Sounds like Wichita St to the AAC... Who gets an Invite?

[chitown fanatic]

As weak as the valley was this year, next year will be the weakest its ever been. UNI, ISU,Loyola and MSU all look to be taking steps backward next year. BU could crack top 3, mostly because the teams above them lose so much. Its WSU and nobody even close after that.

[VU2014]

Thoughts?

http://www.midmajormadness.com/2017/3/2 ... y-shockers

Conference realignment: What should the MVC do if (when) Wichita State leaves?
It’s time to prepare for it.
by Jordan Burton Mar 29, 2017, 11:03am PDT

Okay, so before you get fired up and prepare to send me a strongly-worded tweet or email, I need you to accept two truths:

Wichita State is going to leave the Missouri Valley Conference eventually.
The Valley is no longer the premier mid-major conference.
You’ve probably accepted the first fact, but the second might piss you off a little bit if you’re a Valley fan. As a Missouri State grad, I feel the same way but you can’t fight the numbers.

You’re unlikely to see that again from a mid-major league.

In 2012-13, the Valley had five teams finish inside of ESPN’s BPI top 100. Four of those were in the top 63. That was the end of a span that saw the Valley average seven teams inside the BPI top 150 from 2008-2013. Since Creighton left, the conference has averaged just 4.5 teams in the upper echelon of college basketball. The average BPI of a Valley team was 107.5 in Creighton’s final year, the third time in six years that average was sub-120.

Since then, the average BPI has been a mediocre 161.9 (2014), 160.4 (2015), 167 (2016) and 153.5 (2017), bolstered by an uptick of 200-plus BPIs (10 from 2008-13 to 12 from 2014-17). Contrary to popular belief, you can’t blame that all on Loyola. The Ramblers were awful in their first year, but have finished in the top-half of the league’s RPI in two of the last three years, and haven’t posted a 200-plus BPI since that inaugural run.

The conference has been fighting a slow death since Creighton left in 2013 and if it wasn’t for Wichita State, who knows what the MVC would look like. That will change when WSU jumps ship. At that point the Valley potentially falls behind the Sun Belt, MAC, Southern and Metro Atlantic conferences.

There aren’t any realistic additions that can return the Valley to its mid-2000s level. Chew it up and eat it, the conference will never be the same.

However, the Valley can reinvent itself and remain relevant following the loss of the Shockers by adopting the A-10 method of expansion. Just 10 years ago the A-10 finished 11th in conference RPI, falling behind the MVC, Horizon and WAC. The A-10 is now America’s best conference aside from the power conferences and Big East, thanks to the depth provided by adding Davidson, George Mason and VCU.

There have been several names thrown out as potential additions, each bringing something unique to the league. Here are the options.

Option A: Go for big names
Saint Louis

I don’t see this ever happening, especially with the current state of the Valley, so this is purely a dream scenario for Saint Louis to rejoin the MVC. However, this would be the first call I made if I’m Doug Elgin. Yes, SLU has finished with a 200-plus BPI in each of the last three years, which basically goes against everything I just said. But the three seasons before that were all 20-win campaigns with tournament runs. SLU was in the Valley for years, and its return would provide a boost to Arch Madness and give the league another consistent tournament (if we assume Travis Ford’s recruiting translates on the court). SLU also ranked No. 77 nationally in attendance in 2015-16, ahead of Baylor, Gonzaga and Oklahoma State (and everyone in the Valley except Wichita State). Prying the Bilikens from the A-10 would be tough, but the Valley offers a more centrally-located conference schedule, which could be enticing for all sports.

Belmont

There aren’t many mid-majors that have been better than Belmont over the last decade. Since 2005, the Bruins have averaged nearly 23 wins with seven NCAA Tournament appearances. Ricky Byrd has built something sustainable. The other draw is that Nashville to St. Louis isn’t a terrible drive and the longest trip would be to Northern Iowa (650 miles), which is actually a shorter trip than Wichita is to Loyola. The attendance numbers aren’t great but the quality of basketball is. Belmont routinely schedules well and since 2010 the Bruins have had an average BPI of 71.

Valparaiso

A Wichita State-less Missouri Valley isn’t necessarily better than the Horizon, but the addition of Valpo would provide some stability. From a proximity standpoint Valparaiso is an easier travel destination for most Valley schools than Wichita State currently is. Its average attendance from 2015-16 (3,572) would rank ahead of only Drake and Loyola. Adding Valpo would give the Valley yet another elite mid-major program that has had sustained success through coaching and conference changes. Valpo has had an average BPI of 85.4 over the last five seasons.

2018-19 Missouri Valley Conference

South North
Belmont Bradley

Evansville Drake

Indiana State Illinois State

Missouri State Loyola

Southern Illinois Northern Iowa

Saint Louis Valparaiso

This plan allows the conference to add three programs that can compete for NCAA Tournament bids immediately. You’d potentially be looking at 4-6 teams perennially that could push for top-75 BPIs, keeping the league extremely strong. In a perfect world, this would be the best “rebound” for the Valley. You could make a case that pushing to add programs at this level could have kept Wichita State from looking elsewhere all together.

Option B: Make Expansion by market

A more realistic option is to add programs that are on the rise or fill geographic needs and hope that the tradition of the league can help push them forward. Some of those programs are:

Denver

IPFW

IUPUI

Nebraska-Omaha

Northern Kentucky

Oral Roberts

SIU-Edwardsville

UMKC

Before you poo-poo on that list, understand that Loyola had two seasons of 18 or more wins in the Horizon League. The Ramblers have reached that total in two of the last four seasons since joining The Valley. The goal would be to bring in three to five programs from this list and help them raise their brand. In time, these programs are all in places where they can have sustained success. It also puts the conference into geographic locations it hasn’t been before, which can add to the overall profile of the league.

Option C: Add MVFC programs to balance league

Lastly, the Valley could grab Missouri Valley Football Conference members North Dakota, North Dakota State, South Dakota and South Dakota State, as well as one team from the previously mentioned list, and form a 14-team league with two divisions.

The travel wouldn’t be ideal, but splitting the conference with a home-and-home vs. your division and four cross division would cut down on excessive travel. The hope here is that adding these programs to a stronger conference could help boost the overall RPI. Are you replacing Wichita State outright? No. But the strength exists in the numbers.

South Dakota State has four 20-win seasons in the last six years and four NCAA Tournament bids in the last six years as well. North Dakota State has averaged more than 20 wins over the last five seasons with a pair of NCAA berths. North Dakota reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history this year and South Dakota was a 22-win team this year that received an NIT invite. These programs also come from states that have no other major universities or professional teams; they are the draw in North and South Dakota. This is the best option because of these programs’ name recognition with the rest of the conference and the success they’ve had recently in basketball.

The majority of these additions wouldn’t be “sexy” and to many outside of basketball circles they wouldn’t move the needle right now. However, these are moves that could stabilize a league that has had several members targeted in the expansion of other leagues.

Now is the time for the Valley to be aggressive and set itself up for success decades down the road. The MVC is the only mid-major league that has sent five different teams to the Sweet 16 since 2006. This is the only mid-major league that has sent multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament for nine consecutive seasons (1999-2008). It has one of the richest basketball traditions outside of the power conferences. If the league wants to continue that excellence, it must be aggressive in pursuing teams that can make that happen.

[MidWestMidMajor]

Thanks for the post, VU2014. I hadn't seen that article.

I would rename his options:
Option A: "go for the best available basketball school"
Option B: "go for the biggest available city"
Option C: "go for the Dakotas"

#C- I don't see the Dakotas leaving the good thing they got in the Summit unless the MVC can promise a lot of cash.

#B- UMKC can no more deliver the Kansas City market than Loyola can the Chicago market.

UNOmaha is on the rise (rpi 138), nice win over Iowa. But they like hanging around the Dakotas, and I'm not sure they want to put on their "big brother's" (Creighton) old MVC jersey. They are trying to carve out their own identity. Besides, they have $ problems right now, need a new Chancellor, etc.

I think the Summit might encourage the IUPU’s to leave (I'm joking- sort of) since they are out of the current footprint. Oral Roberts? I picture the MVC presidents throwing things at the power point screen like in Animal House when Flounder's face was shown at the pledge meeting (rpi this year is only 292). SIU-E? Interesting rivalry with SIU-C, but only 333 rpi.

Option A is the winner, whether a public school (Murray) or a private school (Valpo, Belmont).

[BEARZ77]

As weak as the valley was this year, next year will be the weakest its ever been. UNI, ISU,Loyola and MSU all look to be taking steps backward next year. BU could crack top 3, mostly because the teams above them lose so much. Its WSU and nobody even close after that.

I will never be very bold as long as Lusk is the HC, but MSU does not look to be taking a step back. We have every starter back except Miller, but likely get Rousseau to replace him who is better anyway. We get Williams off a RS year and he was a top 100-150 recruit and also add Scurry who is different but perhaps comparable to Johnson. His stats coming out of juco are almost identical. My guess is we are picked no worse than 3rd or 4th, perhaps even second. Again, talent isn't everything when you have a less than mediocre coach, but MSU has some players.

[VU2014]

Personally I think going after the best/most competitive schools are what is best for the Conference.

If the MVC could pull off a 3 headed monster of: Belmont, SLU and Valpo then that would be the best thing for Conf. The MVC would have 3 instant competitors for winning the MVC and have a consistent track record success and 3 of the best MidMajors in the Midwest. Might be a pipe-dream to try and land all 3.

The Valley can not risk just trying to grab a school that would enter a new market just for the sake of the new market entry. Did that already with Loyola and it looks to have been a questionable moves. Chicago is the only market worth actually trying that market grab moves and I can tell you positively nobody pays any attention to Loyola Basketball in Chicago. Valpo which is in Northwest Indiana gets more publicity and attention from the Chicago media then Loyola does (not to be to harsh but its true).

One rumor from a media member I know is pretty clued into the situation say that the Public schools in the MVC may want to replace a WSU with public school to not give too much power to the Private schools in the conference. Creighton was replaced with a Loyola (Private).

I really think SLU, Belmont and Valpo are the best choices. I'm not sure SLU would come to the MVC unless Elgin pulled off both Belmont and Valpo coming at the same time. Belmont's President's strategy is to be in a TERRIBLE OVC conference and pretty much run the conference. I think that is a terrible strategy because it backfired on them this year. Valpo would probably be the only one to accept an invite even without SLU or Belmont. Valpo is currently in the Horizon and that League looks to become much more competitive in the near future. They even have history and in-state rivalries with Indiana State and Evansville (could be good TV ratings).

[Wufan]

As weak as the valley was this year, next year will be the weakest its ever been. UNI, ISU,Loyola and MSU all look to be taking steps backward next year. BU could crack top 3, mostly because the teams above them lose so much. Its WSU and nobody even close after that.

I will never be very bold as long as Lusk is the HC, but MSU does not look to be taking a step back. We have every starter back except Miller, but likely get Rousseau to replace him who is better anyway. We get Williams off a RS year and he was a top 100-150 recruit and also add Scurry who is different but perhaps comparable to Johnson. His stats coming out of juco are almost identical. My guess is we are picked no worse than 3rd or 4th, perhaps even second. Again, talent isn't everything when you have a less than mediocre coach, but MSU has some players.

I see MSU and Loyola as improved. Not sure what to think about ISUr and UNI.

[Blers]

As weak as the valley was this year, next year will be the weakest its ever been. UNI, ISU,Loyola and MSU all look to be taking steps backward next year. BU could crack top 3, mostly because the teams above them lose so much. Its WSU and nobody even close after that.

I will never be very bold as long as Lusk is the HC, but MSU does not look to be taking a step back. We have every starter back except Miller, but likely get Rousseau to replace him who is better anyway. We get Williams off a RS year and he was a top 100-150 recruit and also add Scurry who is different but perhaps comparable to Johnson. His stats coming out of juco are almost identical. My guess is we are picked no worse than 3rd or 4th, perhaps even second. Again, talent isn't everything when you have a less than mediocre coach, but MSU has some players.

I'd also second this for MSU and Loyola. They lose Doyle, Kirby, and maybe Granic but that's it (Doyle's a big it but still...). We gain two 3 star local big men in Krutwig and Negron, have a hyper competitive three star guard in Marques Townes coming off his redshirt transfer year, as well as 3 star wing Matt Chastain coming off of an injury, the team will likely add a guard and another JUCO big. Ingram made a huge jump last year and will likely contend for an all conference spot... Jackson knows the league and will likely continue to be successful... I loved Doyle but it's reasonable to question if the offense will have more cohesive flow given that the ball will be spread out more, especially late in games. The one question will be can they finish games. Losing 7 games by a total of 16 points is brutal; and it will be interesting to see if Moser changes his coaching style without Milt.

Losing Morgan hurts for UNI but I really don't take them taking a huge step back either. Jake always adjusts, I thought their young talent impressed at times. The only one I see likely regressing is ISU, but that's because they have much farther to fall. They will still have McIntosh and a lot of last years newcomers really came on strong down the stretch, so i doubt they end up too bad.

Since the season started i've maintained that while this season was not great for the valley the arrow was pointed up for most programs. Bradley's improving, MSU and Loyola keep recruiting well, UNI is gonna UNI, Drake has a new head coach and reason to be hopeful in a few seasons. I can't really ever gauge what's happening at Southern, but they always do better than i expect.

I'm not saying there are any "must see" teams next season if WSU is out, but the arrow on a lot of programs is up IMO.

[glm38]

As weak as the valley was this year, next year will be the weakest its ever been. UNI, ISU,Loyola and MSU all look to be taking steps backward next year. BU could crack top 3, mostly because the teams above them lose so much. Its WSU and nobody even close after that.

I will never be very bold as long as Lusk is the HC, but MSU does not look to be taking a step back. We have every starter back except Miller, but likely get Rousseau to replace him who is better anyway. We get Williams off a RS year and he was a top 100-150 recruit and also add Scurry who is different but perhaps comparable to Johnson. His stats coming out of juco are almost identical. My guess is we are picked no worse than 3rd or 4th, perhaps even second. Again, talent isn't everything when you have a less than mediocre coach, but MSU has some players.

Agree regarding our Bears. Even with Lusk at the helm we should be better. I liked Miller in some ways. He was a gutsy player. But honestly he shot us out of as many games as he helped us win. And he was a defensive liability.

I would think we would be picked second or third. But that's underachieving for this group of players IMO. And like you I'm not convinced Lusk won't find some way to screw that up and we finish at around 500 again.

[municup14]

So,why is the AAC talking about expanding their conference with Wichita.
But,our conference commissioner has been silent on what our conference
Would do if they left

[Redhawk]

I see MSU and Loyola as improved. Not sure what to think about ISUr and UNI.

Agree on MSU and Loyola. I will be confident that ISUr can compete with them for second place
once Zach Copeland is locked up for sure.

As for UNI I have great respect for their coach but think that these other 3 schools... in trying
to catch up with the Shockers...have just over recruited the Panthers.