MVC Games Week 11 2023-24

[MissouriValleyUnite]

Can a 19-1 Indiana State and a 17-3 Drake both make the NCAA Tournament?

19-1 Indiana State is a lock. They can lay an egg Friday in STL and have nothing to worry about.

I don't see a path for 17-3 Drake. Their NET is 62, but that doesn't account for 2 more regular season losses. For comparison, Saint Mary's has a 30 NET, San Francisco has a 43 NET, and Gonzaga has a 47 NET. Lunardi has Saint Mary's as a 12-seed and Gonzaga/San Francisco out of the tournament.

[Bulldog4life24]

Updated Pomeroy projections (which figures unexpected results into the calculation)

16-4 Indiana St
15-5 Drake
13-7 Bradley
12-8 SIU
11-9 Belmont, UNI
10-10 Murray St
9-11 Missouri St
7-13 Illinois St, UIC
6-14 Evansville
4-16 Valpo

Based on actual game-by-game predictions

19-1 Indiana St
17-3 Drake
14-6 Bradley
12-8 SIU, Belmont, UNI
10-10 Murray St
8-12 Missouri St
5-15 UIC, Illinois St, Evansville
1-19 Valpo

Can a 19-1 Indiana State and a 17-3 Drake both make the NCAA Tournament?

IMO no, unless Drake and ISUb both make title game at Arch Madness and Drake wins. Drake has bad Q3 losses against UAB and Stephen F Austin to atone for, plus the 30 point drubbing at Belmont. Don't think their resume in Quad wins, especially when combined with NCSOS, would look favorable compared to other bubble teams.

ISUb has better NCSOS and (so far), no bad losses. Plus the net likes their metrics better. so they could probably squeak in, depending on how soft the bubble is

[MissouriValleyUnite]

Dana Ford refuted the notion last night that the game is coached. Ford maintains the game is played, but not really coached.

[TylerDurden]

Can a 19-1 Indiana State and a 17-3 Drake both make the NCAA Tournament?

19-1 Indiana State is a lock. They can lay an egg Friday in STL and have nothing to worry about.

I don't see a path for 17-3 Drake. Their NET is 62, but that doesn't account for 2 more regular season losses. For comparison, Saint Mary's has a 30 NET, San Francisco has a 43 NET, and Gonzaga has a 47 NET. Lunardi has Saint Mary's as a 12-seed and Gonzaga/San Francisco out of the tournament.

I'd like for that to be true, but Indiana State has a quality win problem and a not-so-great nonconference SOS (288 per KenPom). If they lose in the first round of Arch Madness in the hypothetical, that would mean they absorb a loss to the 8/9 seed - an Illinois State/UIC/Evansville/Valpo type, which is a bad thing.

Their record would look gaudy, but we've seen that not be enough.

Drake has better wins between the two, including the first head-to-head, but also worse losses.

I think they're both good teams, but if you leave your fate up to the committee, they're sure to let you down. Neither should lose before the Arch Madness final if they want to be in the mix.

[TylerDurden]

The Bradley @ SIU game is insane. SIU was up by 21 at half...it's a 3 point game at the under 4 timeout.

[tribecalledquest]

Mullins trying to lose the game by slowing everything WAY DOWN on each SIU offensive possession.

[MissouriValleyUnite]

Braves have stormed from 23 down in the 2nd half in Carbondale to tie it!!!

[MissouriValleyUnite]

BU takes the lead!!!

[TylerDurden]

BU wins it with a defensive stop at the end. wow

[MissouriValleyUnite]

Has there ever been an MVC game where a team came back from down 23 in the 2nd half to win?

There were games like WSU@MSU in 2014 with a 19-point 2nd half deficit, but I can't ever recall a 23-point comeback.