Is The Missouri Valley A 2-Bid League?

[TylerDurden]

"Top-end wins" are a function of access to opportunity. Especially at home.
 
The metrics are the best, most unbiased tools out there. They neutralize for all those differences in marquee wins, schedule strength, etc. When the metrics across the board - unanimously for the Big 6 metrics - all agree a team should be in, it's arrogant for humans to say we know better than all the metrics. They have a much better track record and objectivity than humans do.

Teams with exactly Indiana State's combo of 1 Q1 win, top-40 NET (28), top-50 resume avg (40), 40%+ winning% in Q1+2 (50%)? 4-for-4 in making the tournament:

Kinda. Indiana State had fewer chances, true enough, but they also went 1-4. They didn't take advantage of their opportunities. Their winning % in Q1 games is the worst of any team in that graphic.

If they were 4-1 vs. Q1, they're in and this isn't a discussion.

Again, I think Indiana State is a tournament-worthy team. I'm just pointing out the rationale that will be used to keep them out.

[Birdfan2018]

"Top-end wins" are a function of access to opportunity. Especially at home.
 
The metrics are the best, most unbiased tools out there. They neutralize for all those differences in marquee wins, schedule strength, etc. When the metrics across the board - unanimously for the Big 6 metrics - all agree a team should be in, it's arrogant for humans to say we know better than all the metrics. They have a much better track record and objectivity than humans do.

Teams with exactly Indiana State's combo of 1 Q1 win, top-40 NET (28), top-50 resume avg (40), 40%+ winning% in Q1+2 (50%)? 4-for-4 in making the tournament:

Kinda. Indiana State had fewer chances, true enough, but they also went 1-4. They didn't take advantage of their opportunities. Their winning % in Q1 games is the worst of any team in that graphic.

If they were 4-1 vs. Q1, they're in and this isn't a discussion.

Again, I think Indiana State is a tournament-worthy team. I'm just pointing out the rationale that will be used to keep them out.

How many Quad 1 games did Indiana State lose at home?

[TylerDurden]

How many Quad 1 games did Indiana State lose at home?

It doesn't matter. Game location is already factored into NET.

We can bitch about home games, but it doesn't change the facts before us.

[Birdfan2018]

How many Quad 1 games did Indiana State lose at home?

It doesn't matter. Game location is already factored into NET.

We can bitch about home games, but it doesn't change the facts before us.

So if everything is already facts into the NET, then how bout we just use the NET to select the at-large bids?

[MissouriValleyUnite]

Committee chair/SWAC Commissioner Charles McLelland is getting asked about Indiana State on CBSSN right now. He says the Missouri Valley did a great job this season and is providing the committee with a lot of information. Mentions that there are a lot of things they look beyond Q1/Q2 wins (hinting at metrics, obviously).

Another case of a positive answer from McLelland. It looks to me that Indiana State has his personal vote, but it'll come down to whether the other committee members think the same as him.

[BCPanther]

The Valley is less aggressive in looking for and getting games the Mountain West and WCC get - for example. Now, those two leagues are open to playing each other and that helps.

I know I'm a broken record - but we are fooling ourselves if we think MVC coaches REALLY want hard schedules. I'm not sure many of them even think about an at large bid when putting the schedule together. It's way down the list of their concerns.

Forget the P6 leagues. Why will the Mountain West get way more bids than the MVC again this year?

There has to be the will and the resources spent to get better schedules. It is possible.

You have to be willing to go on the road. You have to be willing to take uncomfortable games.

There's one coach in the league that does it and then everybody bitches about being .500ish in the non-con and then doing well in the league.

We'd be so much better off if everybody did that.

UNI got into a good tournament. That's probably more by luck and relationships. It has nothing to do with willing to go on the road and willingness to take uncomfortable games. Choosing to go to UNT or USF isn't exactly moving the needle for the committee.

The reality is that these road/uncomfortable games that the MWC is taking have a lot to do with geography. The Big 10, ACC, and Big 12 have a gag order on scheduling MVC, A10, and MWC teams for one off games. The only time those games are scheduled are if the team is expected to be 250+ in NET or if there's an MTE. (See Illinois-Valpo). The Pac 12 does not have the same type of mandate and regularly schedules WCC and MWC teams.

UNI got into that tournament because we've played well there in the past. Look at the list of teams that have played at Atlantis 3 times and tell me which one isn't like the others.

Games like USF, Richmond, Toledo and North Texas absolutely move the needle. Playing those games give you additional Q1/2 opportunities that lift your NET that give other teams in this league a chance to play extra Q 1/2 games in league play.

[tribecalledquest]

Bradley didn’t play a single P6 team this year and had one of the best non-conference schedules in the league and in the program in along time. You don’t have to play P6 games to have a good schedule.

[ColonialBulldog]

UNI got into that tournament because we've played well there in the past. Look at the list of teams that have played at Atlantis 3 times and tell me which one isn't like the others.

Games like USF, Richmond, Toledo and North Texas absolutely move the needle. Playing those games give you additional Q1/2 opportunities that lift your NET that give other teams in this league a chance to play extra Q 1/2 games in league play.[/quote][/quote]

I don't know. Before the season began USF, Richmond, Toledo sounds pretty darn similar to SLU, UAB, and Nevada.

And I don't really see how other teams are supposed to schedule on past success in a tournament when they don't have that.

[Bulldog2323]

I'm going with one of these two things is going to happen:
1. Indiana State is going to get a surprise 10 seed and be no where near the cut line after all. This situation always happens with someone.
2. Indiana State is going to miss the cut by no more than 2 spots.

Obviously I hope for the first.

[tribecalledquest]

I'm going with one of these two things is going to happen:
1. Indiana State is going to get a surprise 10 seed and be no where near the cut line after all. This situation always happens with someone.
2. Indiana State is going to miss the cut by no more than 2 spots.

Obviously I hope for the first.

I kind of agree.