One bid league?

[Aargh]

Evansville and SIU have no chance with what they had in OOC play. This year the Valley can provide plenty of bad losses, but can't provide any good wins.

[Snaggletooth]

Tell me Nostradamus what does Wichita State need to do to earn an at-large bid?

WSU needs to go 16-2 or possibly 15-3. Maybe even 14-4 might be still make it if the New Mexico game is made up and assuming WSU win the regular season and gets to the championship game.

[Heinro]

I'm not a bracketology expert, but I expect 16-2 puts us squarely on the bubble and likely in Dayton, assuming we don't win in St. Louis. 17-1 probably keeps us on the 11/12 line, but maybe not in Datyon.

[TheAsianSensation]

The situation has deteriorated pretty badly for the league.

BUT. One ray of sunshine:

Wichita St non-con SoS 9
Northern Iowa non-con SoS 30

Wichita has a real fighting chance, even at 13-5, thanks to that number. UNI's resume is rapidly becoming untenable, but if they fight back that's a good number as well.

SIU is at 281. I don't necessarily want to have them drawn and quartered, because I don't think SIU thought they'd be in this position, but it will keep them out this year. One nice piece of resume working in SIU's favor: 7-1 road/neutral record so far. Pushing that out to 13 or 14 would be huge.

Evansville at 283 is fatal. What really kills is that the issue with them is that it's the cupcakes that will ruin them. They could've used 1 or maybe 2 more tougher games, but the 283 is mostly a product of 3 SWAC schools, a MEAC school, and a bad OVC school. They played a decent MTT and played Belmont and Murray. You can build a great non-con SoS with that as a base, by adding maybe 1 more marquee opponent and avoiding cupcakes.

[Cdizzle]

The situation has deteriorated pretty badly for the league.

BUT. One ray of sunshine:

Wichita St non-con SoS 9
Northern Iowa non-con SoS 30

Wichita has a real fighting chance, even at 13-5, thanks to that number. UNI's resume is rapidly becoming untenable, but if they fight back that's a good number as well.

SIU is at 281. I don't necessarily want to have them drawn and quartered, because I don't think SIU thought they'd be in this position, but it will keep them out this year. One nice piece of resume working in SIU's favor: 7-1 road/neutral record so far. Pushing that out to 13 or 14 would be huge.

Evansville at 283 is fatal. What really kills is that the issue with them is that it's the cupcakes that will ruin them. They could've used 1 or maybe 2 more tougher games, but the 283 is mostly a product of 3 SWAC schools, a MEAC school, and a bad OVC school. They played a decent MTT and played Belmont and Murray. You can build a great non-con SoS with that as a base, by adding maybe 1 more marquee opponent and avoiding cupcakes.

Good analysis. The huge difference between Evansville and SIU is that Evansville knew this year was coming, for like 3 seasons. They had the knowledge they would be a bubble-caliber team this year, and the time to develop a schedule to support that effort, and deliberately avoided it. Scheduling is hard. Getting everything put together and having all the teams work out decently is difficult. Looking at the teams, and the 283 number, it is obvious they didn't even try. If you are trying, you don't triple-dip the SWAC.

[PurpleAndWhite]

Good analysis. The huge difference between Evansville and SIU is that Evansville knew this year was coming, for like 3 seasons. They had the knowledge they would be a bubble-caliber team this year, and the time to develop a schedule to support that effort, and deliberately avoided it. Scheduling is hard. Getting everything put together and having all the teams work out decently is difficult. Looking at the teams, and the 283 number, it is obvious they didn't even try. If you are trying, you don't triple-dip the SWAC.

The OOC was created to make sure Marty kept his job and we got 22+ wins. The average joe doesn't know what a SOS is, but they see 24 W's and they think the team is good.

[sixth ace]

Jimmy Elgas who did the scheduling for UE, for at least the past 5 years, left last season. I'm not sure who took over that responsibilities. The Aces also lost another asst. coach at the same time. Basketball Travellers is a great site for coaches to find games for their respective teams but it has been secured requiring ID from the university and a pass code. It was open and the public could browse @ and see who need what.

[bigdawg]

I'm liking WSU's chances for an at large now and it looks like they'll cruise through the Valley so by seasons end it shouldn't be in question. Hopefully someone else wins in STL so we get 2. I really think UE could cause problems in March for a lot of teams in they can get into the NCAA so there's our best hope.

[Wufan]

I'm liking WSU's chances for an at large now and it looks like they'll cruise through the Valley so by seasons end it shouldn't be in question. Hopefully someone else wins in STL so we get 2. I really think UE could cause problems in March for a lot of teams in they can get into the NCAA so there's our best hope.

Right now UE is the Valleys best chance for a second team.

[glm38]

I'm liking WSU's chances for an at large now and it looks like they'll cruise through the Valley so by seasons end it shouldn't be in question. Hopefully someone else wins in STL so we get 2. I really think UE could cause problems in March for a lot of teams in they can get into the NCAA so there's our best hope.

Right now UE is the Valleys best chance for a second team.

I agree. But I just don't see them getting in unless they win in St Louis. Too bad they scheduled so light in the OOC.