Big dance possibilities

by **Pickwick68** » February 6th, 2017, 5:57 pm

Just putting this question out there. Supposing the regular season MVC champion, and the Arch Madness Champion. Is two different teams again this year. What are the chances that the MVC gets two teams into the Big Dance?

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by **Wufan** » February 6th, 2017, 6:54 pm

It's probably 60/40 that two get in if those two teams are 19-1 WSU and ISU. 50/50 of if a 16-2 WSU/ISU beats a 19-1 ISU/WSU. Less than 10% if anyone else beats one of those two teams, and 0% if the league champion is 18-2 or worse going in.

by **Old School MVC** » February 6th, 2017, 8:29 pm

ISUr lost their at large bid chances on Saturday. If WSU runs the table until Sunday at STL and loses a close game, then I think they will go. Otherwise we will have a tough time getting more than the Tourney Champ in.

by **All-MVC Fan** » February 6th, 2017, 8:51 pm

Lunardi's latest bracketology has both WSU and ISUR in the field...

by **TheObserver** » February 6th, 2017, 9:18 pm

All-MVC Fan wrote:Lunardi's latest bracketology has both WSU and ISUR in the field...

Unless it's Sunday, March 12, 2017 at 4:00pm, I wouldn't trust that worth anything.

by **Redbirds4Life** » February 7th, 2017, 8:34 am

How is Illinois State about 20 spots ahead of Wichita State in RPI? And what actually goes into the RPI?

by **hot nuts** » February 7th, 2017, 8:47 am

Too much basketball left to play to know. One of the overused cliche notions this time of year is that the bubble is soft...that's just the nature of a bubble with this many teams in the tournament. But it's true, we won't know for a couple weeks who the true bubble teams are and as of right now it's legit to consider both the Shockers and Redbirds as having a shot.

by **Stickboy46** » February 7th, 2017, 8:55 am

Redbirds4Life wrote:How is Illinois State about 20 spots ahead of Wichita State in RPI? And what actually goes into the RPI?

The people on ISUr's schedule didn't suck as bad as WSU's. WSU's schedule SEVERELY under-performed this year in comparison to expectations. It's like a who's who of the biggest disappointments. Unfortunately RPI focuses more on how your opponents do, than it does on how the actual team does. That's why KenPom is a 100000000x better ranking.

by **Redbirds4Life** » February 7th, 2017, 10:02 am

Stickboy46 wrote:
Redbirds4Life wrote:How is Illinois State about 20 spots ahead of Wichita State in RPI? And what actually goes into the RPI?

The people on ISUr's schedule didn't suck as bad as WSU's. WSU's schedule SEVERELY under-performed this year in comparison to expectations. It's like a who's who of the biggest disappointments. Unfortunately RPI focuses more on how your opponents do, than it does on how the actual team does. That's why KenPom is a 100000000x better ranking.

Still think that we have a 1 bid league, unless both ISU and WSU run the table. If both finish 17-1, I think that both will sneak in, one having to get in through the at-large pool.

What sucks, looking at Wichita State's schedule, they did schedule tough. Problem like one of you said earlier, is that they have an underperforming schedule. The fact is that they don't have any non-conference wins worth anything. It is probably the biggest argument against them and might be their demise if they don't win Arch Madness.

Illinois State looks like they tried to schedule tougher, but not as tough as they needed to. After all these years, I still don't understand why Illinois State doesn't schedule a 1 and done game with a top end school, to at nothing else, give you at least a shot at a signature win. Redbirds have also put themselves in a spot where Arch Madness will probably their only way in.

It is a real shame that the two teams are pretty solid teams and with the right matchup in the NCAAs could easily win a game or two. The biggest blame is that the rest of the league has really put the screws to the Birds/Shox by not doing anything in the Non-Conference and beating each other up in league play. The conference matchups aren't a way to boost a resume for either team....they are just games that can kill a resume.

by **Stickboy46** » February 7th, 2017, 10:12 am

Redbirds4Life wrote:
Stickboy46 wrote:
Redbirds4Life wrote:How is Illinois State about 20 spots ahead of Wichita State in RPI? And what actually goes into the RPI?

The people on ISUr's schedule didn't suck as bad as WSU's. WSU's schedule SEVERELY under-performed this year in comparison to expectations. It's like a who's who of the biggest disappointments. Unfortunately RPI focuses more on how your opponents do, than it does on how the actual team does. That's why KenPom is a 100000000x better ranking.

Still think that we have a 1 bid league, unless both ISU and WSU run the table. If both finish 17-1, I think that both will sneak in, one having to get in through the at-large pool.

What sucks, looking at Wichita State's schedule, they did schedule tough. Problem like one of you said earlier, is that they have an underperforming schedule. The fact is that they don't have any non-conference wins worth anything. It is probably the biggest argument against them and might be their demise if they don't win Arch Madness.

Illinois State looks like they tried to schedule tougher, but not as tough as they needed to. After all these years, I still don't understand why Illinois State doesn't schedule a 1 and done game with a top end school, to at nothing else, give you at least a shot at a signature win. Redbirds have also put themselves in a spot where Arch Madness will probably their only way in.

It is a real shame that the two teams are pretty solid teams and with the right matchup in the NCAAs could easily win a game or two. The biggest blame is that the rest of the league has really put the screws to the Birds/Shox by not doing anything in the Non-Conference and beating each other up in league play. The conference matchups aren't a way to boost a resume for either team....they are just games that can kill a resume.

One positive factor about WSU's resume is the lack of a bad loss. Their "worst" loss is to Michigan State at RPI 48. The team selection sheets have "Average RPI Win" and "Average RPI Loss" in the top left corner in really big font. The average RPI loss for WSU is only 28. That's really good. The problem is the Average RPI win is really high ha!

As for your last paragraph. This is why WSU is looking to move. You have teams that consistently perform poorly. Even the teams that do decent (UNI), don't actually help the league. Take last year for example, UNI fans consider that a good year because they made the tournament, and won a game. Which is partially true. At the same time, they absolutely did not help the league at all. They did the exact opposite. They were horrendous during the first part of the conference season and killed their RPI. Then they decided to actually play basketball and pulled a few upsets and squeaked into the tourney. They became a bad loss to the good teams in the league. That's the type of crap that drives me crazy. Teams that SHOULD be good underperform, then turn on the afterburners to "salvage their season" against the teams that actually have put together a solid resume.