I think the Valley will stay at 10 for the next two seasons. When the TV deal comes up at the end of 2023-2024, money will be used to get Murray State in and by that point Kansas City will be begging us to join.
UT-Arlington is better off in the Sun Belt now where they are.
I also do not see Missouri State leaving anytime soon. They may want to but I do not see any upsides in any other conference taking them.
Part of Kansas City's application for membership is they would go back to Municipal Hall full time. Right now I'm guessing they are staying on campus as much as possible due to COVID.
Neither Kansas City nor UT Arlington have football.