REPORT: Murray to the Valley?

[Kyle_Saluki_17]

How in the world would UMass have any interest in the MVC, given the fact they would receive far less television money and would have increased travel expenses? That makes zero sense for them to move from the A-10.

I don't get it either but there must be a reason in there somewhere. Northeastern was the original contact and UMass got involved later. Hell, if it's a possibility, take both of them.

It's just simply the wild, wild west in realignment right now.

UMASS Football is FBS. Granted, they're an awful FBS football program and got pounded by SIU a few years back. But I can't see this being a fit. I assume if this were to happen, they would just stay as an FBS Independent and join the MVC for other sports?

[BCPanther]

How in the world would UMass have any interest in the MVC, given the fact they would receive far less television money and would have increased travel expenses? That makes zero sense for them to move from the A-10.

I don't get it either but there must be a reason in there somewhere. Northeastern was the original contact and UMass got involved later. Hell, if it's a possibility, take both of them.

It's just simply the wild, wild west in realignment right now.

UMASS Football is FBS. Granted, they're an awful FBS football program and got pounded by SIU a few years back. But I can't see this being a fit. I assume if this were to happen, they would just stay as an FBS Independent and join the MVC for other sports?

I would assume so. I could also see them dropping to FCS and playing in the CAA, who's going to be desperate for relevance if/when James Madison leaves.

[Kyle_Saluki_17]

The OVC and Southland Conference have announced a scheduling alliance for FCS Football. I guess this is to stabilize the OVC situation. I wonder where that fits in the grand scheme of things going on with Murray.

[VUGrad1314]

I don't think this has an effect one way or the other. From what I read in an article about it this is to provide stability for both conference in non-conference scheduling which they're both going to need given their recent membership losses. This is not like the ASUN-WAC arrangement where both conferences have pooled their teams together to vie for an auto bid. This is perhaps a sign of confidence from both leagues that despite the rumors (SELA and McNeese State leaving the Southland and Murray State or possibly Tennessee State leaving the OVC) none of that is actually going to come to fruition and both conferences will hang on to their respective autobids. This would seem to indicate one of two things:

1. Murray State is going to be allowed to park its football program in the OVC even if they leave

2. The OVC has held firm leveraging football since Murray State has no other option at this time and Murray State is not coming.

I think option 2 is more likely.

Though I suppose it is possible that both the Southland and OVC will continue to expand and bolster their football ranks but without much smoke on that it's hard to say anything definite. Moreover, and this is a total shot in the dark guess on my part, maybe the Big South would take them given that they will lose North Alabama and Kennesaw State after this year as they begin ASUN play. They would only be at 7 members and perhaps would like an eighth to make things a bit easier for scheduling purposes? The geography isn't a terrific fit for Murray or for the conference though which makes it feel a bit unlikely.

The longer we wait the more I think Murray is stuck and football might be the biggest reason why.


Also can we quit it with the speculation about adding far flung markets for teams that won't be good fits for the conference? UMass sucks and Northeastern is okay (or at least had some okay seasons recently) but WAY too far away. How much pull do either of these have in the Boston media market anyway? I really hope we can stop with the market BS because at our level it really doesn't matter that much. At this time Murray is really the only public school add that truly makes sense from a standpoint where we actually grow our league.

[VUGrad1314]

I just had a thought: If I understand how exit fees work for conferences like the OVC if you give a full two years' notice of departure you get out with no fee right? So how about this? Murray State announces their intention to leave the OVC in July 2024 thereby giving both the OVC and Murray State two years to figure out their football situation. By then Murray should be able to find an affiliation somewhere if not the MVFC outright and the OVC should have time to find new members so that their autobid isn't threatened while Murray gets out without paying a dime and the MVC has time to integrate Belmont before welcoming in the Racers. This also unwinds any scheduling issues that BCPanther alluded to earlier. Or.. There's always this potential solution:

Let's assume Western Illinois is willing to go to the OVC and Northern Colorado is willing to go to the Summit League. Those moves get announced which means:

WIU leaves the MVFC for the OVC leaving the MVFC at 10 members

The Summit League and MVFC schools essentially just trade one desired target for another. The Summit League schools get Northern Colorado the MVFC schools get Murray State. The MVFC stands at 12 and everyone's happy.

If WIU won't leave then perhaps the conference could add Robert Morris to go to 14 along with the other two but if Murray State's football isn't good enough for the MVFC then Robert Morris's sure as heck isn't going to be so that's probably a non-starter.

The concern here I guess would be that the MVFC would then have the power to split off from the Summit League schools but I can't see that being an option either side would pursue given the success of the partnership.

I have read that when North Dakota was admitted to the MVFC there may have been some sort of a quid pro quo agreement that the Dakota schools would not block the admission of a team like Murray State into the MVFC. That doesn't appear to actually be the case though because I would have thought it would be done by now if the agreement actually was in place.

Unless of course the cause of the wrangling isn't football but the same academic and market crap we've heard about over and over again that doesn't hold water.

And before anyone tells me that markets do matter allow me to present the case of the Horizon League Valpo's former league. That league boasts a presence in the following markets (with rankings provided)

#3 Chicago (UIC)

#14 Detroit (UDM Oakland)

#19 Cleveland (Cleveland State)

#24 Pittsburgh (Robert Morris)

#25 Indianapolis (IUPUI)

#35 Milwaukee (Milwaukee)

#37 Cincinnati (NKU)

#63 Dayton (Wright State)

#67 Green Bay (Green Bay)

#110 Fort Wayne (Fort Wayne)

#115 Youngstown (Youngstown State)

If you're scoring at home that's 3 top 20 markets 5 top 25 markets 7 top 40 markets 9 top 70 markets and every market is within the top 115.

How's their media deal? Are their games in high demand? The answer is no. As we saw in the D1360 video Milwaukee and UIC get outdrawn by Belmont who has no discernible online fanbase which is a complaint and criticism I have heard about adding them in the past. Moreover, the league couldn't even make a neutral site tournament in Detroit work despite having not one but two programs in or near the host city one of which was in a decent stretch at the time. At the mid major level Markets do not matter nearly as much as performance. If you do not control the market (and none of these schools do) you may as well not be in it because it is of no benefit to you or your league unless you're really good on top of that and even then the benefit isn't as great as adding a team like Muray State who DOES own their market (small though it may be) whether they're good or bad. This is what we need to be looking at when assessing new members:

1. Performance

2. Fan Support

3. Academics (This shouldn't be a disqualifier for any potential member as long as your school isn't totally embarrassing in the rankings which Murray State isn't or a diploma mill\for profit)









4. Market


In addition most of the schools mentioned in that video are facing steeper declines in enrollment than Murray State is despite being in better markets and having lofty academic designations. These things aren't helping the institutions themselves attract students so what makes anyone think that associating with them will help our schools attract students? It's just not logical and wouldn't produce more than a handful of additional students for a few lucky institutions. That is hardly worth adding a member that can possibly tank your athletic performance metrics over.

[mvfcfan]

Vugrad makes the most sense of anyone on this board. Glad to see that I'm not the only one that think the "Horizon League model" is a poor road map to follow.

Personally I don't think Murray State is coming anymore. I don't think the MVC wants them for whatever reason. If the MVC wanted them they would've been added 4 years ago in my view.

Murray State also has it made in a way, for now at least. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to make the NCAA Tournament at least every other year. Belmont and Austin Peay are both gone, and the OVC Tourney is literally in their back yard in Evansville, along with usually getting that double bye. Unfortunately their seed would be poor most of the time (13 or lower), but at least they'd still be making it.

[RacerJoeD]

The current OVC (before they add D1 transition teams or Chicago State or some other 330+ ranked team) won’t sniff a 13. Murray could have two or three top 100 wins and still be staring down a 14 seed or worse year in and year out. Assuming any top 100 team would ever schedule them, after all there is nothing to gain. So if you’re talking 14/15 seeds let’s talk about what that means for chances to advance in the tournament, which is where the majority of NCAA money comes from. You guys aware of the chances of advancing by seed? Here you go.

https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national- ... ship-odds/

The chances of getting to the second round as a 15 seed are one third as good as the chances of a 12 seed to make the Sweet 16.

That isn’t “having it made” that is slow death due to apathy.

[BCPanther]

The current OVC (before they add D1 transition teams or Chicago State or some other 330+ ranked team) won’t sniff a 13. Murray could have two or three top 100 wins and still be staring down a 14 seed or worse year in and year out. Assuming any top 100 team would ever schedule them, after all there is nothing to gain. So if you’re talking 14/15 seeds let’s talk about what that means for chances to advance in the tournament, which is where the majority of NCAA money comes from. You guys aware of the chances of advancing by seed? Here you go.

https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national- ... ship-odds/

The chances of getting to the second round as a 15 seed are one third as good as the chances of a 12 seed to make the Sweet 16.

That isn’t “having it made” that is slow death due to apathy.

You'll have to forgive him, he's an Indiana State football fan. He has no earthly idea what playoffs or a tournament look like.

[squirrel]

I just had a thought: If I understand how exit fees work for conferences like the OVC if you give a full two years' notice of departure you get out with no fee right? So how about this? Murray State announces their intention to leave the OVC in July 2024 thereby giving both the OVC and Murray State two years to figure out their football situation. By then Murray should be able to find an affiliation somewhere if not the MVFC outright and the OVC should have time to find new members so that their autobid isn't threatened while Murray gets out without paying a dime and the MVC has time to integrate Belmont before welcoming in the Racers. This also unwinds any scheduling issues that BCPanther alluded to earlier. Or.. There's always this potential solution:

Let's assume Western Illinois is willing to go to the OVC and Northern Colorado is willing to go to the Summit League. Those moves get announced which means:

WIU leaves the MVFC for the OVC leaving the MVFC at 10 members

The Summit League and MVFC schools essentially just trade one desired target for another. The Summit League schools get Northern Colorado the MVFC schools get Murray State. The MVFC stands at 12 and everyone's happy.

If WIU won't leave then perhaps the conference could add Robert Morris to go to 14 along with the other two but if Murray State's football isn't good enough for the MVFC then Robert Morris's sure as heck isn't going to be so that's probably a non-starter.

The concern here I guess would be that the MVFC would then have the power to split off from the Summit League schools but I can't see that being an option either side would pursue given the success of the partnership.

I have read that when North Dakota was admitted to the MVFC there may have been some sort of a quid pro quo agreement that the Dakota schools would not block the admission of a team like Murray State into the MVFC. That doesn't appear to actually be the case though because I would have thought it would be done by now if the agreement actually was in place.

Unless of course the cause of the wrangling isn't football but the same academic and market crap we've heard about over and over again that doesn't hold water.

And before anyone tells me that markets do matter allow me to present the case of the Horizon League Valpo's former league. That league boasts a presence in the following markets (with rankings provided)

#3 Chicago (UIC)
#14 Detroit (UDM Oakland)
#19 Cleveland (Cleveland State)
#24 Pittsburgh (Robert Morris)
#25 Indianapolis (IUPUI)
#35 Milwaukee (Milwaukee)
#37 Cincinnati (NKU)
#63 Dayton (Wright State)
#67 Green Bay (Green Bay)
#110 Fort Wayne (Fort Wayne)
#115 Youngstown (Youngstown State)

If you're scoring at home that's 3 top 20 markets 5 top 25 markets 7 top 40 markets 9 top 70 markets and every market is within the top 115.

How's their media deal? Are their games in high demand? The answer is no. As we saw in the D1360 video Milwaukee and UIC get outdrawn by Belmont who has no discernible online fanbase which is a complaint and criticism I have heard about adding them in the past. Moreover, the league couldn't even make a neutral site tournament in Detroit work despite having not one but two programs in or near the host city one of which was in a decent stretch at the time. At the mid major level Markets do not matter nearly as much as performance. If you do not control the market (and none of these schools do) you may as well not be in it because it is of no benefit to you or your league unless you're really good on top of that and even then the benefit isn't as great as adding a team like Muray State who DOES own their market (small though it may be) whether they're good or bad. This is what we need to be looking at when assessing new members:

1. Performance

2. Fan Support

3. Academics (This shouldn't be a disqualifier for any potential member as long as your school isn't totally embarrassing in the rankings which Murray State isn't or a diploma mill\for profit)

4. Market

In addition most of the schools mentioned in that video are facing steeper declines in enrollment than Murray State is despite being in better markets and having lofty academic designations. These things aren't helping the institutions themselves attract students so what makes anyone think that associating with them will help our schools attract students? It's just not logical and wouldn't produce more than a handful of additional students for a few lucky institutions. That is hardly worth adding a member that can possibly tank your athletic performance metrics over.

A couple things:

There is a HUGE difference between established leagues and trying to build a league. The Horizon League isn't really a model. . .sure, it was maybe 30 years ago when they started bleeding major schools like Marquette, Xavier, Dayton, La Salle, SLU, Notre Dame and Duquesne. But in subsequent years, they have really just been taking the best realistic adds available.

In that 30 year period, I doubt the Horizon League ever consistently finished as a top 15 league.

The Missouri Valley has probably only been outside the top 10 in only a handful of instances at most.

I don't think there is an equivalency in moving a big market team in League A and League B in this scenario.

People were skeptical of Loyola, but by all accounts, its been a home run add for the Missouri Valley. And we're getting a better TV package in part because of it. And we're going to get an even better TV package with Belmont.

That is going to happen not strictly because those 2 two schools are in big markets. It's also happening because the Missouri Valley is recognized as one of the 10 best basketball leagues in the country, with a footprint that includes those markets.

[squirrel]

The current OVC (before they add D1 transition teams or Chicago State or some other 330+ ranked team) won’t sniff a 13. Murray could have two or three top 100 wins and still be staring down a 14 seed or worse year in and year out. Assuming any top 100 team would ever schedule them, after all there is nothing to gain. So if you’re talking 14/15 seeds let’s talk about what that means for chances to advance in the tournament, which is where the majority of NCAA money comes from. You guys aware of the chances of advancing by seed? Here you go.

https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national- ... ship-odds/

The chances of getting to the second round as a 15 seed are one third as good as the chances of a 12 seed to make the Sweet 16.

That isn’t “having it made” that is slow death due to apathy.

You are probably right in terms of seed, but there is always the opportunity that exists in the void (assuming Murray leaves). Morehead State advanced as a 13 seed in 2011. And they have the most dominant record in the absence of the vacating schools:

(NCAA bids)
8 Morehead St
2 EIU, Tennessee St, Tenn Tech
1 SEMO
0 UT Martin, SIUE

So there is a tremendous opportunity for 1-2 schools to emerge and build their basketball profile nationally.

That probably won't change the seeding situation as outlined, but it will be interesting to see what these schools can do in the near term on the hardwood.