2020 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

[mvfcfan]

As someone that lives in Indiana I am also hoping that Valpo can stay out of Thursday. Even though I am a Sycamore fan I enjoy seeing Valpo and Evansville do well. On the other hand I always root against IU, Purdue, Butler, and Notre Dame. Those 4 can eat dirt as far as I am concerned.

[Hacksaw]

Wait Valpo can avoid Thursday for sure if Drake loses to UNI? How does that work? Can somebody explain that to me.

Not sure how Drake plays into Valpo's seeding anymore, unless their NET miraculously happens to catch up.

Looks like this to me:
A Valpo win at Indiana State locks Valpo into the 4-5 game in STL (excluding the small chance Valpo's NET is better than Bradley's in which case they could earn the 3 seed)
A Valpo loss + a Missouri State loss = Valpo 6 seed
A Valpo loss + a Missouri State win = NET determines 6-7 seeds (currently MSU 130 to Valpo 132)

[Saluki 4 Life]

You have to think at this point there is some real clarity, especially if Valpo does not have JFL Saturday at ISUB...

UNI
Loyola
Bradley
SIU
Indiana State
Missouri State
Valpo
Drake
ISUR
Evansville

Seems to be shaking out that way. Maybe flip Indiana State and SIU depending on results tonight but it does not matter.

Maybe flip Valpo Missouri State but I have a really hard time seeing Valpo going on the road without their best player and winning.

[Hacksaw]

Updated Sagarin and NET rankings:




Increasingly unlikely, but 1 Valpo win and 2 Bradley losses perhaps could lead to Valpo's NET catching Bradley's (currently 25 spot gap) and putting the 3 seed in play for Valpo.
Also, 1 MSU win and 2 Indiana St losses perhaps could lead to MSU's NET catching Indiana State's (currently 20 spot gap) and putting the 7 seed in play for Indiana State.

[uniguy]

You have to think at this point there is some real clarity, especially if Valpo does not have JFL Saturday at ISUB...

UNI
Loyola
Bradley
SIU
Indiana State
Missouri State
Valpo
Drake
ISUR
Evansville

Seems to be shaking out that way. Maybe flip Indiana State and SIU depending on results tonight but it does not matter.

Maybe flip Valpo Missouri State but I have a really hard time seeing Valpo going on the road without their best player and winning.

Assuming Bradley wins tonight, I would think a win over Loyola could potentially put the 2-seed in play. They'd have to make up 9 spots in the NET with that win? Possible? No idea.

Either that or BU wins both, SIU wins both, and now you have a 3-way tie that I think BU would win because of their sweep of SIU.

All of that is moot if the Braves don't win tonight, though.

[ahunte1]

Assuming Bradley wins tonight, I would think a win over Loyola could potentially put the 2-seed in play. They'd have to make up 9 spots in the NET with that win? Possible? No idea.

Either that or BU wins both, SIU wins both, and now you have a 3-way tie that I think BU would win because of their sweep of SIU.

All of that is moot if the Braves don't win tonight, though.

That's what we are wondering about over on Ramblermania. How far could Bradley rise in the NET with two double-digit wins? Loyola didn't help themselves much with last night's win.

Also, MSU is the most likely team to get the 7th seed.. and most likely to get the 6. If that happens, does that mean Valpo doesn't get to play?

[mvfcfan]

Does anyone else think using NET as a tiebreaker (or at least the second tiebreaker) is stupid? I know in some leagues if there is a tie and both teams split the series, they will use the records against the 1 seed, 2 seed, etc until the tie is broken. NET really has nothing to do with how you did in conference play though since it includes all of your non-conference games.

[tdawgs87]

Does anyone else think using NET as a tiebreaker (or at least the second tiebreaker) is stupid? I know in some leagues if there is a tie and both teams split the series, they will use the records against the 1 seed, 2 seed, etc until the tie is broken. NET really has nothing to do with how you did in conference play though since it includes all of your non-conference games.

That is the way the Valley use to do it. I am not sure how long the Valley has been doing the seeding this way but I believe the reasoning was to get teams to play a better non-conference schedule. Certainly believe that SIU will be playing much better schedules in the future now that Mullins is the coach.

[Kyle@MOState]

Does anyone else think using NET as a tiebreaker (or at least the second tiebreaker) is stupid? I know in some leagues if there is a tie and both teams split the series, they will use the records against the 1 seed, 2 seed, etc until the tie is broken. NET really has nothing to do with how you did in conference play though since it includes all of your non-conference games.

That is the way the Valley use to do it. I am not sure how long the Valley has been doing the seeding this way but I believe the reasoning was to get teams to play a better non-conference schedule. Certainly believe that SIU will be playing much better schedules in the future now that Mullins is the coach.

Before the tie breakers switched to RPI/NET, it was based on your non-conference strength of schedule. Which I did like to some degree. It made sure that you didn't go out and schedule cupcakes. I think that when you couple the fact, that it had no bearing on how good you were with how hard it is to schedule now, NET is preferable. Plus NET kind of takes that in to account when it is all said and done.

[pafan]

That is the way the Valley use to do it. I am not sure how long the Valley has been doing the seeding this way but I believe the reasoning was to get teams to play a better non-conference schedule.

The MVC abandoned the points system a long time ago. Don't remember the exact year, but I'm guessing '09.