Corona-Transfer Portal Insanity [CTPI}

[BEARZ77]

I'm not sure if it's the isolation, the absence of live sports , or the basic chaos inherent in 800 transfers , but in reading posts on various fan boards , I'm convinced many have developed a new form of insanity. I read posts celebrating the signing of average D-2 and juco players like they just got 4* commits. Part of that seems to come from the number of P-5 programs basically dumpster diving to fill rosters after having multiple players enter the transfer portal and needing bodies. Since they're offering to fill spots 10-13 , I think it gives a false sense of value , and so team fans are celebrating getting these guys for starting roles like significant recruiting scores. I'm sure some will work out, some might even be real bargains, but the amount of fanfare seems a little psychotic.

I can be as guilty as anyone with false optimism about recruits, but generally mine is reserved for HS kids with perceived "potential" or over valuing a juco with good stats. But right now rampant enthusiasm for players averaging 6 -10 pts and sometimes less from lower levels making teams immediate contenders seems to be entering pandemic proportions. But maybe it's all part of the "new normal".

[tribecalledquest]

I'm not sure if it's the isolation, the absence of live sports , or the basic chaos inherent in 800 transfers , but in reading posts on various fan boards , I'm convinced many have developed a new form of insanity. I read posts celebrating the signing of average D-2 and juco players like they just got 4* commits. Part of that seems to come from the number of P-5 programs basically dumpster diving to fill rosters after having multiple players enter the transfer portal and needing bodies. Since they're offering to fill spots 10-13 , I think it gives a false sense of value , and so team fans are celebrating getting these guys for starting roles like significant recruiting scores. I'm sure some will work out, some might even be real bargains, but the amount of fanfare seems a little psychotic.

I can be as guilty as anyone with false optimism about recruits, but generally mine is reserved for HS kids with perceived "potential" or over valuing a juco with good stats. But right now rampant enthusiasm for players averaging 6 -10 pts and sometimes less from lower levels making teams immediate contenders seems to be entering pandemic proportions. But maybe it's all part of the "new normal".

Absolutely. Not every player is going to be a stud. Late spring guys are often times roster fillets and role players. There is nothing wrong with that but let’s stop acting like every commitment is a “huge get”. Or a “steal”.

[BEARZ77]

For me an example would be Nik Tata. Now I'm glad we got Tata because we needed bench depth with size behind Prim, and I hope he out performs my expectations, which for me is giving us about 10-12 minutes of reasonably competitive play off the bench. Now I could try to make him out like something more, I mean he's 6'10 with a large frame, he's the 63rd ranked juco, and he shot almost 74% from the field last year against decent juco competition. But if he's gonna be a major factor for us, then either something bad has happened or he plays way beyond his history. Now injuries can happen, Prim has some chronic leg issues that limited him some last year, and big guys foul a lot, so Tata was an important get. But he averaged 8 ppg and 6 rbs as a starter. I certainly wouldn't expect him to exceed those numbers even if he was forced into the lineup under some circumstances, and reasonable assumptions would say even if used extensively he probably wouldn't match those. That's just being realistic. Sometimes guys outperform their history or mature late, or find a team that their skills fill a nitch etc etc. But usually they are who they are.

Saw a report the other day detailing how most guys who were high performers at lower level d-1 programs and jumped up to significantly higher competition, mostly assumed complementary roles or less in their new setting with significantly lesser stats. A friend on the Bear nation board who's a stat guy by profession has developed a system whereby he takes juco stats and plugs them into a formula to predict how they might perform at the D-1 level , and it's been pretty accurate a lot of times and mostly it assumes lesser stats and performance especially in that first year. A guy like Prim who was a top 2 juco and averaged 20 and 10 and shot over 60% , has a good 1st year at MSU but goes for 13 and 5 and shoots 47%. That's just how it tends to work. About the only guy we've had that matched his juco levels was Alize Johnson, but he was one of those late bloomers who kept growing from 6'4 as a HS senior to 6'9 as a college senior and was able to keep a lot of his agility and handling skills he had when smaller. Now , there's always outliers and I'm sure everyone can name several they've seen, but the point is , they're outliers; you don't make a living believing they are routinely gonna match or exceed previous performance,and most likely they will perform somewhere below that. But hey that's part of recruiting optimism, and we're all guilty at some level.

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

I'm not sure if it's the isolation, the absence of live sports , or the basic chaos inherent in 800 transfers , but in reading posts on various fan boards , I'm convinced many have developed a new form of insanity. I read posts celebrating the signing of average D-2 and juco players like they just got 4* commits. Part of that seems to come from the number of P-5 programs basically dumpster diving to fill rosters after having multiple players enter the transfer portal and needing bodies. Since they're offering to fill spots 10-13 , I think it gives a false sense of value , and so team fans are celebrating getting these guys for starting roles like significant recruiting scores. I'm sure some will work out, some might even be real bargains, but the amount of fanfare seems a little psychotic.

I can be as guilty as anyone with false optimism about recruits, but generally mine is reserved for HS kids with perceived "potential" or over valuing a juco with good stats. But right now rampant enthusiasm for players averaging 6 -10 pts and sometimes less from lower levels making teams immediate contenders seems to be entering pandemic proportions. But maybe it's all part of the "new normal".

Absolutely. Not every player is going to be a stud. Late spring guys are often times roster fillets and role players. There is nothing wrong with that but let’s stop acting like every commitment is a “huge get”. Or a “steal”.

go to the ISUr board. they think our crap spring signings are the second coming. 2 backup centers...still no starter. But, well be dancing the next two years apparently. They really do drink their own kool-aid over there. they havent learned dan isnt the way to go---STILL!!!!!! We could have had Yak on the cheap.

[BEARZ77]

It's not that a lot of these guys don't have value or can't fill roles, and like I said, some may even out perform their history on a bigger stage. It's more the over zealous selling of their level as a recruit I find interesting. And while I was having some fun with the title and some of what I said was tongue in cheek, I do think there is an interesting dynamic this spring that is a combination of the mass numbers of transfers and the overwhelming dire circumstances of the environment. Tradition had most of your significant recruiting done in the fall and you looked for the opportunity to fill a need with a juco or a late signing HS player in the spring/summer. Occasionally you had late circumstances that involved a transfer . But now teams get blind sided by often unexpected player movement of not only large numbers, but also key players in the spring and it sets up a feeding frenzy to try to regroup and fill holes. Players that really had never been considered high level recruits become hot commodities simply because teams need bodies and there are now a whole lot more teams in the mix for them. Not often are teams at mid and low major conferences recruiting the same players as the P-5 schools, you certainly rarely see it at the HS level . Then add how the circumstances surrounding the virus has teams having to recruit guys they may never have seen live or had much live interaction with in game settings and it just makes for a curious circus.

I follow a lot of boards and what you see is what tribe and jsnhbe have described where half a fan base is going ga-ga because of a signing and the other half is saying wtf. It's just such an interesting dynamic to observe . It really funny to see p-5 boards have to first get their head around some of the guys popping up on their prospect list, then react to being beat out by mid and low major teams. But my point is that p-5 interest is more a product of circumstance that makes for extreme variance.

[tribecalledquest]

Granted the recruiting landscape has changed with more and more transfers and this spring is really weird. But if you are trying to build the program and you are trying to fill 4-5 rides late in the spring that’s going to be a tough way to go.

Bradley signed two in the spring. One who is legit because he put up good numbers as a freshman in the A10. Hard to argue that. But the other is a skinny 6-7 developmental guy. No one in the coaching staff is expecting anything out of Jayson Kent next season.

[hot nuts]

go to the ISUr board. they think our crap spring signings are the second coming. 2 backup centers...still no starter. But, well be dancing the next two years apparently. They really do drink their own kool-aid over there. they havent learned dan isnt the way to go---STILL!!!!!! We could have had Yak on the cheap.

I went there and can't find a single reference to making the tourney the next two years. I see a lot of people welcoming the new recruits but not any Christ-like references. Are you sure your are a Redbird fan? Perhaps a Bradley fan trying to project a slanted impression upon the fine Redbird faithful.

[BEARZ77]

Granted the recruiting landscape has changed with more and more transfers and this spring is really weird. But if you are trying to build the program and you are trying to fill 4-5 rides late in the spring that’s going to be a tough way to go.

Bradley signed two in the spring. One who is legit because he put up good numbers as a freshman in the A10. Hard to argue that. But the other is a skinny 6-7 developmental guy. No one in the coaching staff is expecting anything out of Jayson Kent next season.

I agree filling 4+ positions in the spring is a tough ride; the problem is there is no predicting it very easily. I think it was Rhode Island[ i may have the wrong team] who had most of their team returning and was going to be really solid and then had 4 starters go in the transfer portal this spring.

I thought the Bears were extremely fortunate to get 7 signed this spring. Jucos aren't unusual , although 3 was a bit out of the norm, but to get 3 HS kids[ actually prep] and expecting a lot is really a reach. Some was by plan, but with a death of a fall recruit and then 3 transfer portal kids it left a big hole to fill. WE got 7 and still have an open scholy [ probably will sit on it as we have only one senior and his is already filled with a 2021 kid] I think we were fortunate as the 3 jucos are all top 65 , and at least one of the prep kids[ who actually gave verbal around 1st of yr] is pretty high level.

[Saluki1990]

Tribe also downplays every recruit teams have on mvc fans but secretly goes to pjstarfanforum and praises them. So you have to take everything he says with a grain of salt.

[tribecalledquest]

Tribe also downplays every recruit teams have on mvc fans but secretly goes to pjstarfanforum and praises them. So you have to take everything he says with a grain of salt.

Again. Obsess much?

I didn't "praise" anyone. Relax.