What's the next realignment domino to fall?

[SubGod22]

The inevitable split will leave the MVFC schools as one conference. But look at the possibility of the private schools of the MVC and A-10 to merge and run like the Big East. This would be most likely to happen after VCU leaves the A-10 and joins the American as well. You would have the 9 private schools of the A-10 with the 4 from the MVC and the addition of either Valpo or Detroit. The schools naturally align into 2 divisions of an ultimate mid major private league.

West
SLU
Dayton
Evansville
Bradley
Drake
Loyola
Valpo/Detroit

East
Davidson
Richmond
LaSalle
St. Joe's
St. Bonaventure
Fordham
Duquesne

The problem with this is the A-10 currently has 14 members, not 10. If VCU goes to the AAC, that still leaves them with 13. I really don't see an 18 team conference being feasible.

I have always felt that the MVC is at a serious risk of a private/public split in the near future. WSU may very well be the one bond that holds this hodge-podge band of schools together.

Back to the A-10, there are a couple of scenarios that could affect the MVC Privates. 1. Dayton is probably on the short list IF the Big East expands. Should that happen, the A-10 might consider picking up a couple or all 4 of the privates and go to 16. The MVC schools would probably be the most attractive, especially in a move to appease SLU in a Dayton-less A-10. It's doubtful SLU will see any Big East invites in the foreseeable future. 2. Should VCU leave, the A-10 could possibly approach 1 or 2 MVC teams, probably Bradley and Evansville or add a Belmont, Valpo or Loyola if they would consider 16.

Another option would be for the 4 privates to start a new conference, or claim the MVC depending on what the public schools do, and basically have a Little Big East. Bradley, Evansville, Drake, Loyola along with Belmont, Valpo, Detroit wouldn't be horrible, and could be somewhat attractive to a SLU should Dayton leave the A-10.

As for the publics, admittedly I am not as big of a college football fan as I am basketball. I don't know exactly what is involved for FBS or FCS. I think it's safe to see MSU going towards the Sun Belt, UNI and ISUr in the MAC and SIU and ISUb in the OVC. I am not sure what it would take for ISUb to get their football program compatible, but they seem like a natural rival to Ball State in the MAC.

My understanding from reading a national board, The A-10 has no desire to go west of Dayton. SLU is what it is and if the BE expands, SLU is probably near the top of the list. It would throw a bone to the west and puts them in a large market that I believe has a strong Catholic school system. Dayton is most likely blocked by Xavier. My understanding is they want nothing to do with being in the same conference as them and from a market standpoint they basically share one. With all of that said, I'm not sure the BE has any desire to expand anytime soon. Odds are they take a pay cut with their next TV deal.

If the A10 were to lose/add anyone, they will most likely stay east and keep things tight. SLU is an outlier and will stay that way if they don't move. And I only see them moving for the BE. They want east coast exposure for recruiting students.

As for the football schools, it's tough to say. The current deal with the FBS conferences maxes payments at 10 schools. So there's little incentive for most of them to expand and the MAC and CUSA are over that number. If they can expand and not lose money then there's a chance. But that gets into a lot of analytics that I don't want to bother with.

MSU and the Belt could happen, but there would need to be one more and most likely from the east. Is there a desirable option to make the eastern schools happy? If not, MSU would have a hard time getting in. I could see UNI and ISUr potentially in the MAC, but that's two more mouths to feed and some believe if the MAC expands it'll be in the east. I'm not sure it's that simple though. But there are some NE type schools that have been rumored to be interested in moving up. I believe Stony Brook is making efforts to improve facilities and set themselves up and I recently heard that Delaware has a new president that may be interested. That would give the MAC options on where to go, but there's still the numbers game.

Maybe the next CFP deal changes things and expansion becomes more reasonable for these conferences. As it is, many of these schools rely on every penny they can get from the CFP deal and are unlikely to be open to sharing with the way things are now. If there's movement in the P5 then who knows what opens up, but that appears to be quiet for the next few years. A lot can change between now and then.

[uniftw]

The inevitable split will leave the MVFC schools as one conference. But look at the possibility of the private schools of the MVC and A-10 to merge and run like the Big East. This would be most likely to happen after VCU leaves the A-10 and joins the American as well. You would have the 9 private schools of the A-10 with the 4 from the MVC and the addition of either Valpo or Detroit. The schools naturally align into 2 divisions of an ultimate mid major private league.

West
SLU
Dayton
Evansville
Bradley
Drake
Loyola
Valpo/Detroit

East
Davidson
Richmond
LaSalle
St. Joe's
St. Bonaventure
Fordham
Duquesne

The problem with this is the A-10 currently has 14 members, not 10. If VCU goes to the AAC, that still leaves them with 13. I really don't see an 18 team conference being feasible.

I have always felt that the MVC is at a serious risk of a private/public split in the near future. WSU may very well be the one bond that holds this hodge-podge band of schools together.

Back to the A-10, there are a couple of scenarios that could affect the MVC Privates. 1. Dayton is probably on the short list IF the Big East expands. Should that happen, the A-10 might consider picking up a couple or all 4 of the privates and go to 16. The MVC schools would probably be the most attractive, especially in a move to appease SLU in a Dayton-less A-10. It's doubtful SLU will see any Big East invites in the foreseeable future. 2. Should VCU leave, the A-10 could possibly approach 1 or 2 MVC teams, probably Bradley and Evansville or add a Belmont, Valpo or Loyola if they would consider 16.

Another option would be for the 4 privates to start a new conference, or claim the MVC depending on what the public schools do, and basically have a Little Big East. Bradley, Evansville, Drake, Loyola along with Belmont, Valpo, Detroit wouldn't be horrible, and could be somewhat attractive to a SLU should Dayton leave the A-10.

As for the publics, admittedly I am not as big of a college football fan as I am basketball. I don't know exactly what is involved for FBS or FCS. I think it's safe to see MSU going towards the Sun Belt, UNI and ISUr in the MAC and SIU and ISUb in the OVC. I am not sure what it would take for ISUb to get their football program compatible, but they seem like a natural rival to Ball State in the MAC.

Idiana State is infinitely closer to dropping football than moving to the MAC. There is A TON of difference between the FBS and FCS. Without details you don't care about it would cost an extra 22 football scholarships, plus title IX eqivilencies. Coaching Salaries are SIGNIFICANTLY higher. UNI's Mark Farley is one of the top paid coaches in the FCS at about 450K total pay. That would be bottom 5 in the FBS. That doesn't include assistant pay, there are 2 extra assistants, etc... It's estimated that it's an extra 3 million per year for FBS football than FCS football. Indiana State hardly affords and FCS program.

If there is this hypothetical MVC split, like the Big East, there are a few options.

Most likely is that the MVFC football schools pull away football conference mates North Dakota State, South Dakota State, South Dakota and Western Illinois from The Summit League (potentially North Dakota) from the Big Sky and "reform" the old D2 North Central Conference. I don't know what that means for other Summit members like IUPUI, IPFW, Neb-Omaha, UMKC, ORU and Denver. I would assume most would manage to get into the Horizon/Southland should that happen. Denver probably heads to the Big West or West Coast Conference.

So:
Summit/North Central
Illinois State
Indiana State
Missouri State
North Dakota
North Dakota State
Northern Iowa
South Dakota
South Dakota State
Southern Illinois
Western Illinois

There is potential for a couple existing Summit members to stick around. I have a feeling ORU and Denver would maybe try to find a new home.

As a UNI fan, I'm not sold on liking that from a basketball perspective. Football wise? Best in the FCS....it's what it is now and it is by far the best.

Now, should that split happen and teams start looking for new home there is rumors that the WAC is still trying to exist and come back in some form. I doubt that would happen, but I'd rank teams ability to go FBS in this order

1. Missouri State - everything is there except an invite. Chances of them getting anything other than Sun Belt is very low, for this reason I could probably move them down, but they are probably "most ready"

2. Northern Iowa - could make it happen with little extra work. There's already been feelers as I think the "a split could happen" vibe has been around for a while. UNI has also acknowledged their commitment to the MVC, as it currently exists. Should any other membership changes happen, that commitment will be reevaluated. There is a scenario that involves the MWC, but that isn't likely. The MAC or CUSA is the most likely situation should a move happen.

3. Illinois State - very similar situation to UNI. In fact I think the two are considered "sister insinuations. There is a bit of flux within the state of Illinois, but ISU seems to have avoided most of that through smart financial planning. MAC/CUSA seem most likely. I wouldn't be shocked if UNI/ISUr were sold as a pair depending on the situation.

After that I think there is a pretty big drop to the other 2. It sounds like the SIU system has been hit pretty hard by cuts. IIRC SIU-Carbondale had 44 million cut from it's budget a year or two ago and nearly lost it's student news paper. Any news I read about SIU-Edwardsville is never good. I suppose they might be able to swing it, but as of right now I can't see it.

Indiana State? No. Maybe I'm missing something, but they have a one sided stadium, draw about 4,000 people to most home games in their good seasons. Competitively there isn't anyone willing to take that hit.


I guess when it comes to a split I'd listen to the bitching of the private schools if any of them could actually contribute on a consistent basis - or at all. More often than not a minimum of 2 of the 4 are PIG teams. Last season 3 of the 4 were. The year before it was 2. Hell, just 3 years ago all 4 PIG teams were the private schools. If it was the public schools dragging the conference down, I'd get it. But it's not the public schools.

[uniftw]

MSU and the Belt could happen, but there would need to be one more and most likely from the east. Is there a desirable option to make the eastern schools happy? If not, MSU would have a hard time getting in. I could see UNI and ISUr potentially in the MAC, but that's two more mouths to feed and some believe if the MAC expands it'll be in the east. I'm not sure it's that simple though. But there are some NE type schools that have been rumored to be interested in moving up. I believe Stony Brook is making efforts to improve facilities and set themselves up and I recently heard that Delaware has a new president that may be interested. That would give the MAC options on where to go, but there's still the numbers game.

Maybe the next CFP deal changes things and expansion becomes more reasonable for these conferences. As it is, many of these schools rely on every penny they can get from the CFP deal and are unlikely to be open to sharing with the way things are now. If there's movement in the P5 then who knows what opens up, but that appears to be quiet for the next few years. A lot can change between now and then.

The eastern schools that are wanting to move, may move, are:

James Madison: supposedly they'll turn anything that isn't CUSA or AAC down. They told the Sun Belt no and apparently wanted the MAC to cave to a long list of demands.

Liberty: a billion dollars from their diploma mill online religious programs, gorgeous facilities, and no where to go. Turns out being founded by a far right win religious nut job, and continuing on with his traditions, doesn't sit well with public institutions looking to add to their conferences. It's why a program like Coastal Carolina gets a call for the Sun Belt and Liberty wasn't talked about.

Delaware: Interesting here. The old president, AD and football coach were all a massive drag. UD used to average 22-25K for football games, have 15K plus season tickets, etc... That was completely killed by the last set of people in charge. The new guys? They seem like they want to move. They just stole a great football coach from an in conference rival while he was still coaching in the playoffs. UD would be an interesting one to watch for CUSA or the MAC.

Stony Brook: I don't know where you heard that one. I know they've made improvements but they are still bottom half of the FCS for facilities and support.

Eastern Kentucky: I don't know how they sit financially, but they REALLY want to move and have been making moves to make themselves attractive

Outside of those 5 there isn't at on of FCS schools out east looking to move. You put those 5 with Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, Illinois State, Missouri State and maybe the two xDSU's and that's about it for teams that could, and would, move FBS currently sitting in the FCS

[jwa123]

Excellent post unitfw! The one point I might squabble a bit on is MSU being most ready for FBS. They have not historically seen much success in football at any level and don't seem to draw much for attendance. I know they hired a new coach a couple years ago and from what I have read a very capable one so given time most likely will turn things around. Then again I might be assessing their situation incorrectly and some MSU faithfull will be here shortly to set the record straight in addition to you.

As an ISUr fan, like you I too tend to think of UNI as a sister institution in that both have similar goals for both football and basketball so a move together would not be surprising. On the other hand, as mentioned in a previous post, the MVFC could serve as the backbone for a new conference. I am slowly warming up to that idea which many of brethen will view as heretical. The Dakota schools are all excellent academically and sometimes this is a factor when conference mates are set up.

As for WSU, if they should get an AAC invite, I think it would be something they should jump on.

[AceMatt]

I guess when it comes to a split I'd listen to the bitching of the private schools if any of them could actually contribute on a consistent basis - or at all. More often than not a minimum of 2 of the 4 are PIG teams. Last season 3 of the 4 were. The year before it was 2. Hell, just 3 years ago all 4 PIG teams were the private schools. If it was the public schools dragging the conference down, I'd get it. But it's not the public schools.

It's not just the MVC, look at the A-10 standings this year based on non-conference record. The bottom 7 teams are all private schools. Only Dayton and Saint Bonnie are with the 5 public schools in the top 7.
Generally speaking it seems it's easier to "fall off" at private schools especially when competing with big schools that can outspend you. Once you have a few bad years in a row, then it's harder to find recruits to bring you back, the community support and attendance both drop, and the downward spiral begins. It happened to Evansville and its happening to Bradley and Drake now. In the A-10, the attendance at Fordham and Duquesne are both under 1,000 per game.
Whether it would happen or not, I feel like the schools would be better served to re-align that way and restore a competitive balance. The more level playing field would create better competition. The hope would be to have less of a stretch of dismal seasons and more frequent opportunities for post season success. This would keep programs from becoming buried and community support and attendance would increase along with revenue.

[uniftw]

Excellent post unitfw! The one point I might squabble a bit on is MSU being most ready for FBS. They have not historically seen much success in football at any level and don't seem to draw much for attendance. I know they hired a new coach a couple years ago and from what I have read a very capable one so given time most likely will turn things around. Then again I might be assessing their situation incorrectly and some MSU faithfull will be here shortly to set the record straight in addition to you.

As an ISUr fan, like you I too tend to think of UNI as a sister institution in that both have similar goals for both football and basketball so a move together would not be surprising. On the other hand, as mentioned in a previous post, the MVFC could serve as the backbone for a new conference. I am slowly warming up to that idea which many of brethen will view as heretical. The Dakota schools are all excellent academically and sometimes this is a factor when conference mates are set up.

As for WSU, if they should get an AAC invite, I think it would be something they should jump on.

MSU being garbage probably isn't what holds them back, nearly as much as being west and the SBC looking east.

CCU has only had a football program since 2003, have a stadium that holds less than 9,000 people, and less than 3,000 season ticket holders. They have a basketball program that plays in a high school size gymnasium. HOWEVER, they have a damn good baseball program and are in Carolina. Look at the recent SBC additions - App State (NC), Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Coastal Carolina (South Carolina). As conference realignment has played out the conference has shifted from Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama and Texas to the east coast area.

Now, a few years ago they did add two Texas School - UT-Arlington and Texas State. I think UT-A was only to balance travel with TSU.

TSU is proof that being good isn't required to move to the FBS. TSU had something like 5 winning seasons between 1984 and 2012, while the FCS technically started in 1978, 1985 is widely considered the start of what we know as the FCS. They made the playoffs twice in that time frame.

By comparison, over that same time MSU has had 11 winning seasons and 2 playoff trips. Granted, since about 1993 Missouri State has been one of the worst FCS programs in the nation and hasn't won more than 6 games since 1996 and almost 10 of their last 13 seasons over .500 have been 6-5 only only 3 times since 1962 have they won more than 7 games (with two of those in 89 and 90).

It could be argued if MSU was a UNI, or even ISUr (who, to be honest outside of the last 3 or 4 years hasn't been a good program either), type program they may have gotten an invite. However, given the Sun Belt dumping Idaho and NMSU and going out to the eastern seaboard leads me to believe they still would struggle to get an invite.

The Southland would have been a great landing spot for MSU, but they've been so desperate for members the last half decade they are at 13 full members and 10 football members - including taking the likes of New Orleans (non-FB), Incarnate Word (FB...yes that's a real school), Houston Baptist (FB...yes that's a real school). They also added Oral Roberts in 2012 with those other three and a year and a half later ORU decided they wanted back into the Summit. Between 2006 and 2014 the SLC lost Louisana Monroe, Texas State, Texas Arlington, Texas San Antonio and Oral Roberts. Missouri State certainly could have leveraged something with the SLC if they truly wanted out of the MVC. They'd dominate SLC basketball and finish at/near the top of SLC football most years.

[SubGod22]

I forgot about the WAC option. It's probably unlikely, but there was a report by an AD or WAC representative that the NCAA confirmed to them that they are still capable of offering FBS membership. The transition process can be quite challenging considering there will only be one current FBS member of the WAC, unless something happened quickly and Idaho reversed course. But the home game requirement is complicated by not having FBS conference members off the bat.

With that said, there has been some speculation that the WAC may try to convince a number of FCS schools in the Big Sky/MVFC and maybe a couple of Texas schools to make a move. The problem is, they'd need at least 7 schools to move all sports to the WAC and not just be football members from my understanding. The WAC has a couple of good/decent basketball programs but nothing overly special. Would a group of others be willing to join in order to move to FBS? Would a group of UNI, ISU, MSU be willing to join with a few others if the MVC were splitting? Everyone looks to NDSU as a potential FBS team but everything you read coming from there is they have no desire to move up. Could that change if there's a bunch of movement from others to go to the WAC?

As far as Stony Brook, I don't know details, just what I've read elsewhere. They may not be ready just yet but I've heard they're working towards those improvements in order to set themselves up. Being in NY doesn't hurt them if they can improve others aspects. And as someone pointed out, FCS success doesn't guarantee or prevent anyone from moving up. A lot of other factors play into it. Liberty is the most ready and able FCS to move up but will be waiting a long ass time.

[uniftw]

I forgot about the WAC option. It's probably unlikely, but there was a report by an AD or WAC representative that the NCAA confirmed to them that they are still capable of offering FBS membership. The transition process can be quite challenging considering there will only be one current FBS member of the WAC, unless something happened quickly and Idaho reversed course. But the home game requirement is complicated by not having FBS conference members off the bat.

With that said, there has been some speculation that the WAC may try to convince a number of FCS schools in the Big Sky/MVFC and maybe a couple of Texas schools to make a move. The problem is, they'd need at least 7 schools to move all sports to the WAC and not just be football members from my understanding. The WAC has a couple of good/decent basketball programs but nothing overly special. Would a group of others be willing to join in order to move to FBS? Would a group of UNI, ISU, MSU be willing to join with a few others if the MVC were splitting? Everyone looks to NDSU as a potential FBS team but everything you read coming from there is they have no desire to move up. Could that change if there's a bunch of movement from others to go to the WAC?

As far as Stony Brook, I don't know details, just what I've read elsewhere. They may not be ready just yet but I've heard they're working towards those improvements in order to set themselves up. Being in NY doesn't hurt them if they can improve others aspects. And as someone pointed out, FCS success doesn't guarantee or prevent anyone from moving up. A lot of other factors play into it. Liberty is the most ready and able FCS to move up but will be waiting a long ass time.

The WAC is intriguing in a way to me. As an FCS fan the teams that would be part of the new WAC would be teams I would love to play against in football. The teams I see rumored most are Montana, Montana State, Eastern Washington, NDSU, SDSU, Northern Arizona, Idaha, NMSU, etc... Most of the Big Sky programs don't have near the money to make FBS work and those that do (Montanan/Montana State) don't seem to want it. They are also tied together through the state legislator so that makes that even more complicated.

NDSU and SDSU moved up together and seem to want to stay together. Where the gets real dicey is South Dakota and North Dakota moved up together and then split. It appears the state of SD is going to tether USD and SDSU together and ND seems towards moving NDSU and UND being tethered. Both SDSU and NDSU are trying to avoid that, but it's going to be tough. For them to avoid it it needs to happen in the next year or two.

I think, knowing the FCS land scape, a good start to the WAC....good being relative to knowing it's the worst FBS conference....would be

Idaho
Missouri State
Montana
Montana State
New Mexico State
North Dakota State
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State


Then it becomes what other FCS programs that want too can, and would, go for that. Maybe pull a Texas school, but I'd doubt it. Mostly likely is getting some combo of Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Eastern Washington, Weber State, and/or maybe Southern Utah. That would be a killer FCS conference, but I'm not sure any of those would go into that thinking "Yeah, that'll work at the FBS".

From the UNI perspective I don't see that being gone for. From a basketball standpoint there isn't much there. A decade ago? Maybe. At this point basketball is driving the boat at UNI for deciding what direction to go if something goes south. That's where UNI may differ from a program like Missouri State, SIU or even Illinois State. MSU, for sure, is letting football 100% drive. UNI won't subject the basketball program into a bad spot just to move football. It's why the MAC is interesting. The MAC isn't a basketball conference but it's getting better. The MAC with UNI (and whomever else to balance schedule) is better than the MVC without WSU.

I think there are too many potential hang ups for the WAC to happen, but it would be interesting to get honest answers from schools on if they'd do it, or what it would take.

[squirrel]

Chicago State is more likely to close its doors in the next few years than start a football team. If they started a football team, that would account for as many new students as this year's Fall frosh enrollment (86) for the entire university, while simultaneously multiplying their operating deficits exponentially. (I know no one here has mentioned it, but I did see on another board someone suggested that it would be a possibility.)

That said, Stony Brook is also interesting, in that Fordham fought to have the Patriot League reinstitute scholarships for football a few years ago, a seeming indicator that Lombardi U. may be interested in re-emphasizing football.

[Redhawk]

The MAC with UNI (and whomever else to balance schedule) is better than the MVC without WSU.

The MAC is a better overall option for ISUr athletics and profile than the MVC with or without WSU.
It's highly unlikely though that they are willing to do what is necessary to make that happen!