by mvfcfan » August 10th, 2017, 7:44 pm
I think that the MWC will take New Mexico State at some point in the near future to get them up to 12. New Mexico State will add a rivalry (with UNM) to the MWC and give them a 13th football member. (Hawaii is a FB only member).
I also think it is Grand Canyon's best interests to either stay in the WAC or wait until the WCC comes calling. A move the MVC just doesn't make too much sense for them. I think that GCU and CSU-Bakersfield both have reasonable chances of getting invites to the WCC if they both keep winning.
That's why NMST and GCU don't make much sense. As soon as they get invites to the MWC and to the WCC they'll both be gone. NMST will go MWC as soon as they get the call because of FBS football. GCU would not want to stay MVC when they'd be literally on an island all alone without NMST. With the WCC being a legit basketball conference (Gonzaga, St Mary's, BYU) that makes more sense for GCU in the long run.
Other potential losses for the WAC include UTRGV, who I could see going to the Southland Conference that currently has 13 members. Chicago State might shut down, but then again they could survive. UMKC is probably going to return to the Summit League at some point.
If all of the above happens that leaves Seattle, Cal Baptist, and Utah Valley. Utah Valley could probably get an invite to the Summit League with Denver as their travel partner so that would bring them up to 10 (assuming UMKC rejoins and IPFW leaves). The Big West would probably take Cal Baptist and Seattle. CSU Bakersfield, if they didn't end up in the WCC, would be able to go to the Big West as well.
I think the WAC will fold up shop within the next few years and the Summit League will end up getting some of the leftover teams from that conference.
The big question is what is the MVC going to do in the meantime? There is really only one team that might leave (and I doubt they will) and that is Illinois State if they decide to go the FBS route and go to the MAC. Besides that I don't really see us losing anyone in the near future. It would be nice to go to 12 to give us some cushion and have a conference that is geographically central. When you start getting too expansive you make the conference less stable. That is why I think MuSu and ORU are the best options. NKU might be a good option down the road should they continue their success and say we lose ILST or someone else.