Official 2023-24 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

by **MVCfans** » October 25th, 2023, 5:13 am

Every couple of days we will open a poll for users to predict the end of season finish for the MVC 2023-24 basketball season. We will work in reverse order, concluding with the predicted MVC champion chosen by our users between the last two teams remaining.

Murray State was recently selected as the likely 7th place finisher (results: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=6078 )

Poll 7 - Who will finish in 6th place during the 2023-24 MVC men's basketball season?
-You are choosing the team that you believe will finish in 6th place for this regular season.

Official MVCfans.com - Predictions:
12th Place - Valparaiso
11th Place - Evansville
10th Place - UIC
9th Place - SIU
8th Place - Illinois St
7th Place - Murray State
6h Place .......

**Sponsor**

by **siudawgs** » October 25th, 2023, 7:46 am

Missouri State is better than the sixth-most talented roster so if they are picked here, it's pretty clearly based on the program's track record of perceived underperforming with talented rosters.

Bears fans, how do you see the backcourt rotations playing out with Lee back in the mix?

Also curious if Carper is healthy/expected to give some good minutes in the paint.

by **bradley_townie** » October 25th, 2023, 8:06 am

siudawgs wrote:Missouri State is better than the sixth-most talented roster so if they are picked here, it's pretty clearly based on the program's track record of perceived underperforming with talented rosters.

Bears fans, how do you see the backcourt rotations playing out with Lee back in the mix?

Also curious if Carper is healthy/expected to give some good minutes in the paint.

This is where I am at with Missouri State. Dana Ford has had championship level talent on many of his teams the last several years but hasn't been able to put a complete season together with that talent. I look at the teams remaining and it's hard to make an argument that Missouri State leapfrogs one of them.

by **BEARZ77** » October 25th, 2023, 10:06 am

bradley_townie wrote:
siudawgs wrote:Missouri State is better than the sixth-most talented roster so if they are picked here, it's pretty clearly based on the program's track record of perceived underperforming with talented rosters.

Bears fans, how do you see the backcourt rotations playing out with Lee back in the mix?

Also curious if Carper is healthy/expected to give some good minutes in the paint.

This is where I am at with Missouri State. Dana Ford has had championship level talent on many of his teams the last several years but hasn't been able to put a complete season together with that talent. I look at the teams remaining and it's hard to make an argument that Missouri State leapfrogs one of them.

Perceptions are funny , and while i get the thinking on Mo St , there's certainly another view. Consider MSU has finished t5th, 2nd, 3rd the last 3 seasons or an average finish of 3.3 . Bradley has finished 1,5,8 for an average of 4.6, UNI, 8, 1, 5 for an average of 4.6, and SIU 3, 6, 9, for an average of 6. The only team in the league with a higher average of finish is Drake. So MSU has been far more consistent than the other 3 and overall better. The fashionable thinking is to say MSU has underachieved because they have more talent , but honestly, that's bs . We've had good talent, but no one in this league is significantly out talenting the other solid teams. Ford has some obvious deficits , they're easy to pick out over time watching; yet just as obviously, he's able to beat the majority of the coaches in this league a majority of the time . Talent seems a lazy answer for a situation where no school has a big advantage in recruiting.

That said , as to other questions, Lee , Mason, and Mayo will all play starters minutes . My guess is Lee is held back a bit at first , but will definitely be on the court in late game situations . He's the floor general and Mason is needed as a second scorer to Chance Moore and can handle the point when Lee isn't on the floor. Mayo is the glue guy , the physical defender, the emotional leader , and we look for him to improve his shooting and offensive play. Freshman Davion Hill is in the Mayo mold ; transfer Kramer from SLU is a spot up shooter who is currently injured and will miss the start of the season. It's a quick athletic backcourt.

Carper will play against certain teams and situations. Neither Bensen or Edwards are particularly bulky and go 6'8, 6'9 and about 225. Carper will play against teams that have bigger frontlines we need to match up better with. He's classic big and slow , but has some nice presence around the goal and people forget he was a starter as a soph at Hawaii, but been injured alot since. I like our frontline , could use one more body there , but those 3 + Donovan Clay will battle with most pretty effectively.

by **sivert** » October 25th, 2023, 11:58 am

I got curious about whether we underrate or overrate certain teams.
So I looked at our Official MVCFANS forum predictions vs final Conference standings for 2017-2023.

Here are the average disrespects for each team:

download/file.php?mode=view&id=320

by **sivert** » October 25th, 2023, 11:59 am

And here it is by year:
download/file.php?mode=view&id=321

by **sivert** » October 25th, 2023, 12:12 pm

Here's the average of the absolute values of the differences, which just shows how far away our predictions were, ignoring whether we over-respected or over-disrespected the teams.
download/file.php?mode=view&id=322

Of the teams with many years of data, Missouri State is the most disrespected. But even more than that, it's the most unpredictable.

by **BEARZ77** » October 25th, 2023, 4:40 pm

sivert wrote:Here's the average of the absolute values of the differences, which just shows how far away our predictions were, ignoring whether we over-respected or over-disrespected the teams.
http://mvcfans.com/download/file.php?mode=view&id=322

Of the teams with many years of data, Missouri State is the most disrespected. But even more than that, it's the most unpredictable.

Interesting stuff

by **FunchessonPopcorn** » October 26th, 2023, 8:45 pm

sivert wrote:I got curious about whether we underrate or overrate certain teams.
So I looked at our Official MVCFANS forum predictions vs final Conference standings for 2017-2023.

Here are the average disrespects for each team:

http://mvcfans.com/download/file.php?mode=view&id=320

Good argument for MSU above that reframes my perspective, and a great insight here too. Thanks for pulling it together. Don’t really buy into the wisdom of crowds mentality generally, especially the older and more cynical I get, but maybe I should buy into the wisdom of this crowd.

by **BEARZ77** » October 27th, 2023, 6:38 am

I think the 2 factors, "most disrespected " and "most unpredictable" have fed each other. The time frame of the study is short and covers 2 years , 1 under Lusk,1 under Ford where MSU was picked 1st and finished 7/6 , which are large margins . Those results then led to probable undervaluing MSU the next year, which again led to large margins the other way. Thus "unpredictable"; however if you look at Ford's record in the MVC his range of finish is 2-6 , less variance than you see with UNI 1-8, Bradley 1-8, and others during that same time frame. Ford has been consistent in putting out a competitive product and an overall end result year to year, but he's not won big games, and not been consistent game to game against varying competition. That's why he's evaluated at the level he is.

To me , you can isolate individual coaching skills and make cases on competency using those assessments, but in the end, it's wins and losses , especially in a conference vacuum. Yeah different programs have varying levels of resources etc, but that's the gig, just win baby.