The road to 2 NCAA bids

[VUGrad1314]

West Virginia and Colorado are 21 and 22 in the NET, respectively. They aren't falling anywhere.

There's numbers and there's perception. Perception matters. And losses hurt your perception. If perception didn't matter Barry would have made the tournament with Missouri State Valpo probably wouldn't have been left out and St Mary's probably would have a few more tournament appearances than they do. But they all took one or more bad loss too late in the year and it was the death of their resume. As long as the committee is made up of fallible human beings perception is reality and perception is going to carry the day. Also when you're counting on these two teams (one win and one close loss) to buoy your resume (and you are) them sucking down the stretch is a bad look for you especially after that 0-2 Q2 road trip. A 2-0 there and we're not even having this discussion. UNI would be in regardless of what happens in St Louis. But we are and therefore every data point on the mid major resume will be scrutinized like it always is. You know the committee is going to try to find any reason to keep UNI out if they can.

[tdawgs87]

I agree. It would be so much easier if we had a second legitimate bubble candidate or heck even at least a second top 75 team. The fact that this conference does not generate Q1 opportunities at all within conference is a huge detriment to our leading teams. We need to get better as a conference and that's from UNI on down. Hopefully next year will bring us the results we need and I think we have a great chance to do that next year. The future in this league is incredibly bright but we need to from 1-10 make becoming a multi-bid conference a consistent priority. There's evidence that that is happening but we need to deliver.

I agree with this. But I also believe that from top to bottom the Valley has to schedule better. When SIU was getting at large berths they did it by trying not to schedule teams that had rpi''s lower than 150, and scheduling a good MTE. The problem for UNI this season isn't their non-conference schedule was bad it is losing to teams in the league that's NET scores are low because they played too many dogs in the non-conference season. SIU played the 303 ranked schedule in the country( Barry's parting gift to SIU). That is terrible for the league and worse yet we had a losing season when the Valley season started. We have to schedule as a league much better and smarter. The A10, WCC and the Mountain West have worked on it. Those leagues are going to get multiple berths this year. We can't be playing the dog conferences of college basketball MEAC, SWAC and even the OVC (other than Murray and Belmont) conferences . We are better off to lose games to higher ranked teams from top mid-major leagues than beat teams from dog conferences. Hopefully by scheduling better we will win games against better teams. I know that it is difficult to schedule we just need the Ad"S to work on scheduling and not let their coaches schedule just to pad their record. Hinson was the master at scheduling poorly and unfortunately the league and SIU suffered for it. I see the league getting better and am fully confident that SIU will help in that endeavor, and I also believe that Mullins will schedule better.

[All-MVC Fan]

No buy games. We need to be the ones buying teams to come in. We need to schedule crap teams at home we can beat by 10+. Boost up our NET's and then when we get to conference play we will all have good NET's. Tell me how that is any different than what the Big Ten is doing.

If we all do that then every conference game will be a Q1 or Q2 game. We don't even have to worry about the non-conf SOS.

Yes we do. That is such a transparent strategy the committee will see right through it and deny us any hope of an at large. (Frankly I think the MVC is still being punished for cracking the RPI Code in the mid 2000's and that's why our teams have trouble getting in and are underseeded now.) I guess the good part of the strategy you propose would be that we could file an anti-trust suit against the NCAA for being the A5's lackeys because it would force the selection committee to prove beyond any shadow of a doubt that they are just that (even though we as fans know it ourselves and have known for years).

The problem is that 90% of P5 teams begin the season as Q1 teams and 90% of mids start the season as Q3. Handicapped from the start. The system is totally rigged. Just wait till the NCAA starts talking about doing away with auto bids...

[VUGrad1314]

As a fan of a school from a small conference originally that made its living and its history on the auto bid I hope this doesn't happen but if it does it might actually be good for upper tier mids. Hear me out... It would force conference expansion among top mid major leagues as they take the best schools from the lower conferences (for example the Mountain West would add New Mexico State The CAA would look to add a program like Vermont The Mountain West would attempt to court the top of the WCC (not just Gonzaga) The AAC would look to add from the top of the A10 The SOCON would add Liberty (and possibly Belmont though Belmont could go to the MVC as well) and the MVC could look to add Murray State and (if they think it would help the conference) schools like NDSU SDSU NKU and Wright State and the lower tier schools that are just barely hanging on or who would have absolutely nothing to ever play for would drop out of D1 freeing up scheduling opportunities and increasing the quality of upper tier mid major conferences which would force the P5\BE (if they want to keep their advantage) to go down and try to get the best of the mids to join up further diluting their individual share of the money garnered from each bid and share their football money from their media deals with basketball schools. Since this would actually cost the P5 money and benefit mid majors I don't see it ever happening.

[VUGrad1314]

I agree. It would be so much easier if we had a second legitimate bubble candidate or heck even at least a second top 75 team. The fact that this conference does not generate Q1 opportunities at all within conference is a huge detriment to our leading teams. We need to get better as a conference and that's from UNI on down. Hopefully next year will bring us the results we need and I think we have a great chance to do that next year. The future in this league is incredibly bright but we need to from 1-10 make becoming a multi-bid conference a consistent priority. There's evidence that that is happening but we need to deliver.

I agree with this. But I also believe that from top to bottom the Valley has to schedule better. When SIU was getting at large berths they did it by trying not to schedule teams that had rpi''s lower than 150, and scheduling a good MTE. The problem for UNI this season isn't their non-conference schedule was bad it is losing to teams in the league that's NET scores are low because they played too many dogs in the non-conference season. SIU played the 303 ranked schedule in the country( Barry's parting gift to SIU). That is terrible for the league and worse yet we had a losing season when the Valley season started. We have to schedule as a league much better and smarter. The A10, WCC and the Mountain West have worked on it. Those leagues are going to get multiple berths this year. We can't be playing the dog conferences of college basketball MEAC, SWAC and even the OVC (other than Murray and Belmont) conferences . We are better off to lose games to higher ranked teams from top mid-major leagues than beat teams from dog conferences. Hopefully by scheduling better we will win games against better teams. I know that it is difficult to schedule we just need the Ad"S to work on scheduling and not let their coaches schedule just to pad their record. Hinson was the master at scheduling poorly and unfortunately the league and SIU suffered for it. I see the league getting better and am fully confident that SIU will help in that endeavor, and I also believe that Mullins will schedule better.

I hope that Valpo will likewise contribute but comments from our AD from last year or the year before don't fill me with a lot of hope. He seems to think the key to getting a good NET is to schedule bad teams and beat the crap out of them. But to me that only works if your conference schedule helps you out later and ours usually doesn't. We're not highly respected enough to use that strategy. If our AD's theory were true ISUb who had a lot of losses in the non-conference wouldn't have the third highest NET in the conference and Drake would have a much better NET than them and they didn't. In fact they were about 70 spots worse . There's no way the two teams' difference in conference record accounts for those 70 spots. Nonconference scheduling matters and it needs to be good and replete with quality teams.

[MVC Phil]

Remember last year Belmont lost in the OVC final and still received an at large bid. They went to Dayton for the first four but they made it.

Also anyone else see College Game Day this past weekend had a section on teams that should scare the High Seeds. I know UNI was featured as a team that would scare a High seed and if I recall correctly they said Baylor was the type of team that would have a hard time with UNI.

UNI has a little bit of past history that seems to help in these bubble times. I know they say it is not a factor but it happens.

So all of this plus UNI showing up as #10 or #11 in most big time bracketology's seem to paint a decent chance in my opinion for a 2nd bid if they lose in St. Louis.

This is the year of the Mid-Major I think there will be surprises around the bubble.

[tdawgs87]

I really think the Valley is trending up. Certainly believe SIU is trending up, key is the whole league seems to be trending up sans maybe Evansville and Illinois State . Not sure the situation at ISUR but the Valley needs them to improve hopefully Muller figures it out . Two years in a row playing Thursday is very unusual for them . Hope UNI gets an at large IF they lose at the MVC tournament.

[VUGrad1314]

I make no secret of it. I want UNI in the field however that can happen. If that's as the only bid fine If that's as an at large fine. But they are our best team by far and away and the Valley should always send its best. As a fan of the MVC I hope UNI makes it this year and that we have multiple at large caliber teams in future years!

[achrist70]

Someone posted this on Panther Nation last night, I know that the RPI wasn't perfect, but it is interesting to see the difference between the RPI and NET

Was looking at NET vs. good ol’ RPI today.

RPI
UNI 19
B1G teams ahead of UNI 1 (next closest is at 32)

NET
UNI 37
B1G teams ahead of UNI: 10

Weird, I wonder why they switched to NET?!?

[Red]

We've seen MVC schools get screwed before. I think if UNI gets to the title game, you're feeling pretty good. Anything less and it's high anxiety.