MVC team standing prediction

[freddycat68]

This is a nice Bradley team, but it still has alot of flaws. Only 3 or 4 guys show up each game and it is always a different group.

It's a fun and frustrating group to watch. If I had to guess, they will go 9-9 over the Valley season.

The potential of Childs went up another notch after he made three consecutive threes.

Agree with all this, but you pegged the scariest thing about BU -- it's 10-2 and has yet to hit on all cylinders. If 8 or 9 of these guys can get going the same night, yikes. And Wardle is a stud. What a hard-nosed brand of basketball he coaches. Swarming defense, knock-your-teeth-out rebounding, swagger, just relentless effort. Geno is becoming a distant memory.

[ptownbraves]

Posted on RedbirdFan by ADunk..

RealTime RPI update:
UNI- 23rd RPI, 5th SOS
ILST- 76 RPI, 16th SOS
UE- 106 RPI, 260 SOS
Valpo- 111 RPI, 256 SOS
LUC- 120 RPI, 315 SOS
MoState- 131 RPI, 261 SOS
BU- 158 RPI, 323 SOS **Worst SOS in the MVC**
SIU- 193 RPI, 252 SOS
INST- 219 RPI, 123 SOS
DU- 221 RPI, 209 SOS


Bradley can call this a great rebuild all they want when you are playing the 323rd best SOS in the country.
Loyola not any better at 315.

Really only UNI and ISUr are trying with elite SOS to attain at large contention. Obviously, ISUr has no shot of that regardless playing with 8 scholarship players (sometimes 7) in out of conference.

Using RPI metrics in December is not what I would use to analyze how good or bad a team is or whether a multi-year rebuild is successful. The schedule hasn't been great, but that isn't a verdict on how they'll be in conference play. If you've watched this year's team play compared to last year's team, it is a noticeable difference.

[BirdsEyeView]

Posted on RedbirdFan by ADunk..

RealTime RPI update:
UNI- 23rd RPI, 5th SOS
ILST- 76 RPI, 16th SOS
UE- 106 RPI, 260 SOS
Valpo- 111 RPI, 256 SOS
LUC- 120 RPI, 315 SOS
MoState- 131 RPI, 261 SOS
BU- 158 RPI, 323 SOS **Worst SOS in the MVC**
SIU- 193 RPI, 252 SOS
INST- 219 RPI, 123 SOS
DU- 221 RPI, 209 SOS


Bradley can call this a great rebuild all they want when you are playing the 323rd best SOS in the country.
Loyola not any better at 315.

Really only UNI and ISUr are trying with elite SOS to attain at large contention. Obviously, ISUr has no shot of that regardless playing with 8 scholarship players (sometimes 7) in out of conference.

Using RPI metrics in December is not what I would use to analyze how good or bad a team is or whether a multi-year rebuild is successful. The schedule hasn't been great, but that isn't a verdict on how they'll be in conference play. If you've watched this year's team play compared to last year's team, it is a noticeable difference.

At no point did I reference the RPI side of that data. In fact, I posted elsewhere the current KenPom rankings which is a much better predictor than RPI anyway.

I am happy you are getting better, it's good for the conference and our rivalry, but you have beaten nobody of consequence yet. Defeat Ole Miss and we can talk about you all finishing top 3 like some of the Bradley fans are predicting this year in conference.

[chitown fanatic]

Posted on RedbirdFan by ADunk..

RealTime RPI update:
UNI- 23rd RPI, 5th SOS
ILST- 76 RPI, 16th SOS
UE- 106 RPI, 260 SOS
Valpo- 111 RPI, 256 SOS
LUC- 120 RPI, 315 SOS
MoState- 131 RPI, 261 SOS
BU- 158 RPI, 323 SOS **Worst SOS in the MVC**
SIU- 193 RPI, 252 SOS
INST- 219 RPI, 123 SOS
DU- 221 RPI, 209 SOS


Bradley can call this a great rebuild all they want when you are playing the 323rd best SOS in the country.
Loyola not any better at 315.

Really only UNI and ISUr are trying with elite SOS to attain at large contention. Obviously, ISUr has no shot of that regardless playing with 8 scholarship players (sometimes 7) in out of conference.

Using RPI metrics in December is not what I would use to analyze how good or bad a team is or whether a multi-year rebuild is successful. The schedule hasn't been great, but that isn't a verdict on how they'll be in conference play. If you've watched this year's team play compared to last year's team, it is a noticeable difference.

At no point did I reference the RPI side of that data. In fact, I posted elsewhere the current KenPom rankings which is a much better predictor than RPI anyway.

I am happy you are getting better, it's good for the conference and our rivalry, but you have beaten nobody of consequence yet. Defeat Ole Miss and we can talk about you all finishing top 3 like some of the Bradley fans are predicting this year in conference.

That is fair but I'm more concerned now with beating the Drake. Bradley needs a fast start in conference play as February is brutal for us. Ill trade a loss tomorrow for a win next Thursday before our UNI showdown NYE. Turnovers are the Achilles heel for this team but they move the ball very well and defend better than any BU team Ive seen in over 20 years. If they shoot the way they have post JoJo, they will definitely contend...SEMO is equivalent to about half the valley teams this year, and with the shux gone, there really isn't the physical team we struggle with to speak of other than maybe Loyola.

[ptownbraves]

Since the non-con is nearly wrapped up and the first conference games are being played this weekend, here is where the league stands in KenPom as of 12/21:

75 - Missouri State
84 - Northern Iowa
93 - Loyola
100 - Bradley
126 - Valpo
142 - SIU
143 - ISUr
161 - Evansville
175 - Indiana State
198 - Drake

7 teams under 150 and everyone under 200.

[municup14]

It will interesting to see how my Aces do when we get healthy.My concern
is we I'll be 0 and 3 to start Valley play and we might be behind the eight ball before everyone gets healthy.In case nobody knows 2 starters and our top reserve player have been out for 3 weeks.Now
our starting PG,Boo will probably miss his second game in a row and maybe more due to his knee flaring up

[Old School MVC]

It will interesting to see how my Aces do when we get healthy.My concern
is we I'll be 0 and 3 to start Valley play and we might be behind the eight ball before everyone gets healthy.In case nobody knows 2 starters and our top reserve player have been out for 3 weeks.Now
our starting PG,Boo will probably miss his second game in a row and maybe more due to his knee flaring up

Hopefully they can get healthy soon. They had a nice start before the injuries. I said it earlier, when they get healthy they will surprise some in the MVC Tourney!

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

After watching Bradley get blown out by Ole Miss, which ISUr beat, my standings have changed heading into conference play.

Northern Iowa
Illinois State
Evansville
Loyola
Southern Illinois
Missouri State
Valparaiso
Bradley
Drake
Indiana State

Yes, the annual Bradley and Drake Thursday game.

[Dansen]

From The Athletic (paid site but I found the results of the article online), Ken Pomeroy wrote an article about the likelihood of each team to win each conference according to his metrics as of right now.

https://theathletic.com/194793/2017/12/ ... nce-races/

Missouri Valley: Missouri State 52%, Northern Iowa 27%, Loyola-Chicago 17%, Bradley 11%, Illinois State 11%

Kind of reaffirms what most of us think, MoState is the favorite but there's a lot of parity. The equation probably doesn't take coaching into effect but just metrics and schedule wise these are the current odds

[ACECARD]

From The Athletic (paid site but I found the results of the article online), Ken Pomeroy wrote an article about the likelihood of each team to win each conference according to his metrics as of right now.

https://theathletic.com/194793/2017/12/ ... nce-races/

Missouri Valley: Missouri State 52%, Northern Iowa 27%, Loyola-Chicago 17%, Bradley 11%, Illinois State 11%

Kind of reaffirms what most of us think, MoState is the favorite but there's a lot of parity. The equation probably doesn't take coaching into effect but just metrics and schedule wise these are the current odds

From what I saw against the Aces, Illinois St. is better than that. Yarborough (?) is as good of a player as I have seen this year. They are better than Bradley, and Loyola, in my opinion.