2021 Arch Madness Seeding Projections

[Birdfan2018]

Interesting that for the two teams with hot starts, in those projections Drake is getting lots of love, SIU not so much, yet SIU has the better wins.

They have the better WIN. Not plural they beat Butler, but Butler is 1-3, so no idea how good they are. Butler's only victory is a four point decision over one win Western Michigan. Salukis have not beat a team with a winning record, just like Drake.

If I remember correctly, Butler also played without their best player. I haven’t seen any Valley team with what I would consider an impressive win.

[Saluki1990]

That butler team beat a good providence team by 10 so that butler team is a good team. It’s not like we beat Chicago state

[usmcsaluki]

Interesting that for the two teams with hot starts, in those projections Drake is getting lots of love, SIU not so much, yet SIU has the better wins.

They have the better WIN. Not plural they beat Butler, but Butler is 1-3, so no idea how good they are. Butler's only victory is a four point decision over one win Western Michigan. Salukis have not beat a team with a winning record, just like Drake.

If I remember correctly, Butler also played without their best player. I haven’t seen any Valley team with what I would consider an impressive win.

On that logic, SIU played without probably their best post player in JD Muila who I believe was projected to start.

[usmcsaluki]

That butler team beat a good providence team by 10 so that butler team is a good team. It’s not like we beat Chicago state

And that Butler team was "without their best player", so that should only amplify their win against Providence.

[Hacksaw]

Still pretty early in the season, but plenty of shifting has already occurred. Some of the teams have reached the 1/3 mark, others finally played their first games:

[Hacksaw]

February 3 Update: 54% of the conference games completed.



Arch Madness seed odds based on conference wins:


Thursday odds by team and conference wins:


Team by team seeding odds by win count (10k simulations):

[bleach]

:Love the charts but curious how the Trees come out ahead of the Bears in projections with the Bears having beat the Trees twice. What factor allows for that?

[Hacksaw]

:Love the charts but curious how the Trees come out ahead of the Bears in projections with the Bears having beat the Trees twice. What factor allows for that?

It's really close (3.68 average rank vs 3.75 average rank) so it's pretty much a toss-up between 3 and 4. Regardless, the answer is due to the fact that Indiana State has played two additional games (and has two additional wins). As the best possible seed is generally capped at 3 for either team, Missouri State has a longer tail of possibilities on right side of the chart due to having more undecided outcomes. This is what is pulling down their average seed.

Digging a little bit further, it looks like the Bears actually are seeded better (above) the Trees in roughly 52% of the simulations, which further proves its the downside seeds which is lowering their average seed. The rough math on that breakdown is:
31% of the time = Bears have more wins than the Trees outright
19% of the time = two-way tie, which the Bears win via H2H
2% of the time = three-way tie or more which the Bears come out ahead of the Trees at about 98%
48% of the time = Trees have more wins than the Bears

[bleach]

Makes sense. Thanks.
With the Aces, Salukis, Braves, and Redbirds remaining, it should just be a matter of taking care of business for the Bears to secure the 3. The last 2 series with Loyola and Drake have definitely taken away their swagger but might have given them more drive.
Have the Trees played Loyola?

[BEARZ77]

I see the Bears settling in more around 5-6 , just too many holes still once you get past 3-4 players. They'll have some road losses and haven't shown the ability to hold home court yet either. Prim, Mosley, Sharp are really good, a couple others are up and down, and then there are major holes at power forward and the need for another outside shooter.