TheAsianSensation wrote:I think the nuclear scenario for the league is some combination of IlSU, UNI, and MSU escaping for FBS and the Fun Belt/MAC. For argument's sake, let's say all 3 happen.
You have 6 basketball schools left trying to add more basketball schools.
You have 8 football schools left trying to add more football schools....and 4 are the Dakotas, and 2 are Youngstown/WIU who have no stake in basketball.
All of a sudden, you have a clusterbleep in trying to add people. Basketball schools will want to add several quality basketball teams, who outside of the Dakotas and maybe Murray St, don't have football. Football schools will probably want to add at least 1 (probably 2, I'm guessing) quality football teams, but those football teams won't come unless they get to park their basketball here as well.
I'd actually wonder at that point if the Summit would consider sponsoring football, inviting SIU and InSU as one-sport members, and we'd get to kill the MVCF.
Because the other scenario would be the Dakotas pulling weight to get all 4 programs into the MVC to save the football end....and because of the collapsing Summit, we'd have to take WIU as well. (remember in this scenario the Horizon loses a basketball member to us, and some combo of IUPUI/IPFW is sitting there for them as well)
Make no mistake....I think all the Dakotas seem to be football-first schools. (NDak is probably hockey-first, but everyone is football > basketball).
That would leave, in theory:
MVC basketball west:
North Dakota
North Dakota St
South Dakota
South Dakota St
Drake
Western Illinois
MVC basketball east:
Evansville
Indiana St
Southern Illinois
Bradley
Loyola
Valparaiso (or insert your other favorite expansion candidate here)
MVC football:
North Dakota
North Dakota St
South Dakota
South Dakota St
Indiana St
Southern Illinois
Western Illinois
Youngstown St
And maybe even the Dakotas are successful in dragging Omaha with them in exchange for an eastern expansion basketball candidate.
Now, this is the nuclear scenario. Worst-case. But this is a plausible endgame if football is allowed to drive the bus. This is why I'm kinda hesitant on the XDSUs. I'd rather not give them a say in basketball affairs at all, because the domino effect could drag the other two Dakotas here and cause a chain reaction mess.
As a Sycamore alum, I'd rather "downgrade" to the OVC than be a part of that.