bleach wrote:People aren't dropping like flies and it is hardly a factor in anyone under 50.
That's not really the case. Let's start with the "not dropping like flies": Estimate are that, in China, over 25% of those infected by COVID-19 age 70 and up were fatalities.
For those age 20-60 who contracted COVID-19, 0.2% and 1% of those were fatalities. Yes, that's far better than the 10% and up fatality rate for those over age 60, but it's also far higher than the seasonal flu: seasonal flu in the US was fatal to about 0.014% of those 18-49 who contracted it during the 2016-17 flu season. That makes COVID-19 more than 10x as lethal as the flu for the age group for whom you described as "hardly a factor".
IMO the biggest reason we're probably seeing a broader response in the last few days is the example of Italy, generally regarded as a modern nation with a similar standard of living as the USA.
Italy had about 1000 cases of COVID-19 on February 29th, the same number the US had as of this morning. Italy now have 12,469 cases as of March 11, and the case load continues to grow rapidly.
The Italian medical system is now under
serious strain, with about 1000 patients under intensive care conditions, nearly all in the north of Italy. Right now Italy has a 6% overall fatality rate, but that will likely change rapidly as the outbreak continues.
The goal of closing down events like March Madness, slowing and ceasing travel, along with suspending many schools/universities/companies is to keep the health system operating well, and prevent future rationing of care.
Citations: A Swiss study of WHO COVID-19 data from China:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20031104v1And for 2016-17 flu:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html