The road to 2 NCAA bids

[BCPanther]

UNI is in with one win this weekend.

One win makes Selection Sunday a very nervous time and probably means Dayton (which isn't all bad).

Two wins and UNI is a lock.

[ceaser150]

UNI is in with one win this weekend.

One win makes Selection Sunday a very nervous time and probably means Dayton (which isn't all bad).

Two wins and UNI is a lock.

I wish I had your confidence. Too many variables still in play. Bids can still be stolen by mediocre P5 schools or in conferences like the WCC, Mountain West, or AAC.

[stable genius]

UNI is in with one win this weekend.

One win makes Selection Sunday a very nervous time and probably means Dayton (which isn't all bad).

Two wins and UNI is a lock.

I'm hesitant to throw the L word out there, but this is how I'm seeing this too. NET is front and center in UNIs case for bid, and that beatdown of Drake changed everything.

[VUGrad1314]

Here is a list of numbers for your consideration. UNI compares very favorably to the last few teams in the field right now. Getting to the finals and losing closely would probably put them in a pretty good position especially if they can win the first two convincingly. Of course it's best for them to just lock up that auto bid and not worry about it and that is the outcome I am rooting for. Incidentally Lundardi has UNI as a 10 right now in a bracket that came out today. Another thing that works in UNI's favor is that they are in THE TOUGHEST CONFERENCE IN THE NATION TO WIN ON THE ROAD. Those road losses have to be accordingly mitigated. Nobody beat ISU at Hulman or Loyola at Gentile so why punish UNI for two very narrow losses to them. (Yes I know they have a total of three losses at home but that's just it TWO TEAMS have THREE HOME LOSSES COMBINED. That's INSANE no matter who you're playing. Here are the numbers:


According to this article the last 10 teams in are the following (NET SOR Strength of Record BPI KenPom and Sagarin Included UNI and other elite mids on the bubble will appear in this pool for comparison's sake to assess their at large chances.

Florida 33 42 26 33 32

Xavier 43 34 50 43 27

Texas Tech 23 50 21 23 36

Rutgers 34 41 35 32 44

Providence 44 53 52 46 29

Stanford 28 59 45 35 54

Texas 59 39 65 54 35

Cincinnati 53 57 48 44 40

Wichita State 45 31 40 41 34

NC State 55 54 49 53 47

St Mary's 31 35 37 36 38

UNI 37 40 55 39 65

Utah State 38 48 3642 43

E Tennessee St 41 26 51 66 52

Richmond 48 47 42 50 67

Lundardi adds Indiana Mississippi State and USC as teams on the bubble so I'll include their numbers Incidentally he has UNI as a 10 seed in the bracket that came out today:

Indiana 54 27 39 38 31

USC 39 36 61 52 53

Mississippi St 52 49 41 49 52

Looking at these numbers you have to like UNI's chances even if they don't win in St Louis. though most every other team has good resume building opportunities available to them so these numbers will change a lot. I think it's best if they just win in St Louis and not have to sweat out the committee but I'll see how I feel about that after each game as we have more data points entered in and the picture clears up a bit more (though it will still remain muddy but they might still have a chance yet especially if they can get to the finals and it's a close game to a good NET team (talking top 4 in the conference at minimum but preferably Loyola or Indiana State.)

[VUGrad1314]

UNI is in with one win this weekend.

One win makes Selection Sunday a very nervous time and probably means Dayton (which isn't all bad).

Two wins and UNI is a lock.

Even though I believe UNI might have a chance even without winning in St Louis I am really curious to see what makes you feel this confident with how unkind the selection process has been to mids. It feels like every year there's a high caliber mid that gets left out that really shouldn't have. Remember Loyola would not have made it without the Arch Madness Title in 2017-2018 and a 26 win Illinois State team was left at the altar in 2016-2017 and that was when the league still had Wichita State,

[BCPanther]

UNI is in with one win this weekend.

One win makes Selection Sunday a very nervous time and probably means Dayton (which isn't all bad).

Two wins and UNI is a lock.

Even though I believe UNI might have a chance even without winning in St Louis I am really curious to see what makes you feel this confident with how unkind the selection process has been to mids. It feels like every year there's a high caliber mid that gets left out that really shouldn't have. Remember Loyola would not have made it without the Arch Madness Title in 2017-2018 and a 26 win Illinois State team was left at the altar in 2016-2017 and that was when the league still had Wichita State,

Loyola had blow out losses at Boise State and Milwaukee and also lost a home game to 13-18 Indiana State. It sucks that Florida fell apart but that happens.

Illinois State lost to Wichita the first time by 40 and got run out of the gym in the Valley final on National TV.

UNI's worst loss is 6 points in a road conference game.

[VUGrad1314]

But their only non conference loss (West Virginia) is flagging and so is their best non-conference win (Colorado). Their resume doesn't look as good as it did two weeks ago to be quite honest.

[uniguy]

I do not agree. There is no universe where UNI doesn't win Arch Madness and is a lock.

If we win two, I'd say we are first four candidates and certainly still a bubble team....far from a lock. Win one and we are probably on the soft side of the bubble. Might get in but I doubt it. Lose the first game and we are probably a 3-seed in the NIT hosting North Dakota State (because thats what they do to mid-majors....not because that is what we deserve).

Remember that if we lose, our NET will probably fall into the 40s.

I'd just rather not have to have these discussions all week next week and go ahead and make it moot.

[VUGrad1314]

I agree. It would be so much easier if we had a second legitimate bubble candidate or heck even at least a second top 75 team. The fact that this conference does not generate Q1 opportunities at all within conference is a huge detriment to our leading teams. We need to get better as a conference and that's from UNI on down. Hopefully next year will bring us the results we need and I think we have a great chance to do that next year. The future in this league is incredibly bright but we need to from 1-10 make becoming a multi-bid conference a consistent priority. There's evidence that that is happening but we need to deliver.

[BCPanther]

West Virginia and Colorado are 21 and 22 in the NET, respectively. They aren't falling anywhere.