Updated 1/6/18: MVC Expansion Poll

[MOST]

Don't care for a merge of the Summit and Big SKy. The Summit/Dakotas will want to keep the four Dakotas and U NEB OMAHA. But do think Northern Colorado and UMKC are better fits to in the Summit.

I like more geographic regionalized conferences. New Mex State should be admitted to the MTN West--or stay in a new, reformed WAC. A reformed WAC needs to poach all the Texas teams from the CUSA and Sunbelt (UTSA, North TEX, UTEP. RICE, TEX State, TEX Arlington, maybe Arkansas State) and/or poach Sam Houston State, SF Austin and Central Arkanxas from the Southland Conf. WAC May want to keep Utah Valley U. and Grand Canyon U. for basketball

[VUGrad1314]

What an embarrassing capitulation by the WCC, but this is good news for the MVC. As for Gonzaga, this feels like it could be the right short-term move but I'm not sure about the long-term. I guess it's fair to give the WCC changes a year or so trial to see if they work for the program. It sounds like this is a matter that could be revisited in a year or so.

[VUGrad1314]

If the WCC is smart and they have truly convinced Gonzaga to stay at least for the time being they will take this opportunity to expand and add at least two of GCU Denver Seattle and Cal Baptist. GCU and Denver have the most potential because they have far and away the most money. I know they have never really drawn much throughout their basketball history, but maybe bringing in high caliber programs like Gonzaga St. Mary's and BYU as well as all the intrigue surrounding GCU would stoke enough fan interest to turn Denver's basketball fortunes around. If the WCC were to hit on both of these gambles, they could build a strong conference.

[VUGrad1314]

With the tournament winding down, hopefully we'll get some concrete news about realignment. Hopefully, this run by Loyola showed schools like Belmont that we're a conference worth joining. I really hope we can add Murray State and Belmont and get more Q1 games on the schedule for everyone. I think we could be a 2-4 bid league with those schools on board.

[TylerDurden]

With the tournament winding down, hopefully we'll get some concrete news about realignment. Hopefully, this run by Loyola showed schools like Belmont that we're a conference worth joining. I really hope we can add Murray State and Belmont and get more Q1 games on the schedule for everyone. I think we could be a 2-4 bid league with those schools on board.

This is an overly optimistic position with the current selection process. Unfortunately, the numbers tell us that two bids will be a good year and three is a perfect storm at this point.

Expansion should not be entered into lightly. While we all like to think of the best-case scenario (teams thrive, everyone plays great and the bids flow in) the reality is that the bid data suggests otherwise. I'm not sure Murray State or Belmont (which has made it known they aren't interested in leaving the OVC anyway) will move the NCAA bid needle.

Since 2006, there are essentially 11 conferences with a chance at an at-large bid. In the past four years, bids have been even more concentrated to the top six leagues with 7, 6, 4 and 5 at-large bids going to a team outside of the lock group from below.

You can break them down like so:
Locks to get at-large bids:
ACC
Big East
Big Ten
Big 12
SEC
PAC 12

Likely to get at least one at-large bid:
A10
American
Mountain West (recent shift toward the occasional list)

Occasional at-large bid:
WCC
MVC

[VUGrad1314]

How else can we make the league stronger without ridiculously stretching out the conference footprint? More internal improvement? I trust Murray State to do well unfortunately without a position shift from Belmont there is no trustworthy 12th. All it takes is one move by Gonzaga to elevate the MWC and (most likely) eliminate the WCC from this list which would leave the MVC alone on the occasional list making us easier to ignore entirely. Fortunately, that move hasn't happened yet, but I think we need to act now even if it means going to that awkward 11 because we need another profile boost to stay relevant and keep pace. Adding Murray State isn't rushing into expansion or entering into it lightly; adding Murray State is trusting decades of basketball history and securing more Q1 games for the conference.

[valleydays]

Adding Murray State would not be a home run add, which may be what those in charge interested in expansion are waiting for. Murray State would likely settle in as a middle of the road MVC school, usually in contention but no more dominant than any of the other better MVC schools. But, yes, they wouldn't hurt anyone's RPI and would usually help. But they probably won't reach present-day Loyola level but, again, who else in the MVC will? So is adding a school similar to its other schools -- similar, not better -- worth the bother for the MVC? (Of course, who saw Loyola exploding like they did? The addition was panned up until this season.)

I still believe the lords of the MVC have no interest in expansion, happy to share Loyola's recent money haul amongst themselves. Short-term thinking usually wins out.

[VUGrad1314]

Ask 2017 Illinois State or 2018 Loyola (if they hadn't won Arch Madness)whether or not they'd have liked a slight boost in the metrics. When the margin for mids is so thin we have to do what we can. The "home run adds" aren't coming unless some administrators at some schools change their minds. We don't need much to be a consistent multibid league. I really think Murray State could do it in this MVC era especially with Evansville and SIU committing to tougher scheduling. It amazes me that a conference with the foresight to see Loyola coming is missing a great add under its nose.

[IWokeUpLikeThis]

Just read the UNI board and some seem to think the MWC is giddy over them and Gonzaga. Would Murray St replace Northern Iowa?

[VUGrad1314]

The Mountain West wouldn't lift a finger when the Shockers were available but are falling over themselves to add UNI.

And UNI a school that had to shutter its baseball team for financial reasons is going to not only pay the costs necessary to go FBS but also take all of its sports to California Idaho Nevada Utah Wyoming and New Mexico.

I'll believe that when I see it.

Thank you, I needed a good laugh.