Is The Missouri Valley A 2-Bid League?

[BCPanther]

if they win out until the finals they would be 29-5. that should be enough.

I said this before and I'll say it again: Indiana State has a quality wins problem.

Now the have a bad loss problem with nothing to balance it out.

They're a good team. They are definitely one of the best 68 teams in the country. That doesn't mean they're getting at at-large bid if they lose in St. Louis.

100% this.

Their schedule put them in a spot where they had to beat either Alabama or Michigan State and they didn't get either done. The fact that they'll only get one of Drake/Bradley in StL hurts too because you aren't going to have the good win to pair with the 'good loss' if you get beat by one of them on Sunday. UNI and SIU aren't boat anchors numbers wise but they are also probably going to just miss being Q2 wins.

I think they've still got a shot but Dayton HAS to win the A10 tournament, FAU HAS to win the American tournament, Gonzaga or St Mary's HAS to win the WCC tournament. You get to the point where an awful lot of things have to go just right

[ColonialBulldog]

It felt like Indiana State could drop one in the regular season and one to Bradley/Drake in St. Louis and still be fine. But of all the games remaining Illinois State at home would be the worst one to drop. Although UIC at home and @ Valpo would be really bad too.

If you are looking for an optimistic silver lining, the Sycamores "only" dropped eight spots, falling from 20 to 28 in NET Rankings. No top 30 team has ever been left out of the tournament so I think its way too premature to say at-large hopes are dead. The margin for error in the remainder of the season is probably gone though.

[IllinoisState]

It felt like Indiana State could drop one in the regular season and one to Bradley/Drake in St. Louis and still be fine. But of all the games remaining Illinois State at home would be the worst one to drop. Although UIC at home and @ Valpo would be really bad too.

If you are looking for an optimistic silver lining, the Sycamores "only" dropped eight spots, falling from 20 to 28 in NET Rankings. No top 30 team has ever been left out of the tournament so I think its way too premature to say at-large hopes are dead. The margin for error in the remainder of the season is probably gone though.

No NET top 30 school, but top 30 RPI schools have and NET is fairly recent.

[Adunk33]

It felt like Indiana State could drop one in the regular season and one to Bradley/Drake in St. Louis and still be fine. But of all the games remaining Illinois State at home would be the worst one to drop. Although UIC at home and @ Valpo would be really bad too.

If you are looking for an optimistic silver lining, the Sycamores "only" dropped eight spots, falling from 20 to 28 in NET Rankings. No top 30 team has ever been left out of the tournament so I think its way too premature to say at-large hopes are dead. The margin for error in the remainder of the season is probably gone though.

No NET top 30 school, but top 30 RPI schools have and NET is fairly recent.

We have to stop referring to metrics that are no longer relevant. Mid Majors figured out how to make the RPI work, so the NCAA changed the system to the NET, which is all that matters.

This will be considered a bad loss for the Trees and will be pointed to as the reason they’re in the “first 4 out” should they not win it in STL.

[TylerDurden]

It felt like Indiana State could drop one in the regular season and one to Bradley/Drake in St. Louis and still be fine. But of all the games remaining Illinois State at home would be the worst one to drop. Although UIC at home and @ Valpo would be really bad too.

If you are looking for an optimistic silver lining, the Sycamores "only" dropped eight spots, falling from 20 to 28 in NET Rankings. No top 30 team has ever been left out of the tournament so I think its way too premature to say at-large hopes are dead. The margin for error in the remainder of the season is probably gone though.

No NET top 30 school, but top 30 RPI schools have and NET is fairly recent.

We have to stop referring to metrics that are no longer relevant. Mid Majors figured out how to make the RPI work, so the NCAA changed the system to the NET, which is all that matters.

This will be considered a bad loss for the Trees and will be pointed to as the reason they’re in the “first 4 out” should they not win it in STL.

The committee will be put to the test with this year's Mountain West. You could argue for six bids, as all six of their contenders are in the top 50 of the NET ratings.

I'm pretty certain they won't get more than four because my guess is that the committee decides that Q1 wins over MWC teams aren't as valuable as Q1 wins for Big 12/B1G/ACC/BE/SEC/Pac 12 teams because, you know, the system is only good when it tells you want you want it to tell you.

[bradley_townie]

The committee will be put to the test with this year's Mountain West. You could argue for six bids, as all six of their contenders are in the top 50 of the NET ratings.

I'm pretty certain they won't get more than four because my guess is that the committee decides that Q1 wins over MWC teams aren't as valuable as Q1 wins for Big 12/B1G/ACC/BE/SEC/Pac 12 teams because, you know, the system is only good when it tells you want you want it to tell you.

The solution is clear. More quads! Introducing Quad 1A. Home wins over Teams 1-15, Neutral 1-25, Away 1-40. All but guarantees those pesky mid-majors only see a few Q1A games a year at most, saving room in the tourney for the REAL basketball teams.

[Birdfan2018]

It felt like Indiana State could drop one in the regular season and one to Bradley/Drake in St. Louis and still be fine. But of all the games remaining Illinois State at home would be the worst one to drop. Although UIC at home and @ Valpo would be really bad too.

If you are looking for an optimistic silver lining, the Sycamores "only" dropped eight spots, falling from 20 to 28 in NET Rankings. No top 30 team has ever been left out of the tournament so I think its way too premature to say at-large hopes are dead. The margin for error in the remainder of the season is probably gone though.

Indiana State plays consecutive games against:
Valparaiso
UIC
Evansville
Winning those game’s may still drop their NET out of the Top 30
Depending on what Murray State does between now and their last game (which is at Indiana State), that game could drop Indiana State in the NET even if they win.

[jturner38]

It felt like Indiana State could drop one in the regular season and one to Bradley/Drake in St. Louis and still be fine. But of all the games remaining Illinois State at home would be the worst one to drop. Although UIC at home and @ Valpo would be really bad too.

If you are looking for an optimistic silver lining, the Sycamores "only" dropped eight spots, falling from 20 to 28 in NET Rankings. No top 30 team has ever been left out of the tournament so I think its way too premature to say at-large hopes are dead. The margin for error in the remainder of the season is probably gone though.

Indiana State plays consecutive games against:
Valparaiso
UIC
Evansville
Winning those game’s may still drop their NET out of the Top 30
Depending on what Murray State does between now and their last game (which is at Indiana State), that game could drop Indiana State in the NET even if they win.

They wont drop if they blow those teams out.

[Birdfan2018]

It felt like Indiana State could drop one in the regular season and one to Bradley/Drake in St. Louis and still be fine. But of all the games remaining Illinois State at home would be the worst one to drop. Although UIC at home and @ Valpo would be really bad too.

If you are looking for an optimistic silver lining, the Sycamores "only" dropped eight spots, falling from 20 to 28 in NET Rankings. No top 30 team has ever been left out of the tournament so I think its way too premature to say at-large hopes are dead. The margin for error in the remainder of the season is probably gone though.

Indiana State plays consecutive games against:
Valparaiso
UIC
Evansville
Winning those game’s may still drop their NET out of the Top 30
Depending on what Murray State does between now and their last game (which is at Indiana State), that game could drop Indiana State in the NET even if they win.

They wont drop if they blow those teams out.

Those teams ranked behind Indiana State are all going to have multiple opportunities to win Quad 1 games between now and when the NCAA Tournament field is announced. Indiana State will have zero opportunities.

[bradley_townie]

Those teams ranked behind Indiana State are all going to have multiple opportunities to win Quad 1 games between now and when the NCAA Tournament field is announced. Indiana State will have zero opportunities.

There's a decent chance Drake sneaks into the top 50 and becomes a quad 1 win on a neutral court. Bradley is a longer shot at 62, but it's possible. For that to happen, Drake and Bradley are likely sitting at 2 and 3 in seeding, so Indiana State likely only gets a shot at one of them at Arch Madness.