Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

[WSpringsBird]

I'll pick the Redbirds third and hope for better. It's hard for me to bet against Wichita State.

Muller has improved a lot as a coach, but our offensive efficiency is woeful. His teams always play solid defense. He's a really good recruiter. But until/unless the offense improves, I just don't envision us competing for titles.

[uniftw]

In terms of proven talent 4th place is UNIs. 11 of 16 kids on the roster are new/never played in a D1 game.

The thing is, UNI has quite possibly the best X/O coach in the league.

MSU and ILSU, OTOH have 2 of the 4 worst coaches in the league....and that's saying something given the bottom of the barrel coaches in this league in places.

ISU may have the physical talent but they have the coaching talent, basketball IQ and emotional control of most junior high teams.

[BuBrave2006]

MSU and ILSU, OTOH have 2 of the 4 worst coaches in the league....and that's saying something given the bottom of the barrel coaches in this league in places.

Someone should do a poll for the worst coach in the league.

[2livewu]

Couple things.

I don't buy into the "Lusk sucks" thing as much as others do. Bears have been killed by injuries and transfers. Not all of that is his fault. I'm not saying he's John Wooden but he's not that bad imho.

If you're one of the folks that thinks WSU isn't winning the league you're either

A)Convinced your recruits are better than Gregg's.
B)Only valuing the loss of Ron and Fred and ignoring your own losses etc.
C)Convinced Gregg is going to quit coaching
D)Assuming facts not in evidence (injuries etc)
E)Hoping against hope.

Look, in fact I think the top 4 teams are more balanced than the previous 4-5 years, maybe more. But you have to face the truth that WSU and the rest of the Valley have been far apart, not only on record but the actual games. It's not like Fred and Ron were tossing in a lot of buzzer beaters the last 4 seasons.

I mean something like 12 wins in conference last year by 20 or more points! These aren't competitive games, at all.

Another 13 or so 10+ wins the year before, maybe only 2 or 3 out of 21 games inside 10 (most 20+) the year before.

My point is there are probably 10? or so returning Valley men's basketball players that have the smallest inkling what it's like to be competitive against WSU and none that haven't been hammered by the Shocks.

I've got no problem devaluing the returning WSU minutes because they haven't been asked to lead the train. But to ignore the downsides idk I guess that's the offseason haha.

Fwiw I do think the league will be challenging this season, but more than one thing is going to have to go wrong here for WSU to not come out on top.

[BuBrave2006]

I mean something like 12 wins in conference last year by 20 or more points! These aren't competitive games, at all.

Another 13 or so 10+ wins the year before, maybe only 2 or 3 out of 21 games inside 10 (most 20+) the year before.

My point is there are probably 10? or so returning Valley men's basketball players that have the smallest inkling what it's like to be competitive against WSU and none that haven't been hammered by the Shocks.

Two seasons ago, one of Bradley's worst teams in history lost to Wichita 62-59.

All of those dominating victories had two things in common...Fred and Ron. No one in the league is going to care how dominant Wichita has been over the last four years. Fred and Ron are gone and while you still have a very talented team, you don't have anyone that will "scare" the other team in preparation like Fred and Ron did. Guys like Fred, Ron, Tuttle, Odum, Kyle Weems, McDermott...guys that you know are going to show up and make life extremely difficult for you even on their bad days.

Will Wichita be good? Sure

Will they win the Valley? Obviously they have a good chance

Will teams care because they had 12 victories last year by 20+ points with two AA's that are gone now? Absolutely not

[WSUShox88]

People often forget that WSU was taking teams behind the woodshed before Ron and Fred set foot on campus. But so it goes, the cycle of hope continues year after year.

[BirdsEyeView]

My point is there are probably 10? or so returning Valley men's basketball players that have the smallest inkling what it's like to be competitive against WSU and none that haven't been hammered by the Shocks.

Without looking records up, I believe ISUr (returning 4 starters) and UNI (returning 3 starters - if count Carlson given the minutes he was playing) were very competitive the last 2-3 years against Wichita.

So, your statement is half accurate, but the problem is....the two teams closest in competition to Wichita maintained a decent chunk of players who have had success against Wichita when they had Baker and FVV....now those guys are gone, ours are not.

Recruiting is one thing....turning them into the next Baker, FVV, Early, Cotton, etc. is a whole different thing. Prospects flop all the time for one reason or another.

[Cdizzle]

I mean something like 12 wins in conference last year by 20 or more points! These aren't competitive games, at all.

Another 13 or so 10+ wins the year before, maybe only 2 or 3 out of 21 games inside 10 (most 20+) the year before.

My point is there are probably 10? or so returning Valley men's basketball players that have the smallest inkling what it's like to be competitive against WSU and none that haven't been hammered by the Shocks.

Two seasons ago, one of Bradley's worst teams in history lost to Wichita 62-59.

All of those dominating victories had two things in common...Fred and Ron. No one in the league is going to care how dominant Wichita has been over the last four years. Fred and Ron are gone and while you still have a very talented team, you don't have anyone that will "scare" the other team in preparation like Fred and Ron did. Guys like Fred, Ron, Tuttle, Odum, Kyle Weems, McDermott...guys that you know are going to show up and make life extremely difficult for you even on their bad days.

Will Wichita be good? Sure

Will they win the Valley? Obviously they have a good chance

Will teams care because they had 12 victories last year by 20+ points with two AA's that are gone now? Absolutely not

The point that there has been a large gap is valid. Whether people on other teams care or are scared because of it is irrelevant. Assuming that there is no one in line behind FVV and Baker is a risk. Everyone was equally sure WSU would falter when Early left. Or when Armstead and Hall left. Or when Murry and Stutz left. The 2013 WSU team did alright in league with FVV playing backup PG and no Ron Baker. The 2012 WSU team went 16-2 with a MoV of over 14 without either of those players.

I definitely think things will be closer this year than the past 3. But that doesn't mean the size of the gap wasn't a valid point. It seems many people are approaching this season thinking of only what their team gained and what WSU lost. Other teams also lost some of their top talent. And WSU under Marshall has a much better track record of replacing top talent than anyone. It's just possible that some of those guys could be pretty darn good.

Sometimes these arguments make me laugh. Because often the people that claim the castle will crumble because a player like FVV was so good and is gone are the same people who didn't think he should have won MVC PoY. They are the same people who in February of 2015 said "Tekele Cotton just isn't a 1st Teamer", in November of 2015 said "I told you they would suck without Tekele Cotton" and were no where to be found in February of 2016.

[Cdizzle]

Recruiting is one thing....turning them into the next Baker, FVV, Early, Cotton, etc. is a whole different thing. Prospects flop all the time for one reason or another.

The fact that you listed 4 players and then put an etc. says a lot about why there is a hole in your argument.

UNI has definitely had some success. And proven that they can reload, at the very least on a cadence. ISU has been a little less so (2-5), but has had the problem of spending all summer figuring out how to go 2-5 against WSU instead of figuring out how to go 6-0 against MSU and SIU. I would wager it is at least a big of a question if they can take that next step as is the question of Marshall reloading.

[BirdsEyeView]

Recruiting is one thing....turning them into the next Baker, FVV, Early, Cotton, etc. is a whole different thing. Prospects flop all the time for one reason or another.

The fact that you listed 4 players and then put an etc. says a lot about why there is a hole in your argument.

UNI has definitely had some success. And proven that they can reload, at the very least on a cadence. ISU has been a little less so (2-5), but has had the problem of spending all summer figuring out how to go 2-5 against WSU instead of figuring out how to go 6-0 against MSU and SIU. I would wager it is at least a big of a question if they can take that next step as is the question of Marshall reloading.

I get your points for sure, but there is an uncertainty for you unlike many other years. You lost Armstead, but FVV emerged in the NCAA tournament for you. Nobody has emerged behind those two guys unlike in years past at what I believe is the most important positions, ball handling guards.

McDuffie - yes
Morris - yes

Listen, you had by far the best recruiting class of anyone in the league and I still consider you guys favorites, but, WSU has more unknowns this year than it ever has in year's past. Those "etc." guys kept having known commodity replacements already in the program (minus Early - a stud JuCo get), but now you guys are counting your eggs on unknowns like Shamet who hasn't proven anything as a back up last year being hurt.

You have to agree there are more unknowns now than ever before. So, to his argument before, the teams who are returning players who are known to have some sort of success versus WSU are your biggest competition.

Totally agree on our record against the lessers of the Valley. That's the inconsistency of Dan Muller and why we can't fully trust him.