2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

[MVC1972]

Why is it assumed that UE and Valpo will be in the play in games? This league is wide open. UE lost to Loyola on the road by a slim margin. Several of the losses UE had could've went both ways.

[Bear4Life]

Why is it assumed that UE and Valpo will be in the play in games? This league is wide open. UE lost to Loyola on the road by a slim margin. Several of the losses UE had could've went both ways.

Well Valpo is 3-10...They would have to win out to get to 8-10 and even that probably wouldn't get them out of the PiG, in fact I think the are a 100% lock regardless of outcomes at this point.

Evansville is not a lock to be playing Thursday, but tomorrow's game @ MO State is of major significance. If Evansville loses, they would be in a tough spot to avoid Thursday due to tiebreakers (RPI) issues. If they win, then they have a good shot to avoid.

[MVC1972]

True..I see UE splitting series with Loyola and will win at Ford Center. Will be a fun Arch Madness to attend this year. With Wichita State's departure...it's wide open. Any given night...

[E-Villan]

Why is it assumed that UE and Valpo will be in the play in games? This league is wide open. UE lost to Loyola on the road by a slim margin. Several of the losses UE had could've went both ways.

Well Valpo is 3-10...They would have to win out to get to 8-10 and even that probably wouldn't get them out of the PiG, in fact I think the are a 100% lock regardless of outcomes at this point.

Evansville is not a lock to be playing Thursday, but tomorrow's game @ MO State is of major significance. If Evansville loses, they would be in a tough spot to avoid Thursday due to tiebreakers (RPI) issues. If they win, then they have a good shot to avoid.

Completely agree. For us to avoid Thursday, we are going to have win road games at both Missouri State and Indiana State. Even with that, we would still need to at minimum split our two home games, Loyola and SIU, and that wouldn't guarantee it. None of those games are easy, and running the table is daunting, especially without Dru.

[Hacksaw]

The final 1,048,576 scenarios (unweighted):

[Hacksaw]

Weighted seeding odds:

[Adunk33]

Weighted seeding odds:

Do these seedings take into account injuries?

[BirdsEyeView]

I can't believe we are favored 70/30 over Drake without Evans and Fayne

[Hacksaw]

Do these seedings take into account injuries?

The odds are based off of Sagarin's Predictor ratings. To my knowledge, there is no account of injuries in these ratings.

[pafan]

Hacksaw is correct. PREDICTOR does use any data about rosters, such as injuries, suspensions, players facing bench warrants, etc.