Next Big Game - Aces @ Shox

[hot nuts]

Really looking forward to this showdown. It's a Pick 'Em in my head..but my head isn't always screwed on straight. S'pose I'll go with home team.

Hope it's as entertaining as Panthers/Dawgs!

[Championz]

Welp, Vegas has opened it up at WSU -6 and has moved to -8. So you might indeed have a headache.

[hot nuts]

Yeah, I'm certainly not one to set lines. I tend to pick with the heart, and my heart wants a close entertaining game this time.

[Cdizzle]

Don't really know what to make of this game. In my head, and on paper, I can see an Evansville with great potential. But it's also largely the same team that is 0-5 with an average margin of defeat of 18 against WSU the last 2 seasons.

It's incredibly difficult to determine if they are considerably better (a definite possibility my head and paper says is reasonable), or they just picked up 12 wins against teams with a collective 54-103 record.

It's similarly difficult to know just what WSU is right now, having dealt with so many injuries during games against solid competition. But again, there is the last couple of years to consider.

There is no Tekele Cotton this year, which may have a significant impact in this particular game, though Baker proved to be better at chasing Balentine last year anyway.

[AcesFanLegacy]

Cdizzle,

Mostly agree with you points but for an accurate record on UE opponents this year, I calculate 90-111 for all D1 opponents, 70-103 for D1 teams they beat and only non-D1 opponent is 15-1.

Hope we can make it a competitive entertaining game. The environment at Koch is intimidating, I had the unfortunate pleasure of experiencing it last year. Decided I was of NO help, so staying home this year.

[Cdizzle]

Cdizzle,

Mostly agree with you points but for an accurate record on UE opponents this year, I calculate 90-111 for all D1 opponents, 70-103 for D1 teams they beat and only non-D1 opponent is 15-1.

Hope we can make it a competitive entertaining game. The environment at Koch is intimidating, I had the unfortunate pleasure of experiencing it last year. Decided I was of NO help, so staying home this year.

I keep getting the same number. I used this to calculate. It doesn't include any non-D1 wins for anyone. Maybe it is off? Haven't checked anything else.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/ ... Evansville

[purple&orange]

I do think Evansville is better this year, the question is that can the gap be closed all the way from last year.

I think Evansville is better this year because Egidijus is better. I also think they are better because Jaylon Brown is better and the team has a PG instead of basically a split in minutes with Boo injured. I also think JB is a better fit because he can shoot the 3 where I'm not sure Boo has even taken a non-desperation clock situation 3 point attempt.

I also believe that two other role players, Adam Wing is more confident, looking for his shot and not being so robotic and along with Mislav are more consistent this season.

I think this group has learned from some of the struggles of the past as well. The Murray State game where they rebounded from a start where Murray hit a bunch of 3's (8-12 1st half) and found a way to get back in it and win in OT. Both of the 2nd halves in the conference season where they were down at halftime and came back to win games that quite frankly they should win (Indiana State at home, MSU on the road) if a conference title is in your sights.

What does that mean tomorrow? That's the fun part. The keys for Evansville are keeping DJ, Egidijus, and Jaylon Brown on the floor. The first two are pretty easy to understand but without a true backup PG right now, JB will probably need to play close to 35 minutes. The Aces are better on both ends with him on the floor. In addition Wing or Mislav need to get to double figures and help with the rebounding.

Is it a winnable game....yes but the margin of error for Evansville is a lot smaller than WSU. Any game in theory is winnable. In some ways the Shockers are a wounded animal due to injuries, they haven't had the year I imagined they envisioned so far and with UE picked 2nd this can be a statement game for them in some ways early in the MVC season. They seem to thrive on the doubt from the outside.

From an outsiders perspective, WSU thrives on the tough, gritty plays. A 3 off an offensive rebound, a run out off a steal.....the plays where they outwork the other team. What scares me the most is Egidijus getting in foul trouble, I believe he's the biggest piece of the puzzle for Evansville to have success, even as good as DJ has been.

[Stickboy46]

I do think Evansville is better this year, the question is that can the gap be closed all the way from last year.

I think Evansville is better this year because Egidijus is better. I also think they are better because Jaylon Brown is better and the team has a PG instead of basically a split in minutes with Boo injured. I also think JB is a better fit because he can shoot the 3 where I'm not sure Boo has even taken a non-desperation clock situation 3 point attempt.

I also believe that two other role players, Adam Wing is more confident, looking for his shot and not being so robotic and along with Mislav are more consistent this season.

I think this group has learned from some of the struggles of the past as well. The Murray State game where they rebounded from a start where Murray hit a bunch of 3's (8-12 1st half) and found a way to get back in it and win in OT. Both of the 2nd halves in the conference season where they were down at halftime and came back to win games that quite frankly they should win (Indiana State at home, MSU on the road) if a conference title is in your sights.

What does that mean tomorrow? That's the fun part. The keys for Evansville are keeping DJ, Egidijus, and Jaylon Brown on the floor. The first two are pretty easy to understand but without a true backup PG right now, JB will probably need to play close to 35 minutes. The Aces are better on both ends with him on the floor. In addition Wing or Mislav need to get to double figures and help with the rebounding.

Is it a winnable game....yes but the margin of error for Evansville is a lot smaller than WSU. Any game in theory is winnable. In some ways the Shockers are a wounded animal due to injuries, they haven't had the year I imagined they envisioned so far and with UE picked 2nd this can be a statement game for them in some ways early in the MVC season. They seem to thrive on the doubt from the outside.

From an outsiders perspective, WSU thrives on the tough, gritty plays. A 3 off an offensive rebound, a run out off a steal.....the plays where they outwork the other team. What scares me the most is Egidijus getting in foul trouble, I believe he's the biggest piece of the puzzle for Evansville to have success, even as good as DJ has been.

The two matchups that will be fun are:

Baker vs DJ: I think Baker will guard DJ, but i'm not sure it will be the same on the other end. Baker's D has improved a ton over last year. Can he shut down DJ?

Mock vs Morris/Grady/Nurger/Wamukota: Morris/Nurger/Wamukota were able to team up to stop Zimmerman - UNLV and Poeltl - Utah. Those are both widely considered Lottery picks. It appears Marshall has moved to a Morris/Grady combination primarily. Will that stay the same vs Mock? Or will he bring in the taller and less offensively skilled players in Nurger/Wamukota. Either way, thats 4 players to keep fresh and 20 fouls to give against Mock (though that's a lot of free throws if it goes that way) If WSU does the same thing to Mock that they did to Zimmerman and Poeltl, this is a blow-out for WSU. If Mock does what he does, it will be a close game.

[glm38]

IMO no way can any of the Shox big men handle Mock 1:1. He may get contained or shut down but if that happens it will be the result of a sagging help defense like Marshall used so effectively against Poeltl.

I hope for a close entertaining game too. But I'll pick the Shox to win. I think the Shox have beaten the Aces so regularly because Marty's offense is pretty predictable and Marshall is able to exploit that predictability.

[Rollbird5]

I'll go with Shox by 12