UCLA - USC to Big Ten

[TBS_20]

All of us know/agree that this is about controlling billions of dollars, seeing as how a P5 football game draws in excess of 60,000 for any Saturday. Eventually, they will walk all over tradition and absorb Friday nights for additional TV revenue, even though high school has claimed Fridays. They might even challenge for some Sunday games or start their seasons in July -- the 18-game season is just around the corner.

There is, however, a breaking point to anything. If the 2020 pandemic hadn't happened (well, we all wish we could say that) there is likely not this much rush to recover the tons of moolah that they didn't get. Alas, it happened and this is where we are.

I still don't think there's enough pure 5-star talent out there to fuel a continued push to NIL-driven semipro football. There isn't that much quality coaching, although the number of endzone cheerleaders can likely double without much hassle. Are there that many thin squealing blondes who are in the transfer portal?

Aside from that, mid-majors baseball will suffer a little when MLB absorbs that as a partner arrangement to offset the fact that it scrubbed a third of its minor leagues two seasons back.

Some of this will come back to Earth.

A lot of words just to say college football is overextended and due for a correction. Basically, it's currently peaking. We never know that. This may not be the peak. Like with any market or asset

[IWokeUpLikeThis]

I doubt that.

[GoSIU88]

Interesting conversation.

The B1G and SEC are no longer collegiate athletic conferences. They're blanket organizations for professional sports teams that happen to play on college campuses. This is about money only and ESPN is driving the truck.

Not sure how it shakes out for Valley schools or FCS football. I suspect the NCAA, as we know it now, will be history. And some of the P5 schools are going to get lost in the shuffle, too.

A merger between the Big XII and remaining Pac 12 schools is imminent. And the almighty South Bend Junior College is at the apex of the trouble. They started all this mess with their massive NBC football contract.

A big loser in this situation could be Wichita (is not a State). They could get left out of any significant realignment and be caught with their wheat hung out to dry.

[TBS_20]

Superconference Realignment

This would assume nobody will block anybody.


B1G: Duke, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin

Four divisions of 5 teams (20 teams)

Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers

Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Minnesota, Nebraska, Oregon, UCLA, USC


SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Houston/Baylor, Kentucky, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Miami, Vanderbilt

Four divisions of 5 teams (20 teams)

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Miami, Tennessee

Clemson, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Louisiana State

Arkansas, Houston/Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M


Big 12 (28 teams because they'll eventually be poached again): Arizona, Arizona State, Boise State, Boston College, Brigham Young, California, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Houston/Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Memphis, North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Stanford, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Syracuse, Utah, Washington, West Virginia, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Four divisions of 7 teams (28 teams)

Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston/Baylor, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Memphis, North Carolina State

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State

Boise State, Brigham Young, California, San Diego State, Stanford, Utah, Washington


Big East (20 teams as there will be four major conferences for basketball): Belmont, Butler, Carleton (Ottawa - top college team in Canada and regularly beat good D1 teams), Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, DePaul, Providence, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Loyola Chicago, Marquette, Seton Hall, St. John's, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Wichita State, Xavier

Four divisions of 5 teams (20 teams)

Carleton, Connecticut, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's

Dayton, Georgetown, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Xavier

Belmont, Butler, DePaul, Loyola Chicago, Marquette

Creighton, Gonzaga, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Wichita State

[VUGrad1314]

If these numbers are to be believed then it's very unlikely we see any kind of exodus of ACC schools to the Big XII I think it's far more likely that the Big XII and Big 10 unite to carve up what they want from the PAC 12 or the PAC 12 stays together (minus the LA schools though I don't think we've seen the last move out of the PAC 12 yet. The new Big XII commissioner is apparently according to an ESPN report still evaluating adding PAC 12 schools as well as schools from other conferences (presumably the AAC (Memphis USF SMU most likely) and\or the MWC (Colorado State Boise State and San Diego State most likely). Also your projection for the Big East is WAY too ambitious. I think (assuming they want to follow the Big 10's lead) they will begin any expansion with Gonzaga and after that I think the only schools that have any shot at being added are Dayton and SLU. MAYBE Richmond or some of the A-10 publics have a chance but I would view that as unlikely. I think the Big East is a private school league through and through with UCONN being a special one-time exception owing to its history with the Catholic 7 in the conference. The only questions that I think are legitimately on the table right now are:

1. Will the remaining schools of the PAC stay together and will they expand? If so I think only a few schools have any chance at being invited (most likely only San Diego State and Colorado State and that's if Colorado lets CSU in and Stanford\CAL get over their hubris and allow a very solid SDSU program into the fold

2. Is the Big 10 done? There has been some speculation about Cal and Stanford as well as Oregon and Washington getting invites but as of now it seems unlikely. I think the Stanford\Cal pairing is attractive to the Big 10 for a host of reasons (San Francisco market even more access to California top flight academics) with Washington being third and Oregon being least attractive. As of right now there is little reason to believe another move by the Big 10 is imminent but the USC UCLA move came completely out of nowhere so who knows?

3. if the PAC 12 breaks apart Where are Washington\Oregon going? The Big 10 is a possibility but I'm feeling like the Big XII is far more likely at this point along with the mountain\Arizona schools. They would get a better payout and it would appear a bump in competition.

4. Will any G5 school get a chance to move up? Right now I'm thinking no. The only chance is if the PAC remains viable and that is far from certain. This really sucks and makes me feel for Memphis San Diego State and Boise State especially who are all probably deserving of inclusion and to a lesser extent other candidate schools like SMU USF and Colorado State but keeping other mid major conferences strong and viable is good for the MVC from a scheduling perspective so this would be the only positive as a fan of the Valley since any realignment at the P5 level almost assuredly results in more bids going to those conferences,

5. What (if anything) will the Big East do? One has to think that they will have to do something but are they and Gonzaga willing to commit to each other? Can they find the right combination of A-10 schools to move the needle for them with or without Gonzaga? I can't believe I'm about to type this sentence but it seems possible that enough of a shakeup in the football conference could cause the Big East to simply become a better version of what the AAC is now in the eyes of the selection committee. That is, struggling mightily to achieve more than say 3 bids. It's possible this is an overreaction but with fewer options than those other conferences whose moves will also make them deeper and stronger basketball leagues you have to have some concern about the Big East being starved a bit in terms of bids. Schools like SMC Wichita State and VCU probably don't have a shot but desperate times could call for desperate measures for both sides.


None of this is good for the MVC in the quest to be a multibid league but that goes without saying. It was already super tough sledding but with more basketball power coalescing into fewer conferences the road only gets harder. I'm still pro-expansion but it would have to be for a perennial top 100 school (South Dakota State is the only semi-realistic option there) unless the fundamentals for a more unproven add are really solid (Saint Thomas really is the only one that I can see that might work Denver has the money but is far away and not committed to basketball Not sure if Bellarmine has the money. Both St Thomas and Bellarmine are probably too new to D1 although it did work out really well when the MVC added Missouri State and UNI who were relatively new to D1 at the time I believe so who knows?) There's also the possibility of a former school returning but that is highly unlikely as that rarely happens unless the school has no other viable option or has proven wholly uncompetitive in their new home (See: Lamar, WAC for an example of this)


Here are the numbers I was referencing at the outset of this post:

https://twitter.com/jjfuller72/status/1 ... 3Fpage%3D2

[BCPanther]

The Big Ten is done unless Notre Dame decides it wants in.

The Pac12 stays the Pac10 and, maybe, adds Gonzaga as an Olympic sports member for a greatly reduced payout.

The ACC doesn't do anything unless Notre Dame decides in wants in.

The SEC is done unless Notre Dame decides it wants in

I thought this was the earth shattering one that cascaded all the way down a couple weeks ago but now I'm kind of leaning to USC/UCLA basically being done in a vacuum. If the Big Ten had any interest in Oregon/Washington/Stanford/Cal it would have happened by now. Notre Dame is the only school that brings the $100M per year that doesn't hurt everyone else's payouts.

[VUGrad1314]

The Big Ten is done unless Notre Dame decides it wants in.

The Pac12 stays the Pac10 and, maybe, adds Gonzaga as an Olympic sports member for a greatly reduced payout.

The ACC doesn't do anything unless Notre Dame decides in wants in.

The SEC is done unless Notre Dame decides it wants in

I thought this was the earth shattering one that cascaded all the way down a couple weeks ago but now I'm kind of leaning to USC/UCLA basically being done in a vacuum. If the Big Ten had any interest in Oregon/Washington/Stanford/Cal it would have happened by now. Notre Dame is the only school that brings the $100M per year that doesn't hurt everyone else's payouts.

I still think there's a chance that the Big XII makes some kind of move in the next few years. I don't think the recent investments in facilities by the candidate schools from the MWC and AAC are any kind of coincidence. And these improvements are certainly not being made with an eye towards staying where they are. It's very possible the PAC 10 stays together maybe they even add one or two schools. I would be surprised if they added Gonzaga because conferences at that level don't typically do FB or Olympics only deals like that though I realize Gonzaga is a truly special case and fits their footprint really well. It's also possible that there is an exodus from the PAC to the Big XII. As I said I'm willing to bet the Big 10 is done for now though I have trouble believing that a combo of Stanford\Cal\Oregon\Washington (assuming they could convince all four) isn't at least revenue neutral for the conference. I get that none of these schools brings enough on their own but one has to think that monopolizing the best brands and markets the West Coast has to offer would count for a lot even if it's not as much as the LA schools bring by themselves. I agree though that the Big 10 is trying to keep their powder dry until they know what Notre Dame is going to do so they want to make absolutely sure they have a spot for the Irish. That said, they're the kind of school you just make a spot for so I am inclined to agree that if they wanted these other schools it would be done by now.

[squirrel]

Really though this indicates something I’ve been fearing for a about 7/8 years now. If Bradley wants to stay in the MVC and it does raise football’s priority, I really think BU would be almost forced to resurrect football, even if they played at Peoria Stadium or Dozer Park (correct me if I’m wrong but I believe the biggest football stadium with berm seating in the area is EP High school? I know Pekin should be bigger but that’s too far away). Of course I would love to see this but it would create a financial and administrative nightmare.

BC to your point, this is the scenario I fear for BU, however I feel that it would be the MVC kicking out non-football playing members. I personally can’t see founding a new league as you described considering that all those (except the Dakotas and Montana) have second priority to FBS teams… (Iowa/Iowa State/MN, Illinois, Missouri, and even the Dakotas/Montana might be groupies in between Iowa/Iowa State/Nebraska)

While football controls (and ruins) everything, Bradley is fine without football. There are enough relevant parties that don't have football and they are already as well-aligned with a top 5 league outside the top 5, that they are still as well-positioned as they can be to have a seat at the highest possible level outside whatever a potential split will be. But they have to solidify their MBB profile. Timing-wise, unlike most of this century, the school is well-positioned to capitalize on movement at the right time.

[unipanther99]

The B1G announced their new media rights deal today. One of the minor tidbits is interesting.

CBS’s initial season in 2023 will include seven football games and both regular season and postseason men’s basketball action, along with the Big Ten Women’s Basketball Tournament final appearing on CBS for the first time.

Their women's tournament occurs at the same time as Arch Madness, I hope this doesn't mean we are getting bumped from our Sunday slot.

[BCPanther]

The B1G announced their new media rights deal today. One of the minor tidbits is interesting.

CBS’s initial season in 2023 will include seven football games and both regular season and postseason men’s basketball action, along with the Big Ten Women’s Basketball Tournament final appearing on CBS for the first time.

Their women's tournament occurs at the same time as Arch Madness, I hope this doesn't mean we are getting bumped from our Sunday slot.

I'm guessing the AAC is losing their slot on that Sunday. I'm guessing we move to 11:00 AM, Big Ten Men's Game at 1:00 and the Women's Final at 3:30.