Another Expansion/Realignment Thread

[BUFanatic]

Lower tier schools aren't folding back into FCS.

First, the access to both the CFP and CFP revenues has never been greater for G5 conferences.

Second, it's career suicide for a university president to go backwards. There's been only 1 school (Idaho) to do so in the last 25 years, and there was so much backlash (their fans actually paid for a "Fire Chuck Staben" banner plane at a bowl game) that it destroyed his career while the athletic department's donations plummeted by over 50% in 2 years. It's simply far too big of a risk for a university president to downgrade to FCS.

All of those schools are not realistic.

I have no idea where things will land, I’m parroting scenario I’ve heard around sports talk and other places. Pure speculation. In this scenario it’s not the individual schools but conferences that would drop.

[BUFanatic]

None of these schools are realistic. Like 0% chance they would even take our call. Ever.

At this stage, SLU or nothing.

Something to consider though… I’ve heard talk of lower tier FBS schools folding back into the FCS due to the consolidation of power between the Power 2 (SEC/B1G) + 1 (Big 12) conferences. ACC should be fine for a while but I foresee that being split up between the B1G and SEC. PAC is gone (makes me cry because I love me some PAC 12 After Dark) and the Big East is in a pretty great position relative to basketball.

In this unlikely scenario we would hold MoSt as well as any others that were looking to jump to FBS. This would also open up the possibility for adding a few former legacy members. Here is a short list of legacy members that come to mind and where I see them…

Tulsa (biased as I really want to see this rivalry renewed)
Butler (probably staying Big East no matter what)
Cincy (could have had them but they caught lightning in a bottle and are secure in the Big12)
Creighton (will not leave Big East)
Louisville (I would imagine if ACC fell apart they land in the SEC… or a conference of SEC rejects)
Memphis (possibility, however I have no idea how football would fit in. I can’t imagine the SEC takes them. SEC rejects conference possibly or ACC grab before they eventually die).
NM State (probably not too far off but way too far west)
NTSU (good chance if we want. Just left a much more powerful CUSA for the American. Return to CUSA or courted by the Valley.)
Wichita St/Loyola (f*** em. I want no conference to want them and no one to play them forcing that program to fold).

Novel list of who we had who we have absolutely no shot…
Houston, Iowa, ISU, Kansas, KState, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, OSU

The rest are either non-DI or not worth mentioning.

Tulsa/Memphis… sure, you’re probably right.

Saying New Mexico St and North Texas State are too good for the Valley…. Not so much.

Those were the only four I gave a possible shot… UNDER THIS SCENARIO… which is SPECULATIVE…

[Bulldog4life24]

I understand this is speculative. I'm just saying they aren't taking our call. Once you go up you don't come back down.

None of these schools are realistic. Like 0% chance they would even take our call. Ever.

At this stage, SLU or nothing.

Something to consider though… I’ve heard talk of lower tier FBS schools folding back into the FCS due to the consolidation of power between the Power 2 (SEC/B1G) + 1 (Big 12) conferences. ACC should be fine for a while but I foresee that being split up between the B1G and SEC. PAC is gone (makes me cry because I love me some PAC 12 After Dark) and the Big East is in a pretty great position relative to basketball.

In this unlikely scenario we would hold MoSt as well as any others that were looking to jump to FBS. This would also open up the possibility for adding a few former legacy members. Here is a short list of legacy members that come to mind and where I see them…

Tulsa (biased as I really want to see this rivalry renewed)
Butler (probably staying Big East no matter what)
Cincy (could have had them but they caught lightning in a bottle and are secure in the Big12)
Creighton (will not leave Big East)
Louisville (I would imagine if ACC fell apart they land in the SEC… or a conference of SEC rejects)
Memphis (possibility, however I have no idea how football would fit in. I can’t imagine the SEC takes them. SEC rejects conference possibly or ACC grab before they eventually die).
NM State (probably not too far off but way too far west)
NTSU (good chance if we want. Just left a much more powerful CUSA for the American. Return to CUSA or courted by the Valley.)
Wichita St/Loyola (f*** em. I want no conference to want them and no one to play them forcing that program to fold).

Novel list of who we had who we have absolutely no shot…
Houston, Iowa, ISU, Kansas, KState, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, OSU

The rest are either non-DI or not worth mentioning.

Tulsa/Memphis… sure, you’re probably right.

Saying New Mexico St and North Texas State are too good for the Valley…. Not so much.

Those were the only four I gave a possible shot… UNDER THIS SCENARIO… which is SPECULATIVE…

[BUFanatic]

.

Something to consider though… I’ve heard talk of lower tier FBS schools folding back into the FCS due to the consolidation of power between the Power 2 (SEC/B1G) + 1 (Big 12) conferences. ACC should be fine for a while but I foresee that being split up between the B1G and SEC. PAC is gone (makes me cry because I love me some PAC 12 After Dark) and the Big East is in a pretty great position relative to basketball.

In this unlikely scenario we would hold MoSt as well as any others that were looking to jump to FBS. This would also open up the possibility for adding a few former legacy members. Here is a short list of legacy members that come to mind and where I see them…

Tulsa (biased as I really want to see this rivalry renewed)
Butler (probably staying Big East no matter what)
Cincy (could have had them but they caught lightning in a bottle and are secure in the Big12)
Creighton (will not leave Big East)
Louisville (I would imagine if ACC fell apart they land in the SEC… or a conference of SEC rejects)
Memphis (possibility, however I have no idea how football would fit in. I can’t imagine the SEC takes them. SEC rejects conference possibly or ACC grab before they eventually die).
NM State (probably not too far off but way too far west)
NTSU (good chance if we want. Just left a much more powerful CUSA for the American. Return to CUSA or courted by the Valley.)
Wichita St/Loyola (f*** em. I want no conference to want them and no one to play them forcing that program to fold).

Novel list of who we had who we have absolutely no shot…
Houston, Iowa, ISU, Kansas, KState, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, OSU

The rest are either non-DI or not worth mentioning.[/quote][/quote]

Tulsa/Memphis… sure, you’re probably right.

Saying New Mexico St and North Texas State are too good for the Valley…. Not so much.

Those were the only four I gave a possible shot… UNDER THIS SCENARIO… which is SPECULATIVE…[/quote][/quote]

I get u. Today (not sure how others on this board feel) as an ND fan and CFB purist has me questioning everything. The day the PAC12 couldn’t possibly leverage a MWC buyout is unfathomable even tho the PAC is in a disadvantageous position.

[TBS_20]

The teams that will go back to FCS are the teams that don't get picked like the new conference and cusa. Nobody you listed is going back to FCS.

Nobody.

[VUGrad1314]

Does SMU leaving the AAC (if it happens they are in ACC Expansion rumors no doubt about trying to get the conference into Texas for network $$) put Wichita State in play? (My guess is probably not as long as Memphis is still there especially if the current media deal remains untouched by this movement.) And if so where do they go?

[TylerDurden]

Does SMU leaving the AAC (if it happens they are in ACC Expansion rumors no doubt about trying to get the conference into Texas for network $$) put Wichita State in play? (My guess is probably not as long as Memphis is still there especially if the current media deal remains untouched by this movement.) And if so where do they go?

Rest assured that media deals will be touched.

Frankly, I'd welcome Wichita State back to the MVC.

Chances are that they're going to be one of the schools who gets left behind because they don't have football. They'll have to decided if they want to continue to play basketball in whatever version of the C-USA transfers the AAC now is. If not, they're probably going to beg the Big East for a spot (unlikely to be reciprocated). I could even see them sniffing around the A10, though they don't fit there at all.

Maybe they'll realize the MVC is where they should be...but probably not.

[oneNEIGHBOR]

I don't believe WSU would consider returning to the Valley in case of an SMU/ Memphis departure. The Shocks hitched their wagon to a conference driven by football, which has positives and negatives. The current deal pays WSU a little over $2M annually, whereas in the MVC it was breakeven. In the event a TV deal is reworked, I'd venture to guess that would still be in the +$1M range. The challenge with being a best-of-the-rest football conference like the AAC is that everyone wants the golden ticket out to the next level. WSU doesn't have any ability to move up without football, and will just have to make due in a conference that is almost constantly unstable. In a worst-case scenario, the Big East has no reason to take us and A10 doesn't make sense geographically. The good thing though is that the teams in the AAC invest heavily into their athletic departments to try and get that ticket to the big show, which breeds a competitive league.

Just checking through the MVC makeup I realized that the 4 schools that have been added since 2017 move the conference further east. So we'd be on a western island by ourselves even compared to back when we were in the MVC.

At the end of the day, I hope going forward Valley teams can secure some home-and-homes with WSU because like all conference realignment, generations of rivalries have been lost along with compelling storylines for fans. The Valley was and is a great basketball conference whether WSU is there or not, so this isn't meant to disparage our old home. As always I'll be rooting for the MVC from afar.

[MissouriValleyUnite]

WSU agreed to a $5 million exit fee with the AAC when they signed their membership agreement. No one's paying a league $5 million to exit unless they're departing for a league with enough tv money to make up that $5 million. Moving forward, there’s only 6 conferences with tv revenue exceeding $5 million/school -- P4, the Pac/MWC survivor, and the Big East after they negotiate a new contract in a year. (Plus the legacy schools of the AAC, but the new members are making sub-$3 M.)

All that to say, WSU doesn’t have one conference move on the board where they don’t come out losing money.

[Chuck A]

WSU agreed to a $5 million exit fee with the AAC when they signed their membership agreement. No one's paying a league $5 million to exit unless they're departing for a league with enough tv money to make up that $5 million. Moving forward, there’s only 6 conferences with tv revenue exceeding $5 million/school -- P4, the Pac/MWC survivor, and the Big East after they negotiate a new contract in a year. (Plus the legacy schools of the AAC, but the new members are making sub-$3 M.)

All that to say, WSU doesn’t have one conference move on the board where they don’t come out losing money.

Whether they lose money or not, they will have to make a
hellacious decision when realignment hits the AAC again. I believe that decision will be to reluctantly return to the Valley. Of all the conferences mentioned, the MVC is their best option/fit. With their inclusion and hopefully a bump in conference power standing with the help of Belmont and Murray State, the Valley could probably get a boost from the mentioned $200,000 payout.