the bubble at Best. That schedule will kill them. They very well could end up 27-4 with zero Top 50 RPI wins. That combined with a sub 50 RPI themselves would put them far from a lock.

[pafan]

IMO 16-2 in the conference comes pretty close to guaranteeing an NCAA berth for any of the top 3 teams. The problem is no one is likely to go 16-2 in a three team breakaway.

[2livewu]

Typical Hawaii screw job when you go there, Wichita about got beat last year.

Please don't try to draw comparisons to last year's WSU team and this year's UNI team.

[xmvcrunner]

last non conference game tomorrow, need a WSU win to give the MVC a 58-58 non conference record, vs. D-I teams

[Stickboy46]

IMO 16-2 in the conference comes pretty close to guaranteeing an NCAA berth for any of the top 3 teams. The problem is no one is likely to go 16-2 in a three team breakaway.

16-2 guarantees WSU or UNI a bid. It just puts Evansville on the bubble.

WSU and UNI both have 2 Marquee or at least quality wins. Evansville has none.

Non conf SOS
WSU: 6
UNI: 30
Evansville: ~250

Those things do matter.

[Wufan]

IMO 16-2 in the conference comes pretty close to guaranteeing an NCAA berth for any of the top 3 teams. The problem is no one is likely to go 16-2 in a three team breakaway.

16-2 guarantees WSU or UNI a bid. It just puts Evansville on the bubble.

WSU and UNI both have 2 Marquee or at least quality wins. Evansville has none.

Non conf SOS
WSU: 6
UNI: 30
Evansville: ~250

Those things do matter.

While all true, 16-2 would give the Aces at least two wins over WSU/UNI. Probably a top 50 win in there; maybe more. 16-2 puts the Aces on the right side of the bubble. 15-3 and a semi-final exit in St Louis probably puts them outside.

[PurpleAcesFootball]

IMO 16-2 in the conference comes pretty close to guaranteeing an NCAA berth for any of the top 3 teams. The problem is no one is likely to go 16-2 in a three team breakaway.

1. I would love to have this discussion of the Aces at-large chances following a 16-2 regular conference season, but that is a tall task.

2. 16-2 would be enough to get a discussion - but still probably not enough for the Aces to have an at-large. They still would need another win in St. Louis vs. UNI or WSU.

3. I say that not because I don't want the Aces to play in the NCAA - I do. I just think they only way they get there is an Arch Madness win.

4. Bubble discussions are a year to year issue, but I don't think some fans realize just how dreadful the non-conference was for the MVC and the Aces schedule. This is not your father's MVC (this year anyway.) With 351 Division 1 teams, numbers is about all the committee can really look at.

Here's some history to compare to the Aces current season:
I used RPIwizard to project a 16-2 MVC season with the 10-2 (non-D 1 does not count) plus a win over Missouri St. and a loss to UNI in St. Louis.
That profile would be 27-5, RPI 32 and SOS of 165. Could be enough, but far from a guarantee.

The MVC is currently the 13th rated RPI conference. In 2013-14, the 13th rated conference was Conference USA.
Louisiana Tech (26-7, 13-3) finished 1st (tie), RPI of 54 and SOS 164. Lost in conference final. Relegated to NIT.
Southern Miss (25-6, 13-3) another 1st (tie) team, RPI 33, SOS 131. Lost in conference semis - NIT

La Tech also had 5 top 100 wins, Southern Miss had 3 (and they were both left out). The Aces currently have 2. Only 4 opportunities exist for top 100 wins (UNI, WSU). Either the Aces sweep those 4 or get them in St. Louis.

I really want to see the Aces in the NCAA. I think it could do wonders for the school and community. I just think the only way it will happen this year is via winning in St. Louis.

[pafan]

16-2 guarantees WSU or UNI a bid. It just puts Evansville on the bubble.

Yes, obviously 16-2 for UNI is better than 16-2 for Evansville because of their better profile. But I still think 16-2 would be enough, barring something embarrassing in STL like losing to the winner of the Drake Night game.

If the winner of the MVC is 15-3 or worse, I'd say one bid league is nearly certain.

[PurpleAcesFootball]

16-2 guarantees WSU or UNI a bid. It just puts Evansville on the bubble.

Yes, obviously 16-2 for UNI is better than 16-2 for Evansville because of their better profile. But I still think 16-2 would be enough, barring something embarrassing in STL like losing to the winner of the Drake Night game.

If the winner of the MVC is 15-3 or worse, I'd say one bid league is nearly certain.

I agree. A 14-4 winner (my guess- just not sure who it will be) will still need to win the conference tourney.

For the Aces, it's really a 4 or 5 game season. They'll need 3 wins (ensuring a road or neutral win) to be in consideration.