2022 Arch Madness Seeding Projections

by **Hacksaw** » February 7th, 2022, 8:38 pm

We are nearly 2/3 of the way through the conference season. Here are some conference tournament seed projections:

Arch Madness seed odds based on conference wins:

Thursday odds by team and conference wins:

Team by team seeding odds by win count (10k simulations):

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by **unipanther99** » February 8th, 2022, 8:59 am

Thank you for doing this! :Cheers:

by **BCPanther** » February 8th, 2022, 9:17 am

Thanks Hacksaw!

I don't remember a year where Thursday was settled this early.

Oh, and SIU you're playing at 8:30 Friday night. Wear Maroon.

by **Hacksaw** » February 8th, 2022, 9:35 am

BCPanther wrote:Oh, and SIU you're playing at 8:30 Friday night. Wear Maroon.

It's pretty crazy that SIU can go anywhere from 2-4 to 5-1 in their remaining 6 games and their most likely position is still the 6-seed.

by **Saluki 4 Life** » February 14th, 2022, 8:47 am

Just skimming the schedules... I hope we get an update on this today because I think SIU will be close to 50/50 of avoiding Thursday even if they don't win another game this season (and even if the odds say 50/50 I think they would get the 6 with 6 wins), and even if they win out, probably still get the 6 seed. That is wild with 5 games still remaining.

by **Hacksaw** » February 14th, 2022, 1:01 pm

2/14 Update - 74% of games played.

Team by Team:

by **hot nuts** » February 15th, 2022, 10:35 am

As a Redbird fan I'm still looking forward to Arch Madness...always fun to talk to the other fans (unless we aren't allowed to talk to people like last year).

by **Hacksaw** » February 17th, 2022, 10:02 am

18 games remaining = The final 262,144 scenarios!

Here are the unweighted odds (effectively gives each team a 50% chance to win each remaining game):

Here are the more realistic weighted odds (with game outcome weightings shown in the chart):

by **Saluki 4 Life** » February 17th, 2022, 10:37 am

Do you have the team by team break down based on how many wins they get?

by **Hacksaw** » February 17th, 2022, 10:53 am

Saluki 4 Life wrote:Do you have the team by team break down based on how many wins they get?

Sure thing. These are still based off of the simulations (total of 10k), but give effectively the same result.