The Valley in 5 Years

[BCPanther]

Oh, it won't surprise me.

I understand it. It matches what the University wants to be.

[VUGrad1314]

While I suppose Missouri State leaving for FBS is a possibility I just don't understand the benefit for the department as a whole. No matter which league you join you're talking a bunch of extra scholarships a huge increase in travel and an experience for the overall department (namely in men's basketball) that won't be as great. If the rumors of the Sun Belt getting $2million per year once their expansion is finalized then maybe it would work but I don't see the SBC going beyond its current 14 teams. CUSA offers very little if any financial incentive and worse basketball. It just doesn't make sense unless the SBC loses someone to the AAC (unlikely in the immediate term I just don't see any Sun Belt team making a move to the AAC at this point especially if it loses Memphis and possibly SMU. The AAC will have to pull from CUSA again and that would make CUSA basketball even worse. The smart play is not always the ambitious play and the smart play is for Missouri State to stay right where they're at and continue to be a department wide leader in the MVC. I am hoping that five years from now we have a stable 12 and the only moves or rumors of moves will be us adding more worthy programs to make the league stronger not replacing those that depart.

[BUFanatic]

I really do hope MoSt stays. That being said, they probably fit in best with the MAC. Enrollment is right up there with the other member schools.

The only thing that might hurt them is Endowment.
MoSt: $170.3 Million

Over Double:
NIU: $80 Million
EMU: $78 Million

Similar:
Bowling Green: $175 Million
Kent State: $146 Million
CMU: $189 Million
Ball State: $213 Million
Akron: $236 Million

Way Out of Range:
Buffalo: $795 Million
Miami (OH): $555 Million
Ohio: $762 Million
Toledo: $454 Million
WMU: $405 Million

Biggest problem would be a natural travel partner which would probably be NIU, they would be by far the most Western member.

For facilities, eyeball estimate is that an average football stadium holds 25k in conference with the largest being 30,255. MoSt would need to add 7k to come to the smallest stadium in conference (24k tie between Ohio and Bowling Green) which could be added by completing the N/S end zones and expanding the East.

JQH would rank second largest in the conference at 11k between the Convocation Center (NIU, 10,000) and the Convocation Center (Ohio, 13,080).

For basketball the MAC currently sits 4 spots below the MVC at 18 vs. 14 but let’s assume we probably crack the top 10 with the addition of Murray and Belmont (along with UIC).

After all this, if MoSt wants to become a “football school”, go ahead and leave the Valley. If they want to be a “basketball school”, stay in the Valley.

[MissouriValleyUnite]

There’s no interest from the MAC towards Missouri St. Anytime the MAC has considered expanding beyond 12, it’s to places that elevate the league demographically, whether it was the WKU/MTSU flirtation this past year (Nashville) or Temple/UMass years ago (eastern exposure). MSU would be a flight for every MAC school, and if you’re flying you want it to be in a market you recruit students/reconnect alumni.

While the MAC has never been interested in MSU, the Sun Belt has a few times over the years. C-USA would also take them as MSU is a more appealing school than ones C-USA has already taken, but MSU probably isn’t interested in a league that far spread out with minimal tv revenue.

[BCPanther]

MSU isn't moving into a league based in an area without expanding population. That defeats their goal as a university.

If they go, they're going south.

[Mikovio]

Yea the MAC is a non starter.

Agree the question is whether they want to be a football school or basketball school. The top Sun Belt team in the NET is Texas State at 119, which would be 6th in the current Valley (and 8th in next year's Valley). The 4 programs they're adding are all sub-200. It would be easier to win their conference tournament but they'd get 15 seeds at best and it'll be 15 or 16 teams sharing revenue from 1 bid. Major basketball revenue decline. But the Sun Belt now has mid-level G5 football, so the question is if that makes it all worth it. The problem with the Sun Belt is they still haven't ever had a top G5 finisher and played in the Access Bowl (usually Cotton or Peach), something even the MAC has done twice. Becoming the next UCF or Boise is easier said than done. It'd be a lot more expensive for kind of a moonshot.

[unipanther99]

The Bears haven't really built an at-large kind of resume since the year they were snubbed with like a 21 RPI many years ago under Barry. They've needed to win the tournament to get in, and it would be the same in the Sun Belt (and maybe easier to win their tournament). So I don't really see it as a big change for them from a basketball perspective.

[PretzelDawg]

It is interesting to consider where the Valley will be in 5 years. I do agree that we have to see what big-time college football will do in the next five years. Will the Big 5 create an organization of its own? If they do, then many of the FCS teams might decide to join with what remains of FBS. Valley football can definitely complete with lower FBS right now. There isn't much difference outside of the Big 5. This could create a different, potentially larger, basketball Valley if this were to happen if the Dakotas decided this was the right time to join for all sports.

[Kyle_Saluki_17]

It is interesting to consider where the Valley will be in 5 years. I do agree that we have to see what big-time college football will do in the next five years. Will the Big 5 create an organization of its own? If they do, then many of the FCS teams might decide to join with what remains of FBS. Valley football can definitely complete with lower FBS right now. There isn't much difference outside of the Big 5. This could create a different, potentially larger, basketball Valley if this were to happen if the Dakotas decided this was the right time to join for all sports.

If the G5 and FCS schools combined in a league, I'd much rather see us go after a WKU or similar schools rather than Dakota schools, if they were interested. Under that landscape, I think they would.

[BEARZ77]

It is interesting to consider where the Valley will be in 5 years. I do agree that we have to see what big-time college football will do in the next five years. Will the Big 5 create an organization of its own? If they do, then many of the FCS teams might decide to join with what remains of FBS. Valley football can definitely complete with lower FBS right now. There isn't much difference outside of the Big 5. This could create a different, potentially larger, basketball Valley if this were to happen if the Dakotas decided this was the right time to join for all sports.

If the G5 and FCS schools combined in a league, I'd much rather see us go after a WKU or similar schools rather than Dakota schools, if they were interested. Under that landscape, I think they would.

That's the scenario[ FCS and G-5 merge] that I'm hoping develops in the next 5 years . If so then there would be a number of possibilities for attractive conference realignment that would serve both basketball and football well. I've always thought a conference that had some combo of W.Kentucky, Murray St, Ark St, Tulsa, UAB, Southern Miss, North Texas, SIU , etc would be ideal. Decent basketball, good baseball, football, decent WBB. While the specifics will not be exactly that, some form of that I think makes sense if the P-5 go exclusive, which is what they want.But who knows, for now I like the MVC next year as a basketball conference and in FCS football there's nothing close, so good spot to be for now.