Quest to avoid the PIG

[VUGrad1314]

With trips to Carver and the ARC as well as Loyola and SIU on the schedule that is far from a safe assumption. Nothing is safe and I think this will come down to the last week and possibly the last set of games to be decided. Missouri State is playing great right now but they have a very tough remaining schedule. All of the teams in the four way tie do. We have to take this one game at a time before making pronouncements. There is still so much left to be decided.

[TreeFan]

With trips to Carver and the ARC as well as Loyola and SIU on the schedule that is far from a safe assumption. Nothing is safe and I think this will come down to the last week and possibly the last set of games to be decided. Missouri State is playing great right now but they have a very tough remaining schedule. All of the teams in the four way tie do. We have to take this one game at a time before making pronouncements. There is still so much left to be decided.

This.

[Hacksaw]

So I ran some additional simulations of the remainder of the season, with a forced result for each of the midweek games. Below is what the model kicks out for Thursday in St Louis odds for each team based the specific outcome of each of the upcoming games. For example, if Drake beats Valpo, their Thursday odds drop from 72% to 58%; however if Valpo wins, Drake would be up to a 93% likelihood of having a bottom 4 seed. These odds are based solely on the result of that game and additional games will further impact each team's odds, as well as updated Sagarin and NET rankings.

[Saluki 4 Life]

So I ran some additional simulations of the remainder of the season, with a forced result for each of the midweek games. Below is what the model kicks out for Thursday in St Louis odds for each team based the specific outcome of each of the upcoming games. For example, if Drake beats Valpo, their Thursday odds drop from 72% to 58%; however if Valpo wins, Drake would be up to a 93% likelihood of having a bottom 4 seed. These odds are based solely on the result of that game and additional games will further impact each team's odds, as well as updated Sagarin and NET rankings.

Great stuff... Although, now I am pretty nervous for SIU's game Thursday. A week ago the chart had a 0% chance of Thursday and a loss this week would bump it to 12 with games @MSU and @UNI looming... yikes.

[Mac13]

Same here- I hope the dawgs are ready to play a good 40 minutes vs Evansville and not play like they did against Valpo or during the first half against Bradley. They need to get some confidence back before they go on the road Sunday at UNI.

[uniguy]

I lol'ed at the Indy State folks who said they were a sold cold lock for Thursday. I know they were frustrated because I have been in that position and felt that way before. But I knew they still had the best chance of the four to avoid the bottom group due to their NET ranking.