REPORT: Murray to the Valley?

[RacerJoeD]

If Murray leaves, no winner of the OVC will sniff a 13 seed. With Murray, a 14 is possible. Without Murray, the winner of the OVC will probably 15 at best and will more often than not end up lower than that. Honestly I wouldn’t be shocked that once Murray leaves, you see the remaining members of the OVC cut their budgets.

Make no mistake though, you’re point is valid. Some team will have to win it. Just like the SWAC, MEAC, and the NEC. That is no promise of being a national brand.

[mvfcfan]

The current OVC (before they add D1 transition teams or Chicago State or some other 330+ ranked team) won’t sniff a 13. Murray could have two or three top 100 wins and still be staring down a 14 seed or worse year in and year out. Assuming any top 100 team would ever schedule them, after all there is nothing to gain. So if you’re talking 14/15 seeds let’s talk about what that means for chances to advance in the tournament, which is where the majority of NCAA money comes from. You guys aware of the chances of advancing by seed? Here you go.

https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national- ... ship-odds/

The chances of getting to the second round as a 15 seed are one third as good as the chances of a 12 seed to make the Sweet 16.

That isn’t “having it made” that is slow death due to apathy.

You'll have to forgive him, he's an Indiana State football fan. He has no earthly idea what playoffs or a tournament look like.

Do you really feel the need to comment on every single post I ever make? I find most of your posts to be pretty far out there, but I just ignore them. Feel free to ignore mine too, like a mature adult.

[Mikovio]

I expect Drake be the favorite this year but ESPN and CBS game selection tally is 12 games for Loyola and 8 games for Drake. If we had a second Loyola we could probably negotiate a bigger TV contract and more $$$. The contract will be renegotiated in a couple years and what teams and markets we have do matter. I'm guessing the Valley office probably has an idea of what ESPN is looking for and that explains their recent inquiries.

The conference gets about 65% of its $10+ million annual revenue from NCAA payouts and the rest from Arch Madness and deals with ESPN and Learfield. A team that can add to our NCAA payouts is great. A team that can add to our TV deal is great. Best is a team that can do both. The ceiling is higher for teams in larger markets. Loyola was an afterthought in Chicago when they were in the Horizon too but the Valley gave them a big leg up. Now they're a brand CBS wants to televise. And though this is a much larger scale Rutgers didn't exactly own NYC but their add was important enough to the Big Ten Network. So it's a fallacy to say you have to own your market for that market to matter.

[BCPanther]

I expect Drake be the favorite this year but ESPN and CBS game selection tally is 12 games for Loyola and 8 games for Drake. If we had a second Loyola we could probably negotiate a bigger TV contract and more $$$. The contract will be renegotiated in a couple years and what teams and markets we have do matter. I'm guessing the Valley office probably has an idea of what ESPN is looking for and that explains their recent inquiries.

The conference gets about 65% of its $10+ million annual revenue from NCAA payouts and the rest from Arch Madness and deals with ESPN and Learfield. A team that can add to our NCAA payouts is great. A team that can add to our TV deal is great. Best is a team that can do both. The ceiling is higher for teams in larger markets. Loyola was an afterthought in Chicago when they were in the Horizon too but the Valley gave them a big leg up. Now they're a brand CBS wants to televise. And though this is a much larger scale Rutgers didn't exactly own NYC but their add was important enough to the Big Ten Network. So it's a fallacy to say you have to own your market for that market to matter.

This year is a huge year for Tournament payouts (2015-2021 Tournaments)--
Loyola-8 units
Wichita-4 units
UNI-4 Units
Drake-2 Units
Bradley-1 Unit

Each unit is worth ~$300k so that's $5.7M this year for the league. I didn't count 2020 at all because I have no idea how they're handling that one since there was no tournament. If we can keep getting multiple bids and winning a game or two every year with a 2nd weekend run mixed in here and there that number is only going to grow going forward.

[Mikovio]

I expect Drake be the favorite this year but ESPN and CBS game selection tally is 12 games for Loyola and 8 games for Drake. If we had a second Loyola we could probably negotiate a bigger TV contract and more $$$. The contract will be renegotiated in a couple years and what teams and markets we have do matter. I'm guessing the Valley office probably has an idea of what ESPN is looking for and that explains their recent inquiries.

The conference gets about 65% of its $10+ million annual revenue from NCAA payouts and the rest from Arch Madness and deals with ESPN and Learfield. A team that can add to our NCAA payouts is great. A team that can add to our TV deal is great. Best is a team that can do both. The ceiling is higher for teams in larger markets. Loyola was an afterthought in Chicago when they were in the Horizon too but the Valley gave them a big leg up. Now they're a brand CBS wants to televise. And though this is a much larger scale Rutgers didn't exactly own NYC but their add was important enough to the Big Ten Network. So it's a fallacy to say you have to own your market for that market to matter.

This year is a huge year for Tournament payouts (2015-2021 Tournaments)--
Loyola-8 units
Wichita-4 units
UNI-4 Units
Drake-2 Units
Bradley-1 Unit

Each unit is worth ~$300k so that's $5.7M this year for the league. I didn't count 2020 at all because I have no idea how they're handling that one since there was no tournament. If we can keep getting multiple bids and winning a game or two every year with a 2nd weekend run mixed in here and there that number is only going to grow going forward.

Very true. And tournament payouts are the biggest share of revenue for the conference (and its members). That's why I think Murray State should be added. It would be ideal if they were in Louisville but they are poised to more than pull their weight.

[VUGrad1314]

I still am very leery of adding a market school just to add a market. Taking the risk on Loyola worked out beautifully and Belmont is a great add for a host of reasons but that doesn't mean that any market school we add is inherently going to add to our media deal. I'm very skeptical of that. Sure, getting our product in front of viewers in places like Cincinnati or Milwaukee or Dallas or Boston (as much as I shudder at the travel expenses of the latter two) is great but not if the team in that market doesn't perform. It has to be a market where people are interested first and foremost which makes NKU probably the best fit. I do not believe that simply moving a school like Milwaukee to the MVC would be enough to revitalize that program and we shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking that every risk we take on a market team is going to be a Loyola. What happened with Loyola is an exceptional best case scenario and should not be treated as the norm. I suppose it's possible we could strike gold again but I still think we should be going in a performance based direction. Northern Kentucky would be okay I guess but I thought I read somewhere that they significantly lowered their admissions standards (like not requiring test scores for instance. If that's true then rejecting Murray State on academic grounds makes even less sense and is a slap in the face. Really unless this is about factors that have nothing to do with athletic performance Murray State checks every box.

They have shown an ability to win in March generating tournament revenue

Their fans travel and will pack Arch Madness especially since they are close generating more revenue for the conference

Their presence near many MVC institutions as well as their performance allows fertile ground not only for quality games but also rivalries that will boost the media deal. The holdup has to either be market football or academics which are silly reasons not to grow the profile and revenue potential of your league with a property that can do it in spite of its limitations. They are more than equipped to overcome their shortcomings and more than justify their inclusion in the MVC. I think this is truer for them than for any other realistic option for the MVC.

For more proof that taking a market based approach doesn't work look at Conference USA: They added a bunch of market schools that didn't work out because they didn't perform and fans weren't interested and now they're at risk of being picked apart by other conferences including the Sun Belt which they once raided when they were in a stronger position. The Sun Belt went for performance and potential with adds like Georgia Southern and Appalachian State and it worked out beautifully. I would argue they are now in a superior position to Conference USA. Markets are great but they aren't the be all end all and shouldn't be the main criterion for membership. Performance matters and that is what should be driving the bus here.

[squirrel]

Each unit is worth ~$300k so that's $5.7M this year for the league. I didn't count 2020 at all because I have no idea how they're handling that one since there was no tournament. If we can keep getting multiple bids and winning a game or two every year with a 2nd weekend run mixed in here and there that number is only going to grow going forward.

I could be wrong, but I believe the NCAA is paying out a little under a third of the expected amount for 2020, and that each league's champion/top league seed/auto qualifier (for concluded tourneys) were credited. with just the single share per league.

[VUGrad1314]

Some (seemingly) VERY positive smoke for those of us who are pro Murray to the MVC. This seems like a move made with an invite forthcoming. I think Father Harry is being coy while the final details are being sorted out. The fact that this is the exact same thing Belmont did just before joining doesn't seem like a coincidence.

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status ... 5360502788

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status ... 6234979337

[letsgoAces]

Some (seemingly) VERY positive smoke for those of us who are pro Murray to the MVC. This seems like a move made with an invite forthcoming. I think Father Harry is being coy while the final details are being sorted out. The fact that this is the exact same thing Belmont did just before joining doesn't seem like a coincidence.

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status ... 5360502788

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status ... 6234979337

Hmmmmm.....makes me wonder.

[VUGrad1314]

What do we make of this?

https://www.tribstar.com/sports/local_c ... a5b6d.html


Is this neutral or bad news for those of us hoping for Murray State to be invited?