2022 Arch Madness Seeding Projections

[Hacksaw]

We are nearly 2/3 of the way through the conference season. Here are some conference tournament seed projections:


Arch Madness seed odds based on conference wins:


Thursday odds by team and conference wins:


Team by team seeding odds by win count (10k simulations):

[unipanther99]

Thank you for doing this!

[BCPanther]

Thanks Hacksaw!

I don't remember a year where Thursday was settled this early.

Oh, and SIU you're playing at 8:30 Friday night. Wear Maroon.

[Hacksaw]

Oh, and SIU you're playing at 8:30 Friday night. Wear Maroon.

It's pretty crazy that SIU can go anywhere from 2-4 to 5-1 in their remaining 6 games and their most likely position is still the 6-seed.

[Saluki 4 Life]

Just skimming the schedules... I hope we get an update on this today because I think SIU will be close to 50/50 of avoiding Thursday even if they don't win another game this season (and even if the odds say 50/50 I think they would get the 6 with 6 wins), and even if they win out, probably still get the 6 seed. That is wild with 5 games still remaining.

[Hacksaw]

2/14 Update - 74% of games played.




Team by Team:

[hot nuts]

As a Redbird fan I'm still looking forward to Arch Madness...always fun to talk to the other fans (unless we aren't allowed to talk to people like last year).

[Hacksaw]

18 games remaining = The final 262,144 scenarios!

Here are the unweighted odds (effectively gives each team a 50% chance to win each remaining game):


Here are the more realistic weighted odds (with game outcome weightings shown in the chart):

[Saluki 4 Life]

Do you have the team by team break down based on how many wins they get?

[Hacksaw]

Do you have the team by team break down based on how many wins they get?

Sure thing. These are still based off of the simulations (total of 10k), but give effectively the same result.