Is The Missouri Valley A 2-Bid League?

[bradley_townie]

If the season ended today, the biggest knock against Indiana State is they didn't manage to snag a marquee win in the non-conference and people will say they didn't beat anyone of note outside their conference. Their non-con schedule was pretty soft outside of Alabama and Michigan State.

The biggest knock against Drake is the SFA loss. The UAB loss isn't terrible.

The biggest knock against Bradley is the Cleveland State game. I wouldn't call losing to a 105 KenPom team in Duquesne a "bad" loss. Murray is better than a lot of people thought they'd be too.

[BuBrave2006]

If Drake and/or Indiana State get to 17-3 (or maybe even Bradley considering what they'd have to do to get to 17-3) and lose on sunday in STL, they are both 100% in. I understand the paranoia of assuming the conference is going to get screwed, but no one has hardly ever gotten screwed with a resume that Indiana state would have in that scenario and Drake wouldn't be far behind. Let's all walk back from the ledge a little bit.

The concern for me is Indiana State and/or Drake getting there and avoiding bad losses.

Those teams can only lose to each other UNI and SIU at this point. Any other loss is devastating.

A road loss to Murray, Missouri State or Belmont isn't devastating. Kenpom only has Drake as a 6 point favorite on Wednesday. Yeah a loss would be bad but it wouldn't kill them. I agree there isn't a ton of room for error, but if you tell me they get to 17-3, they're getting in. If you look at the metrics and actually look at the numbers, it's pretty concrete.

[TylerDurden]

If Drake and/or Indiana State get to 17-3 (or maybe even Bradley considering what they'd have to do to get to 17-3) and lose on sunday in STL, they are both 100% in. I understand the paranoia of assuming the conference is going to get screwed, but no one has hardly ever gotten screwed with a resume that Indiana state would have in that scenario and Drake wouldn't be far behind. Let's all walk back from the ledge a little bit.

The concern for me is Indiana State and/or Drake getting there and avoiding bad losses.

Those teams can only lose to each other UNI and SIU at this point. Any other loss is devastating.

A road loss to Murray, Missouri State or Belmont isn't devastating. Kenpom only has Drake as a 6 point favorite on Wednesday. Yeah a loss would be bad but it wouldn't kill them. I agree there isn't a ton of room for error, but if you tell me they get to 17-3, they're getting in. If you look at the metrics and actually look at the numbers, it's pretty concrete.

Unfortunately, we've seen the numbers be ignored.

I think the MVC has three teams that are NCAA-caliber in Drake, Indiana State and Bradley.

I'm not sure the MVC has three teams that currently have an NCAA-worthy at-large resume. They could get in the conversation, but that is dependent on what happens around the country.

A team like UCF, for instance, has wins over Kansas and Texas, and sits four spots behind Bradley in the current NET rankings.

If you were picking head-to-head, today for the last spot in the tournament, are you taking an 11-6 team with a win over Kansas and at Texas or 16-3 Indiana State whose best win is at Bradley?

The numbers say Indiana State (NET 26, no bad losses) vs. UCF (NET 67, with one Q4 loss), but I can nearly guarantee that the committee, at this moment would take UCF.

What we should collectively hope for is a soft bubble and three teams with gaudy records who don't lose to anyone but each other. If that happens, we take our chances with high NETs and 25+ wins.

[Adunk33]

I'm saying yes but only if they have no more than 2 losses and play a close, entertaining game on Sunday in STL. Give CBS execs a peek into what they could do if they got in.

[BEARZ77]

I agree with Tyler Durden;I've just listened to too many pundits over the years explain away glittering records by MM for lack of Q1 wins or for a bad loss , and conversely promote P-5 because of a couple home court conference wins over ranked teams or even worse 2 wins in a p-5 conference tourney with half the teams already in the field and cruising. The criteria is slanted and the room has more p-5 voters than not . You're also going to have some very good MM this year who are used to NCAA bids , that are more on the bubble if they lose their conference tourneys, teams like FAU, Gonzaga, San Diego St, so that bears watching as well. With as few as 3-5 at large bids available to non P-5's , even 2 is a tall order.

[purple&orange]

The Field of 68 has Indiana State as an 11 and Drake as a 12 on a graphic I saw on Twitter a couple hours ago.

Both are tournament quality and Bradley is knocking on the door, although I imagine the Hickman injury won't get the kindness other injuries might.


The issue is resumes for the MVC are made in November, December with many chances to hurt yourself where in the Power 5 resumes are made January-March, either at home or neutral sites where it seems a conference tournament is given double the importance.

Take a look at Indiana (not that I think they are going anywhere close to the bubble) but they've done NOTHING to get themselves a look thus far but they'll get chances over the next two months and if they hit on a few of them the narrative becomes how they've grown as the season comes along, credit for playing Kansas close at home, etc.......

I think both Indiana State and Drake can/will beat someone in the tournament provided they get there but the if they split my fear is the win looks nice but the loss looks worse than the win in the eyes of the committee.

[ColonialBulldog]

The Field of 68 has Indiana State as an 11 and Drake as a 12 on a graphic I saw on Twitter a couple hours ago.

Bracketmatrix.com is a site that averages all bracket projections across the web. It's updated 2-3 times a week and currently averages 76 different projections. By March the site will have ~120 projections and update daily.

The most recent update was extremely encouraging if you're hoping for a 2-Bid Valley. Here is what the 78 projections predict:

Sycamores only: 44
Bulldogs only: 19
Both Drake and ISU: 13

13/78 might not seem like a lot, but its the best I've seen this late in the year since 2021.

[Birdfan2018]

I think that IF Indiana State ends up 19-1, Drake ends up 18-2, and Drake wins in a close game against Indiana State in St. Louis, both teams get into the tournament.

Feb 3—-Drake @ Indiana State
Feb 10- Drake @ Bradley
Mar 3—-Drake vs Bradley

Jan 27-Indiana State vs Bradley
Feb 3—Indiana State vs Drake

What If:
Indiana State 19-1 (current NET 26)
Drake 18-2 (current NET 42)
Bradley 15-5 (current NET 63)
And:
Bradley beats Drake & Indiana State in close games down in St Louis?

[IllinoisState]

No. They will do everything in their power to prevent it from happening.

This 100%. I answered “yes” because we SHOULD be if these top 3 keep taking care of business. Be ready for the .500 P6 schools to get in over us. I wish someone would try to start another tournament that rewarded performance instead of market size like the NCAAt did when I was growing up.

2006/2007 seems like a lifetime ago.

Even around that time the MVC was getting looked over. 2006 Missouri State with a 21 RPI.

[jturner38]

https://www.valleyhoopsinsider.com/mult ... onference/

This was really informative for this conversation. If the tournament started today both would be in with Drake having the AQ since they Beat INSU at home.

Bradley's shot is only the tournament as of right now.