by TheAsianSensation » April 7th, 2017, 9:52 am
I attempted to score all candidates and see what would happen. Some of these individual scores are definitely arguable, so feel free to move numbers around as you see fit.
Warning: tl;dr follows:
After careful study, I think a reasonable case can be made for any of the following 14 schools:
Arkansas-Little Rock
Belmont
Illinois-Chicago
Milwaukee
Murray St
North Dakota St
Northern Kentucky
Oakland
Omaha
Oral Roberts
South Dakota St
UMKC
Valparaiso
Wright St
I have knocked out the following:
New Mexico St, Denver, UT-Arlington - schools who are simply too far away geographically; some of the league simply won't allow it
Green Bay - too marginal of an addition, if we want Wisconsin we get Milwaukee instead
North Dakota, South Dakota - only would be in play in some sort of nuclear scenario where the MVCF needs to merge with the MVC proper
IUPUI, IPFW - we already have 2 Indiana schools and Valpo is sitting out there
Detroit - gets outclassed by Oakland
Cleveland St, Youngstown St - probably too far east and just simply not good enough
Austin Peay - same as CSU and YSU, only in the southern direction instead
Western Illinois, Eastern Illinois, Chicago St - technically fit the map, but c'mon man
Let's score the 14 candidates on the following:
Basketball prowess (40%) - the most important part
Market (20%) - we'd rather not play in podunkville
Budget capability (20%) - the MVC represents a step up for these programs
Travel considerations (10%) - cheap members want to stay cheap
Fan base/attendance (10%) - we want a program with fan support
Basketball prowess:
5: Belmont
4: Murray St, Valparaiso
3: Oakland
2: Wright St, SDSU, NDSU
1: everyone else
Belmont is a tier of its own, and Murray and Valpo aren't far behind. What I'm looking for here is consistent winning. So it's a bit harsh to Milwaukee and NKU to be ranked where they are, but I'm rolling with this for now.
Market:
5: ....no, I can't give anyone a 5.
4: UMKC, Omaha, Milwaukee, Oakland
3: Belmont
2: Wright St, NKU, Valpo, Oral Bob, UALR
1: UIC, Murray St, XDSUs
Kansas City, Omaha, Milwaukee, and Detroit score the highest. Then Nashville. Then southwestern Ohio (WSU/NKU), northeast Indiana, Tulsa, and Little Rock. Bottom tier is a doubling up of Chicago, and the wastelands of Murray/XDSU.
Budget capability:
5: NDSU
4: SDSU, Omaha, UIC
3: Murray St, Oakland, UMKC, NKU, Milwaukee, Belmont, Valpo
2: Wright St
1: UALR, Oral Bob
Given incomplete information, I'm kind of eyeballing some of these placement. Feel free to kerjigger around.
Travel considerations:
5: UIC, Valpo
4: Milwaukee, Omaha, UMKC
3: Murray St, Oakland
2: Belmont, NKU, Wright St
1: UALR, Oral Bob, XDSUs
UIC and Valpo are the best. Omaha and UMKC score well because of our previous members; we've done those locations before. NKU and Wright St get a bump if they come together. The southern schools are a bit of an outlier.
Fan base:
5: Wright St (4k+)
4: UALR, Valpo (3.5k+)
3: Oakland, Murray St, UIC, Oral Bob (3k+)
2: NDSU, SDSU, Belmont, Milwaukee (2.5k+)
1: Omaha, NKU, UMKC
Add up the scores!:
Belmont 4
Valpo 3.5
Oakland 3.2
Murray St 3
Milwaukee 2.6
Omaha 2.5
NDakSt 2.3
Wright St 2.3
UMKC 2.3
SDakSt 2.1
UIC 1.8
NKU 1.7
UALR 1.5
Oral Bob 1.4
Well this says mostly what we already know. Belmont is the best add on paper, and Valpo is also very reasonable. Murray St and Oakland make reasonable backup options (although Murray's football is a possible compications). After that, it's a pretty jumbled mix of programs who have their strengths but also their fatal flaws.
This exercise rules out UALR and Oral Bob (if they're going to be geographic outliers, they have to bring other strengths to the table). This also takes out Northern Kentucky - who have a lot of potential, but they need to post results first to build their fan base more. This also takes out UIC, whose only real advantage is their current location. They're the lazy add which would represent that the MVC isn't trying (at least with the other 3, they're more institutional fits or upside plays).
Again, some of these individual scores are definitely arguable, so feel free to move numbers around as you see fit.
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