Too early 2018-19 predictions

[Rambler63]

Illinois State
Bradley
Southern Illinois
Loyola
UNI
Valpo
Indiana State
Missouri State
Drake
Evansville

College Sports Madness starts with their Top 144 previews in about three weeks. MVC should get six teams in the top 144, and four in the top 100, IMO. Last year MVC had 4 teams in the Top 144 and 1 in the top 100 (Loyola at 100th).

Wow, this is the first non-homer prediction I have seen. We have fans from each school valuing their own programs very high and this is the absolute opposite from what others have projected Loyola.

May I ask why?

FIrst, I think the top 4 will be very close together. I mean so close that 5-10 bad (or good) bounces could scramble the order very randomly. If all 4 teams end 13-5 or 12-6, somebody's still got to be 4th, even if it's by the RPI tiebreaker.

Second, I've been a Loyola fan since around 1990. I've learned to expect variations within a range after a good season (we've had so few of those) rather than extrapolation. I think we've finally got a very good formula for success at the mid-major level, a formula that makes good use of our assets and liabilities and intangibles. But there are still injuries, miscalculations, misfires on team chemistry, inventive opposing game plans, etc. Loyola will be a target next year.... I could see that when I went to the Loyola-Bradley game in Peoria last year.

Third, Loyola has a lot of talent, but we're replacing two starters and the 6th man, including two four-year seniors (one of whom was the league's defensive player of the year, the other a really versatile offensive threat and top rebounder) and a high-scoring matchup nightmare off the bench. Those three players had 333 games of D1 experience between them, and they're going to be replaced in the rotation by players who have 57 games of D1 experience. Yes, Custer is back and Krutwig should play with more savvy and consistency, but the year after the CBI season, there was a kind of leadership and determination void when Christian Thomas and hard-nosed defender/glue-guy Joe Crisman graduated. I could see that happening again with a less experienced and mature group next year. Some guys (like WIlliamson and Krutwig) are going to have a lot more leadership responsibilities on their shoulders, and sometimes it doesn't take right away.

And fourth, I tend to under-predict Loyola's finish order for the simple and selfish reason that I don't want to be terribly disappointed. I had them 2nd last year in my season preview, mostly for that reason.

[Blers]

I have LU second but agree the top 4 will be close next year, unlike the team following the CBI season this team has Alpha's in place with Custer and Townes, plus a proven defensive stud in Williamson, and arguably the best big in the conference in Krutwig. Those three are proven winners and don't seem to be the types who are satisfied with one good year. Meanwhile Aher Uguak was a player who got a ton of hype based on his work in practice last season. While it's also fair to ask why didn't play much at New Mexico; the same could be said for many players who move on, sometimes it's just not a good fit. From the little I saw though... he's gonna be legit.

The questions come with depth. Negron is a three/four star player with sky high potential, but he has to stay healthy after being held back for most of last season. The freshman Frank Agunanne is a three/four star recruit who's a physical specimen but is going to have to continue to grow his offensive game. Then while the freshman trio of guards all look the part they're still freshman and the team will need at least one or two of them to step up and contribute immediately much like Williamson, Richardson, and Ingram have done in years passed.

I could see a rocky start to the season especially with a potentially tough stretch earlier in the schedule with Nevada (who are absolutely loaded), Richmond, and BC/Wyoming. If they can pass the tests with flying colors watch out, if they lose all three who knows where their confidence goes... Still i think the starting 5 can go toe to toe with anyone and I certainly think Porter proved he could coach last season.

[valleyclimber]

I almost agree with the Dansen picks, but here's how I see the Valley shaking out:

1. Illinois St....look to be loaded and barring a ton of injuries, the Redbirds will be at or near the top
1A. Loyola....just don't see the Ramblers taking that big of step back, LUC has tasted success and want more

3. S. Illinois....SIU has plenty of pieces, can Barry finally get over the hump and have the Salukis dancing?
4. Valpo....definitely not sleeping on this team as there's plenty of talent and now they're used to MVC play
5. Bradley...upper division finish for the much improved BU program, heading in the right direction

6. N. Iowa...points for Jacobsen, but it's a tough call on the Panthers climbing back into the upper MVC
7. Indiana St..Sycamores could be a different team come Valley play, need to take care of non-con biz
8. Missouri St...Bears just may surprise and climb to sixth. Hard to gauge, but believe HC Ford will compete

9. Drake...Bulldogs will rebuild quickly with the players that are assembled, so not a gimme by any stretch
10.Evansille...happy to see the excitement over the new direction, give it time and the Aces will fast track

Overall, the Valley 1 though 8 will be very tough, and the MVC should make a jump from last season (a year in which the Valley make a nice climb back up the conference toteboard). Putting up impressive non-con Ws should be goal #1 for MVC teams because that will punch dance tickets. Definitely excited for what look's to be the best season in the Valley in quite some time.

Alright, rock on' MVC!

[glm38]

After the way Loyola dominated the regular season and then marched to a final four finish last year and given what they have coming back - to me they are an easy choice at #1.

1. Loyola
2. ISUr
3. MSU
4. SIU
5. UNI
6. Bradley
7. Valpo
8. ISUb
9. Drake
10. Evansville

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

After the way Loyola dominated the regular season and then marched to a final four finish last year and given what they have coming back - to me they are an easy choice at #1.

1. Loyola
2. ISUr
3. MSU
4. SIU
5. UNI
6. Bradley
7. Valpo
8. ISUb
9. Drake
10. Evansville

What?! What kind of kool-aid you drinking down in Springfield?

[underdawg]

ah let him have his fun. That's what boards are for

[underdawg]

A little off topic but I thought it was interesting that the the consensus (for the most part) top three picks by most posters pre-season: Loyola, Illinois State and SIU have (according to NCAA stats release yesterday) approximately the three lowest APR-----Loyola is last at 948, Illinois State is 9th at 954 and SIU is at seventh at 964--maybe there is a correlation of sorts, but I'm not certain what it is (by the way Evansville is eighth at 962 so that one doesn't fit my theory)

I'm an SIU fan so I'm not trolling! Anyway all the APRs are way above what's needed (930 or above). I found Indiana State's (966 for sixth) but have yet to find which teams are above that--maybe someone else has that

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

A little off topic but I thought it was interesting that the the consensus (for the most part) top three picks by most posters pre-season: Loyola, Illinois State and SIU have (according to NCAA stats release yesterday) approximately the three lowest APR-----Loyola is last at 948, Illinois State is 9th at 954 and SIU is at seventh at 964--maybe there is a correlation of sorts, but I'm not certain what it is (by the way Evansville is eighth at 962 so that one doesn't fit my theory)

I'm an SIU fan so I'm not trolling! Anyway all the APRs are way above what's needed (930 or above). I found Indiana State's (966 for sixth) but have yet to find which teams are above that--maybe someone else has that

Probably because of so many transfers.

[goramblers2011]

A little off topic but I thought it was interesting that the the consensus (for the most part) top three picks by most posters pre-season: Loyola, Illinois State and SIU have (according to NCAA stats release yesterday) approximately the three lowest APR-----Loyola is last at 948, Illinois State is 9th at 954 and SIU is at seventh at 964--maybe there is a correlation of sorts, but I'm not certain what it is (by the way Evansville is eighth at 962 so that one doesn't fit my theory)

I'm an SIU fan so I'm not trolling! Anyway all the APRs are way above what's needed (930 or above). I found Indiana State's (966 for sixth) but have yet to find which teams are above that--maybe someone else has that

Probably because of so many transfers.

Yeah, I'm not sure how useful APR is. I do know Loyola is tied with Columbia, Dartmouth, Gonzaga, Harvard and Yale for the highest Graduation Success Rate among its athletes (99%): http://www.loyolaramblers.com/news/2017 ... a-row.aspx

[underdawg]

Building a program oft-times leads to player flux--believe me, SIU fans understand--we've had our share the last six years