MVC ranking

[Redbirdgrad]

Lol Delusional.

This.... is the hard hitting, educated, quality type of post you get from Shocker Nation.

And you wonder why we are all Thankful on this wonderful day that you're gone for good.

Good riddance. Nothing but a toxic coach and fan base.

[achrist70]

Hey guys did UNI a team from the inferior MVC beat SMU from that Conference of Gods the American Athletic Conference heck I think SMU even won that conference last year.

And wait was Wichita up 3 with 19 secs to play and lost?

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

I'd like to point out Wichita state isn't healthy just like isur isn't healthy. The fact that they lead the entire game and lost by 1 in November to the number 13th rated team when they aren't healthy bodes well for them. I get being salty they left but we all wish it was our school. I have no ill will towards Wichita and actually am pulling for them. I hope they win the whole damn thing. Say what you want but they're damn good and marshall has proven to be a damn good coach.

[sivert]

PRank InGame Conference Conf RPI OOC W-L (pctg.) OOC SOS Rk OOC SOS
1 1 Southeastern Conference 0.6020 47-9 (0.8393) 5 0.5281
2 2 Big 12 Conference 0.5962 37-4 (0.9024) 18 0.4956
3 3 Atlantic Coast Conference 0.5949 55-12 (0.8209) 8 0.5239
4 4 Big East Conference 0.5896 33-7 (0.8250) 10 0.5190
5 5 Pac 12 Conference 0.5638 40-11 (0.7843) 12 0.5119
6 6 Missouri Valley Conference 0.5517 29-12 (0.7073) 17 0.4960
7 7 Big Ten Conference 0.5466 52-14 (0.7879) 24 0.4820
8 8 Western Athletic Conference 0.5415 14-20 (0.4118) 1 0.5582
9 9 American Athletic Conference 0.5363 40-11 (0.7843) 28 0.4643

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-conf-rpi.html

For a moment, let’s assume this trend persists and the B1G stays worse than the MVC in the OOC season. (I know that's a big assumption with only about 1/3rd of the OOC games done, but the early-season weakness of the RPI is paucity of data, which is partially made up for by looking at conference performance.) This turn of events would make some heads explode.

I'm interested in The Asian Sensation's take on things related to that.
There has been talk of P5 conferences playing less OOC games. That, I think, would decrease the magnitude of RPI variance between conferences, but would do nothing to erase this kind of RPI standing issue.

But this also illustrates the effect of P5s playing more Conf Games. If the P5s play VERY few games against OOC opponents - for instance, one game each, then the conference-average W-L would be very nearly 50% for every conference. Since each team would be playing mostly conference games that would mean SOS and Opponent SOS would be nearly identical. Then "RPI" would be almost entirely determined by each teams W/L record. And a 75% W/L in the B12 would be nearly identical RPI-wise to a 75% W/L record in the Patriot League.

What would be the effect of dropping OOC games by 10% (close to suggested B1G change) or 25%?

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If MVC has a better RPI than the B1G at the end of OOC season, then heads will explode. Ken Pom better get his arguments ready because there will be a HUGE PUSH to adopt a better metric.

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The fact that MVC is ahead of AAC is very pleasing. The turn of events I would most want is for the MVC to have an at-large and for WSU to lose a few they shouldn't and end up with an RPI of 60. Is that bad?

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

http://m.espn.com/ncb/bracketology?iter ... &year=2018

Lunardi currently has the Redbirds as the MVCs lone participant as a 1e seed.

[goramblers2011]

http://m.espn.com/ncb/bracketology?iteration=146&region=2&year=2018

Lunardi currently has the Redbirds as the MVCs lone participant as a 1e seed.

He had Loyola in as the MVC's rep in his preseason poll. Not sure why the Birds of all teams jumped into his projection instead of UNI or Valpo (or why he even removed LU in the first place). Just goes to show how meaningless this stuff is in November. Still fun to look at though.

[VUGrad1314]

Probably comes down to strength of schedule. He's riding the high of the Redbirds' impressive third place finish in the Puerto Rico Tipoff. Despite our undefeated records neither Loyola nor Valpo owns a win as impressive as anything Illinois State has done so far. While it is unfair and the Ramblers have done nothing to play themselves off the bracket the Valley will continue to face this kind of disrespect until we force them to recognize us. UNI can take a big step towards gaining that respect tomorrow if they can beat Villanova; but it's up to all of us to do our part and keep up the stellar OOC work. Go MVC!

[TheAsianSensation]

PRank InGame Conference Conf RPI OOC W-L (pctg.) OOC SOS Rk OOC SOS
1 1 Southeastern Conference 0.6020 47-9 (0.8393) 5 0.5281
2 2 Big 12 Conference 0.5962 37-4 (0.9024) 18 0.4956
3 3 Atlantic Coast Conference 0.5949 55-12 (0.8209) 8 0.5239
4 4 Big East Conference 0.5896 33-7 (0.8250) 10 0.5190
5 5 Pac 12 Conference 0.5638 40-11 (0.7843) 12 0.5119
6 6 Missouri Valley Conference 0.5517 29-12 (0.7073) 17 0.4960
7 7 Big Ten Conference 0.5466 52-14 (0.7879) 24 0.4820
8 8 Western Athletic Conference 0.5415 14-20 (0.4118) 1 0.5582
9 9 American Athletic Conference 0.5363 40-11 (0.7843) 28 0.4643

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-conf-rpi.html

For a moment, let’s assume this trend persists and the B1G stays worse than the MVC in the OOC season. (I know that's a big assumption with only about 1/3rd of the OOC games done, but the early-season weakness of the RPI is paucity of data, which is partially made up for by looking at conference performance.) This turn of events would make some heads explode.

I'm interested in The Asian Sensation's take on things related to that.
There has been talk of P5 conferences playing less OOC games. That, I think, would decrease the magnitude of RPI variance between conferences, but would do nothing to erase this kind of RPI standing issue.

But this also illustrates the effect of P5s playing more Conf Games. If the P5s play VERY few games against OOC opponents - for instance, one game each, then the conference-average W-L would be very nearly 50% for every conference. Since each team would be playing mostly conference games that would mean SOS and Opponent SOS would be nearly identical. Then "RPI" would be almost entirely determined by each teams W/L record. And a 75% W/L in the B12 would be nearly identical RPI-wise to a 75% W/L record in the Patriot League.

What would be the effect of dropping OOC games by 10% (close to suggested B1G change) or 25%?

-----------------

If MVC has a better RPI than the B1G at the end of OOC season, then heads will explode. Ken Pom better get his arguments ready because there will be a HUGE PUSH to adopt a better metric.

-----------------

The fact that MVC is ahead of AAC is very pleasing. The turn of events I would most want is for the MVC to have an at-large and for WSU to lose a few they shouldn't and end up with an RPI of 60. Is that bad?

First things first - don't use conference RPI in November. I will eat my hat if the MVC holds on against the B1G. It's safe to say the Big 7 conferences will zoom by. Mountain West probably too. A-10 is struggling, we might get them. Same with the WCC. We'll be 9th or 10th.

I think your analysis of non-con SoS would be true if conferences were playing something like 24 conference games. At 20, there's still enough non-con games where the big boys can control things overall. Most teams average 12 non-con slots, bringing it down to 10 hurts the big boys a little, but not a lot.

But also remember which games they're cutting. The ones they're cutting are the ones that the mid-majors rely on to catch the big boys. They hurt themselves, but they hurt us just as much. So I think there's not much net gain.

There's more nuances to it as well. The A-10 is aggressive in making sure their top teams play each other 2x in conference. Going to 20 hurts them more than, say, the B1G, who is truly randomly balanced.

[sivert]

I’m sure you’re right. But since my last, we have passed the PAC12 and sit at #5. I’ll enjoy that while I can!

[uniftw]

We gonna drop hard when we drop. I’m looking at SoS numbers and there are a couple bombs in our conference

Southern Illinois 8
UNI 48
Indiana State 67
Illinois State 103
Drake 113
Bradley 255
Missouri State 286
Loyola 310
Evansville 309
Valpo 319

SIU isn’t well connected and they’ll come back down but still. Bradley and below should be at least partially embarrassed.