Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

[vu72]

Went with Valpo just because of the new league with tougher competition than they are used to. But as the Sargent on Hogan's Hero's used to say, "I know no-thing".

MVC is no doubt a better league but Valpo is a no stranger to beating tough teams.

Just the last 3 years Valpo has quite a few quality wins against tough competition:
-Rhode Island (ranked Top 25 at the time)
-BYU (twice)
-Florida State
-Alabama
-St Mary's
-Oregon State
-Belmont
-Nearly beat Maryland in the 1st round of the Tourney (got screwed by a no-foul call at the end of the game)
-Valpo is 5-0 against MVC teams the last 3 years

That!

[COUTEAU]

-Valpo is 5-0 against MVC teams the last 3 years

That's correct.
VALPO, has won five in a row, against VALLEY schools.

Interesting fact.......
The ACES, being that last MVC member to beat The Crusaders.
It was early in the 2013-14 season, The ACES registered the win (100-92) coming back, after being down by 25 at halftime.
Two starters from that game (Blake Simmons & Boo Gibson) are Seniors, this year.

go aces

[VUFWAlum]

Kind of surprised, but maybe I shouldn't be because fans always are biased toward their league, that the majority here think VU, which has been at least co-champion of the Horizon League 5 out of the last 6 years and winners of their last 5 games against MVC teams, will be worse than 5 other MVC teams this season. Is the MVC without Wichita State really that much better than the HL? I know you don't know us and we don't know you. I know this is a young team... but perhaps our most athletic team. 4th or 3rd maybe, but I have a hard time seeing 6th.

Here's to getting to know you better

[ptownbraves]

Kind of surprised, but maybe I shouldn't be because fans always are biased toward their league, that the majority here think VU, which has been at least co-champion of the Horizon League 5 out of the last 6 years and winners of their last 5 games against MVC teams, will be worse than 5 other MVC teams this season. Is the MVC without Wichita State really that much better than the HL? I know you don't know us and we don't know you. I know this is a young team... but perhaps our most athletic team. 4th or 3rd maybe, but I have a hard time seeing 6th.

Here's to getting to know you better

You brought up Valpo winning against their last 5 MVC opponents, so I looked at those games and those teams' respective conference finishes:
2016- Valpo beats: MSU - tied for 6th, ISUb - finished 9th
2015- Valpo beats: MSU - tied for 7th, ISUb - tied for 7th
2014 - Valpo beats Drake - finished 7th

Not exactly the best and brightest from the MVC. That being said, I dug into the standings for the last 5 years and the average number of conference wins for 6th place is 8. The average number of conference wins for 3rd place is 10.6. That's a pretty small gap. The difference between 3rd and 6th is not as big as it seems in this league and I would argue that just about any 6th place-level team could get up to 3rd if a couple games go their way.

[BEARZ77]

I agree with you about Barry being a better coach than Porter or Paul. But I see SIU's returning pieces from their roster and see a 5th-7th place team. That certainly could under value newcomers like Pippen and Bartley (transfer from SLU).

Again it's always interesting to see how others perceive things. I'm amazed people see coaches like Lansing or Simmons as better than Hinson. Lansing won his first year, had some decent teams early and then has been on a downward spiral. SIU has finished ahead of ISUb the last 2 years and probably will again this year. Even in Simmons big year two years ago, SIU only finished a game behind . It won't happen for a while again.

As far as their[SIU] talent and place this year; I always give respect to proven winners like Jake, and Muller is certainly trending up, but neither of those rosters has as much proven returning talent as SIU so any edge initially will have to be coaching and then some players are going to have to emerge for them both. Like we've all noted, whether Moser or Lusk can turn talent and depth into consistent play remains suspect but on paper those two teams and SIU have the edge roster wise IMO. Not ready yet to predict my 1-5 teams, very slim margins for all concerned, but getting a better sense of how I think they'll lineup.

[musiccitybulldog]

I was at the Nashville tournament where Valpo played Drake, and I realize things have changed since, but Valpo had put together a potent force at that time that would have rivaled ANY MVC team. I think this year they will finish in the top three.
I think this year in particular will be one of those "everyone beating up on everyone", that's happened a lot in the past.
Jacobson is a great game strategist. Illinois State usually puts it together and ends up with good, fast, good defensive players. The other teams are all probably plus or minus 10 points of each other on any given night.

[VUFWAlum]

I think it was in the 7th Place thread that someone stated

This isn't like Loyola where they had won 1 game in conference play the previous season. Valparaiso is actually a compete right away add, which is why we went after them.

Winning in basketball is almost as much about culture as it is about talent. I think you will find that VU has a lot of talent and they certainly have a winning culture. I don't see that changing all that much. Only once in the last decade have we been below .500 in conference wins. During that same period, we averaged .575 in conference road wins and .747 in conference home wins a season. I just don't think that translates to a 6th place finish.

[underdawg]

I agree most fans think their team is better than it turns out--so I'll try not to be too homer in this post

Reports from sources at practice have 6-5, 193 lb Marcus Bartley at PG, 6-5 215 lb Sean Lloyd at the two spot guard and 6-5 207 lb Armon Fletcher at Wing Guard

They are backed by 6-4 202 LB Tyler Smithpeters, 6'5' 202 lb Brendon Gooch, 6-2 175 Eric McGill and 6-2 185 lb Aaron Cook

the story at the PF and center has 6-8 205 lb Thik Bol at PF and 6-10 240 lb Kavion Pippen at Center---this all is contingent on Bol be able to face up offensively--he has developed a very good 15-16 ft Jumper and seems to play better facing the basket according to Coach Hinson--back ups are 6-9 and 6-8. 6-8 Weiher hurt himself a couple weeks ago but should be good to go by the Regular season in November. So front court is kind of problematic as far as depth. Fans would have like Hinson to have picked up a one year Big for 2017-18 but for some reason he hasn't.

As far as how good Pippen and McGill (both JUCO's last season) we'll have to see. But PG/shooter McGill finished 10th nationally in steals (85), 11th nationally in assist to turnover ratio (3.5) and 25th nationally in assists (180 assists). Pippen finished 34th nationally in Blocks with 53

[bleach]

Kind of surprised, but maybe I shouldn't be because fans always are biased toward their league, that the majority here think VU, which has been at least co-champion of the Horizon League 5 out of the last 6 years and winners of their last 5 games against MVC teams, will be worse than 5 other MVC teams this season. Is the MVC without Wichita State really that much better than the HL? I know you don't know us and we don't know you. I know this is a young team... but perhaps our most athletic team. 4th or 3rd maybe, but I have a hard time seeing 6th.

Here's to getting to know you better

Kind of surprised Valpo would move to a league that without WSU isn't really that much better than the Horizon.

[bleach]

Again it's always interesting to see how others perceive things. I'm amazed people see coaches like Lansing or Simmons as better than Hinson. Lansing won his first year, had some decent teams early and then has been on a downward spiral. SIU has finished ahead of ISUb the last 2 years and probably will again this year. Even in Simmons big year two years ago, SIU only finished a game behind . It won't happen for a while again.

I'm amazed people don't consider where a coach is at when evaluating coaches.
Would you say it is easier to win at Terre Haute, Evansville, Or SIU?